Rory McIlroy’s odds to win the 2025 Scottish Open have drifted from 15/2 to 11/1 with some bookies as he leads the PGA Power Rankings heading into the 90th edition of this now must-play tournament.
For most, “The Scottish” is seen as the curtain-raiser for the main event at the British Open in Portrush next week. However, that’s a hot take that does a grave injustice to what is now one of the strongest fields in world golf.
Since the PGA Tour and DP World Tour’s decision to co-sanction the Scottish Open, there has been a significant boost in prize money, up to a handsome $9,000,000 for the week.
Granted, the milkshake doesn’t always bring all the boys and their yardage books. But, as this is the only chance to prep on a true links setup at The Renaissance Club before they hop across the water to Portrush, the field is stacked.
Why Have Rory McIlroy’s Odds Drifted?
| Monday | Today | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy Odds | 15/2 | 11/1 | + 34/86% |
The markets have been open since Monday morning and, like most tournaments, we’ve seen significant movement, especially at the top.
Like Rory, the favourite to win the Scottish Open, Scottie Scheffler has also seen his odds drift from as short as 3/1 to 9/2 in places. To put this into context, these are numbers we’ve not seen since a prime Tiger Woods used to prowl the fairways, such has been the Americans’ dominance this year.
Rory fans needn’t be alarmed. Not a lot has changed since Monday morning in terms of his chances, and he still heads in as a justified second favourite.
The reality is that, from the punters' perspective, both he and Scheffler were too short to begin with. As soon as you start to dabble under the 10/1 mark to win a golf tournament with 156 of the world’s best, the casual weekend warrior gets turned off quicker than a quadruple bogey on their opening hole of the Saturday Medal.
Focus then moves to the middle of the pack. The likes of Tommy Fleetwood at 20/1 with Betfred, Victor Hovland at 35/1 with BetVictor, Adam Scott at 40/1 with bet365 and even the immortal Justin Rose at 100/1 with Unibet look like cracking value bets at odds that won’t just cover the price of a pack of new Titleist Pro V1’s.
As a result, the bookies cut Genesis Scottish Open odds in the midfield and lengthen those up top, hence Rory McIlroy’s odds drift.
Is McIlroy Still a Value Bet at the Scottish Open?
Absolutely. In fact, he looks like the value bet for the week.
Granted, his form following his historic Masters win has been a little drab, and he’s talked about how hard he’s found it to motivate himself after decades of chasing that Green Jacket.
But the US Open felt like a sliding door moment for the now five-time major Champion. He ground out a final-round 67 and a T19 finish at the US Open—a time when he would have rather been locked in a room with Patrick Cantlay for 24 hours than hacking around one of the world's hardest golf courses, such was his disillusionment with the game.
He then jetted off to the Travelers, where we started to see more of the Rory of old. A T-6 finish showed glimpses of Northern Ireland’s greatest export getting back to his best.
And let’s not forget that McIlroy has won the Scottish Open as recently as 2023, where he pipped home-town hero Bob MacIntyre to victory. That 2-iron into 18 is still one of the coolest shots ever seen and epitomised the clutch nature that Rory possesses.
He currently sits at the top of the PGA Tour Power Rankings, ahead of Scottie Scheffler, which adds a good amount of weight to his chances for the week.
His latest odds shift has been nothing more than a market adjustment in our opinion, and the more they drift, the more value he becomes.
Two Alternative 100/1+ Long Shots for the Scottish Open
Each of the last three Scottish Opens have had someone priced 100/1+ at the start of the week make their way into the money places – Roman Langasque (266/1, 2024), Byeong Hun An (125/1, 2023), Tom Kim (300/1, 2022) – and we’re going to look at who could make it in 2025 from the best golf betting sites.
Pick #1: Daniel Brown – 150/1 Unibet
When we talk about horses for courses, few fit the bill more than Daniel Brown this week.
Fresh off a first career win at the BMW International Open, Brown has slowly crept his way up the Official World Golf Rankings to the dizzy heights of 104th. Now, this may not seem all that impressive, but he entered the season at 156, and his game is trending right now.
Two results from last season make us love a 150/1 each-way punt. Tied 10th in The Open at Royal Troon and fourth in the Irish Open at Royal County Down. He loves the test that links golf brings and if he gets those irons dialled in this week, an each-way bet looks a great shout.
Pick #2: Michael Kim – 150/1 Spreadex
When we get into the realms of 100/1 longshots, we have to accept that players are going to be streaky. If you opened the golfing dictionary for the term “streaky”, Michael Kim’s name would be there.
The American has had a good year by all accounts. He’s jumped from 156th to 55th in the OWGR, and while still searching for that first professional win, he’s got six top 16 finishes already.
With the forecast this week set fair and, relatively for Scotland at least, warm, it should suit these US-based longshots, and Kim is the best of the bunch.