Finally, the Epsom Derby 2026 is here. The rain has arrived, but it won’t spoil the party for the estimated 60,000 racegoers, nor for me as I double-down on my initial Derby picks. I have a main bet and a live each-way horse in my full Derby betting preview.
The Derby Horse Racing Preview: My Best Bet & Each-Way Angle
Odds correct at 14:50 BST on 03/06/26. Odds subject to change.
My Derby betting tips are locked in. I really hope that this won’t be a soft ground Classic. The track was watered last weekend, despite the threat of rain, which of course arrived earlier in the week. That said, there’s plenty in the profiles of Item and Maltese Cross to say that they can handle this, so confidence isn’t wavering.
Key Derby odds have been provided by the race sponsor, Betfred, and by William Hill, two of the best horse racing bookmakers available.
No Expiry Date
The O’Brien Factor
We have a similar pattern for the Derby to the one we see in the Oaks. Aidan O’Brien dominates the market and has more than one runner to consider, but the real value could lie with owner-breeders Juddmonte.
Favourite for the Derby this year is Benvenuto Cellini, an outstanding winner of the Chester Vase. As good as that performance was visually, at 2/9 and with no real opposition, he was entitled to win by 4½ lengths. I’ve also noted that the ground was incredibly quick at Chester, even dangerously so, so times and ratings are a little flattering for some.
The Frankel colt did run to a good level on heavy ground last season in the Futurity Stakes for O’Brien, though he was a beaten favourite there. The dam, Newspaperofrecord, didn’t stay a distance either, so it’s possible that the firm ground and tight bends at Chester showed this horse to best effect.
Given his form on softer ground, Pierre Bonnard may be the most likely O’Brien winner, despite having been beaten favourite in both of his trials this spring. Action and Christmas Day also take their chance, but I’m siding with a Berkshire-trained runner over the lot of them.
2026 Derby Best Bet: The One Item I Want
Item, trained by Andrew Balding and ridden by Colin Keane for Juddmonte, is the one I’ve fancied since he crossed the line as the winner of the Dante Stakes at York, the strongest Derby trial. That decision for me was all instinct, having watched the way he got himself into the race before pulling away, but the comments and stats discovered since then have only strengthened my views.
Using his body economically, Item was never slower than standard early doors on the Knavesmire, but roused himself just enough to run each of the last four furlongs faster than any other horse. That’s a great sign heading to Epsom over this distance. He’s a relaxed character, his jockey has no doubts about the trip, and sire Frankel has had success here before at the top level.
As discussed with Paul Hanagan, Item looks the ideal type for the Derby. Having seen out the extended mile and a quarter at York on only his third racecourse start, he has shown himself to be classy and with sufficient stamina, with his balance around Tattenham Corner the only thing left to test. Best bets for the Derby aren’t always strong, but I do like this colt, and he is top of my list of expert Derby picks.
Explainer – Why Pedigrees Are So Important
I talk a lot on these pages about breeding, and it’s never as crucial as in the Derby. While this race makes stallions, its results are also still dependent on the ones who’ve gone before. You can’t win the Derby with a lower-grade, one-mile pedigree. We need to know that these horses are by the best sires, out of the best mares, and bred to do this exact job.
Why I’m Backing Item:
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Showed himself to be full of class when winning the Dante Stakes
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Looks certain to appreciate the distance
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Based on York and on some of the family, should handle cut in the ground
The Derby Each-Way Horse: Maltese Cross to Fly the Flag
The best each-way play has to be Maltese Cross, trained by William Haggas. As a son of Derby winner and star Derby sire Sea The Stars, we’ve got plenty of evidence to look back on in order to judge just how much this horse could improve, and how he could perform at Epsom.
After a reasonable debut, Maltese Cross got off the mark at Newmarket in September, beating Del Maro (rated 102) and Balzac who reopposes here. He began his three-year-old campaign with a close win at Newbury, beating some good horses in a tight finish, before seeing off Bay Of Brilliance and Balzac in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
Because of how close his races have been, his form is being overlooked. In fact, he is improving hugely from race to race and, being by Sea The Stars out of a Camelot mare, is just tailor made for this distance. He can trouble the Derby favourites.
Why Maltese Cross Is a Good Alternative Bet:
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Vastly improving form – Lingfield Derby Trial winner
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On breeding, he has the class and the stamina for this
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Overlooked in a market dominated by Aidan O’Brien
Other information for the Derby undercard and elsewhere will be available on my Saturday horse racing tips page this Friday.
