Anticipation is building ahead of the new Premier League season, with eyes now turning to predictions, punts, and potential breakout stars.
And few debates are more thrilling than the race for the Golden Boot. With Mohamed Salah currently the reigning top scorer, can Erling Haaland reclaim the crown? Or will Arsenal's new marquee signing, Victor Gyökeres, enter the conversation?
EPL Top Scorer Odds & Probabilities
The following top scorer odds and implied probabilities are sourced from bet365 (correct as of 28/07/2025 at 7:40).
| Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | 6/5 | 45.5% |
| Mohamed Salah | 9/2 | 18.2% |
| Alexander Isak | 5/1 | 16.7 |
| Victor Gyökeres | 10/1 | 9.1% |
| Hugo Ekitike | 14/1 | 6.7% |
| Joao Pedro | 16/1 | 5.9% |
| Cole Palmer | 20/1 | 4.8% |
| Ollie Watkins | 25/1 | 3.8% |
| Dominic Solanke | 33/1 | 2.9% |
| Omar Marmoush | 40/1 | 2.4% |
Erling Haaland (6/5)
Haaland didn’t have his most explosive season in 2024/25, but he still bagged 22 goals. It's credit to the high standards of the Norwegian that we would consider a season where only Salah bettered his goals-per-game ratio (0.76 vs Haaland’s 0.69) as not his best.
The City striker has already won the Golden Boot twice (2022/23 & 2023/24), including a record-breaking 36-goal campaign. He’s still City’s chief penalty taker, and leads the line for the league’s most prolific attack in 4 of the last 5 seasons.
Yes, Kevin De Bruyne is gone. But City have signed Rayan Cherki, who led all U21 players in Europe's top 5 leagues for both chances created and expected assists last season.
With City expected to return to their free-scoring best, Haaland remains the standout favourite to reclaim the top scorer crown.
Verdict: A safe pick, but short odds leave little room for upside.
Mohamed Salah (9/2)
While Haaland is the favourite, it’s Mohamed Salah who enters the season as defending Golden Boot winner.
The Egyptian continues to defy logic – age, system, teammates – none of it matters. He scored 29 goals last season, his second-best Premier League total ever, and he's never dropped below 19 goals in a campaign since joining Liverpool 8 years ago.
Salah’s consistency is unmatched. He’s now the 5th-highest scorer in Premier League history and remains Liverpool’s focal point. If City take time to get back to their best post-De Bruyne, Salah could go back-to-back — and at 9/2, the value is clear.
Verdict: Excellent value – the only realistic threat to Haaland.
Alexander Isak (5/1)
Alexander Isak is dominating the headlines right now, with his name at the centre of what’s shaping up to be the transfer saga of the summer.
Reports suggest the Swedish striker has told Newcastle he wants to explore a move away, with Liverpool frontrunners to pull off a record £150m deal.
The fee may sound steep, but given what Isak produced last season, it’s more than justified. The Swede firmly established himself among England’s elite, scoring 23 goals and leading Newcastle’s charge back into the Champions League. He's arguably the best striker in the league bar Haaland.
If he does land at Anfield, he’d likely benefit from increased service – but would almost certainly lose penalty duties to Salah. And in the race for the Golden Boot, spot-kicks matter. It’s extremely rare for a non-penalty taker to finish top of the scoring charts.
If he stays put at Newcastle, the outlook doesn’t improve much. Outscoring both Haaland and Salah feels like a stretch, especially with question marks around his mindset and future role.
Isak's odds were 7/1 on Sunday but have now dropped to 5/1 as his move to Liverpool picks up steam. At this price, there’s just not enough value right now in our eyes.
Verdict: Avoid for now.
Victor Gyökeres (10/1)
The Premier League is about to welcome one of the most prolific strikers in world football – and now that Victor Gyökeres is officially priced, he enters the Golden Boot conversation as a serious contender.
The stats are jaw-dropping: 68 goals in 66 league games since joining Sporting, more than any player across Europe’s top 10 leagues during that span.
Arsenal have finished runners-up three seasons in a row, and at times, it’s felt obvious that what they’ve lacked is a clinical number 9 – someone who only needs one chance to score. Gyökeres is exactly that.
While penalty duties are currently Saka’s, there’s a real chance Gyökeres takes at least some of them – especially if he finds himself in the Golden Boot mix. His record from the spot is immaculate: 20 out of 20 penalties scored last season for club and country, and 22 straight converted overall.
Now priced at 10/1, the Swede is no longer an unknown outsider. He’s the fourth favourite in the market, behind only Haaland, Salah, and Isak – and if he settles quickly, he has the numbers, role, and pedigree to push them all the way.
Verdict: A compelling outsider with serious potential.