It’s cringeworthy, cheesy and more politically driven than the House of Commons, but Eurovision is back, and I’m betting on it. Vienna host the final on Saturday 16 May and while there’s been plenty of controversy before a sequenced onesie has even been donned, the betting markets are open and, as ever, there’s value to be had.
TL; DR – My Eurovision Betting Tips for 2026
| Bet | Bookie | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Greece to win | William Hill | 5/1 | 3 |
| France top 3 | BetMGM | 6/4 | 1 |
| UK to finish last | William Hill | 2/1 | 1 |
| Malta to win | William Hil | 55/1 | 0.5 |
*Odds correct at 10:30 BST on 13/05/2026. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Bet 1: Greece to Win
That’s right. I might be the only punter on the planet right now opposing Finland’s Flamethrower, but I just can’t stomach the cringe lavished on us by Linda Lampenius’ fiery fiddle and Pete Parkkonen’s screeching vocals priced at even money.
Out of the big three – Finland, Greece and Denmark – Greece at 5/1 has soared to the top of my list. A perfect mix of Eurovision cheese and a throwback to those old enough to remember 90s party-rap/pop.
As we know, visuals go a long way in grabbing the public vote, and while the judges will be looking for a more technically sound performance, we just want to see big, brash and a bit of comedy thrown in for good measure. Greece tick each of those boxes.
Putting the betting hat back on for a minute, it’s been interesting to see how the market has reacted since they progressed from Semi-Final 1, with odds shortening from 12/1 in places to 5/1 as we head into Saturday’s final.
They’ll bring the noise and nostalgia crucial for a winning act, and the markets are supporting them as much as any of the big three. Greece to win Eurovision 2026 is my NAP.
Bet 2: France to Finish Top 3
Sacre bleu, the French to finish in the top 3? Who would have predicted that 12 months ago? Even though a former Eurovision powerhouse of the 50s, 60s and 70s, our retreating neighbours have failed to reach the podium since 1991.
But could Monroe, with what can only be described as an intense tribute to Britney Spears’ Hit Me Baby One More Time, break the mould? Early signs suggest that she could.
What’s interesting about France’s chances is that they are one of the favourites to win the jury vote, alongside the iconic European powerhouse of… Australia.
The shift back to an equal split of votes between the public and the jury is key here. As our frog-eating cousins, they can generally rely on us to give them a helping hand as long as they keep the tariffs on the Channel Tunnel low so we can escape the wind and rain, but the rest of Europe hasn’t always been as accommodating.
Like Greece, Monroe has created a visually dramatic set, rumoured to include a 30-metre catwalk and more smoke than a Texas roadhouse. The public will love it, the jury is already on board, and all signs lead to breaking onto that podium at 6/4 with BetMGM.
Bet 3: United Kingdom to Finish Last
Long gone are the days of the UK being there or thereabouts in Eurovision. The likes of Sandie Shaw, Lulu, Cliff Richard, Bucks Fizz and Katrina and the Waves are now nothing more than a distant memory. One of which some of us are happy not to relive, but that’s by the by.
Sam Ryder bucked the trend in 2022 with a second-place finish, but that was our only top 10 finish since 2010. In that time, we’ve had three last-place finishes, and if it wasn’t for some generous voting from our rapidly diminishing European allies, it could have been a lot worse.
It’s ironic that the only thing that could save us is a backlash against the host nation, Austria, in the voting. Their refusal to banish Israel has led to the boycott of five nations, namely Iceland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain and one of the few who used to actually vote for us because we buy lots of Guinness from them, Ireland.
Disappointingly, even World Wars and genocide claims are not enough to save Look Mum No Computer. They even went as far as to name their song, Eins, Zwei, Drei in German, of all things, just to hammer home their disinterest in Eurovision this year. Smh.
Anyway, 2/1 with one of the best online bookies, William Hill, to finish last. Lock it down.
Bet 4: Malta as the Long Shot
Let’s finish off with something a little more positive and move away from old Blighty to the beautiful island of Malta. Now, don’t get me wrong, no win in 37 years and only their second appearance since 2021 means that Aidan and his song Bella are going to have to pull up some trees, but stranger things have happened.
Some suggest that the song is what you would get if you ordered Adele off Temu, but not me. Aiden delivers a powerful rendition of a song that epitomises Malta in its purest form: beautiful (Bella), energetic, charismatic, colourful, and cheap wine. OK, not the latter, but you get where I’m going with this.
And let’s not underestimate the power of having a Maltese superstar in Aidan flying the flag, with no fewer than 12 number-one singles to his name. We’re going to gloss over the fact that he only finished second in Malta’s very own Eurovision Song Contest in 2022, and instead look at odds of 55/1 with BetMGM to get us excited.
You can add a bit of cover here, taking them to finish in the top five at 9/1, or be a hero and say “I was there” by backing them on the nose for all the cheese. Ejja minn hemm!
