Iconic golf courses seem to be few and far between these days. The constant strive for distance means that many are becoming rip-and-chip blueprints, seemingly repeated on a Boys Club rota on the PGA Tour. So when, as golf fans, we get the opportunity to enjoy true icons, such as Shinnecock Hills this week at the 2026 US Open, it’s time to sit back, crack a beer and enjoy watching 160 pros look like mid-handicappers at their local mid-week medal.
Early reports from Long Island, New York, are that the wind is ripping. 30+ mph looks set in for the week, which makes what is already one of the 10 most difficult courses in the United States bear its teeth like a set of pearly whites from Turkey. I, for one, can’t wait, and I’ve got three US Open 2026 golf betting tips ready to step up to the challenge of Shinnecock.
TL;DR – My 3 US Open 2026 Golf Betting Tips
| Bet | Bookie | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Fitzpatrick to win | Betfred | 18/1 | 1 |
| Shane Lowry top 10 | Betfred | 11/2 | 2 |
| Rory McIlroy to win | Betfred | 11/1 | 2 |
*Odds correct at 10:00 BST on 16/06/2026. Odds subject to change.
No Expiry Date
Bet 1: Matt Fitzpatrick to Win
I remember watching Matt Fitzpatrick in the final round of the 2025 Masters and thinking to myself, where on earth has his game gone? A player who just three years prior won his first major – the US Open, no less – and was cementing his place amongst the world's elite had split with his caddie, dropped to 82nd in the world, failed to make the top 50 in any of the three previous majors and looked like he wasn’t sure which end of the club to hold.
But a little over a month later, a T8 finish at the 2025 PGA Championship looked to spark something in his game. He’s had two solid top 18 finishes in both majors for 2026, has won three times on the PGA Tour and has propelled himself to number four in the world ranking.
The Englishman has been brash in the lead-up to this week as well, talking about how he “wants the course to play even harder”. Let’s address those comments on Sunday evening after being pulled from pillar to post all week, shall we, Mathew?
With the wind set to play a huge role throughout the week on this iconic golf course, I’m looking for players who are going to thrive, and Fitzpatrick really ticks the boxes.
He was T12 the last time they played here back in 2018, has elite distance control and trajectory with irons, enjoys the wind and the shot-shaping needed to combat it, and has a world-class short game if he does venture off line, which will almost certainly happen at some point given the setup.
I’d love to get a little more than 18/1 here, but he’s well-backed because he fits the profile. On the nose with Fitzpatrick is my first US Open prediction of the week.
Bet 2: Shane Lowry to Finish Top 10
Form can be an overused commodity in golf. It’s easy to get attached to recent results and pick players who are striking it consistently well. But sometimes, there are outliers to the form book and sometimes they come in the form of a 39-year-old Guinness guzzling Irishman from County Offaly.
Let’s not beat around the bush here; it’s not been a great few months for Shane-o. Since his T2 at the Cognizant Classic at the start of March, he’s not finished inside the top 20 of any of his last 10 starts.
You’d be warranted to question my decision to back him this week to make the top 10. But hear me out.
Horses for courses. A classic cliché, but one that’s relevant in golf more than most. You see, before Lowry won the 2019 Open Championship, he’d made just three top 10s all season. And before he’d won at the Zurich Classic in 2024, he hadn’t made the top 30 in any of the three tournaments prior.
Lowry isn’t a Scottie Scheffler. Nor a Rory McIlroy. He’s streaky, and with streaky players, you need to take the rough with the smooth.
His game, on paper, looks perfectly set up for Shinnecock. He, like Fitzpatrick, will want that wind to blow and blow hard. He’s grown up on links across Ireland, and 30+ mph winds will be nothing more than a light zephyr flowing through his ever-thinning barnet.
Odds of 11/2 for a top-10 finish look great value for a bloke no one is talking about and who is likely to be underestimated here.
Bet 3: Rory McIlroy to Win
We live in a golfing world where picking between Rory and Scottie each week seems to be the norm. The pair are, for the most part, on their own pedestal in terms of talent, and this week I’m keeping the Euro theme running and backing McIlroy to bag his second major of the year.
What’s impressed me most about 2026 Rory is the improvement in his iron play, and in particular, his wedge play. It’s been an area of his game that’s plagued him over the last few years and has been a significant contributor to his major drought from 2014 to 2025.
His numbers show a similar story. Strokes gained Approach have jumped from +0.44 in 2025 to +0.81 in 2026. Interestingly, his numbers off the tee have also seen a slight bump as well, even though he’d likely suggest that he’s struggled with the driver at times.
One thing Rory is especially good at is controlling his ball flight. This will be key this week with the strong winds forecast.
Now that the monkey of not winning a major in over 10 years is well and truly off his back thanks to back-to-back US Masters wins, I can see a world where the Northern Irishman gets into double digits for majors.
It’s been reported that on Sunday, he shot 66 around Shinnecock in a practice round, which, if true, is incredible given the conditions. He’s 11/1 to win this week and out of the big three – Rahm included in that – he’s the best value of the bunch.
My 3 US Open Bets are Live with Betfred
