The 13 Best Over 2.5 Goals Strategy And Winning Tips (2020)

The under/over 2.5 goals bet is a nice and uncomplicated betting market in which you, the punter armed with strategy, are betting on there being more or less than 2.5 goals in a match. If you fancy there being more, then you are hoping for three or more goals to be scored in the game whereas if you have put money on their being less than you are backing two or less goals in the game.

With this page here, our aim is to arm you with all the tips you need to make a bet such as the under/over 2.5 goals market and have as good a chance as possible that it will ultimately pay off. In betting, there is no such thing as a sure thing and that’s actually a good thing. If that were the case, then there would be no fun or challenge in betting and it would quickly become dull. Likewise, sure things would also eliminate the value from the game too. However, we can bend luck in our favour and strengthen our chances of reaping some rewards in the long term. Here, we will explain how.

 

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Under/Over 2.5 Goals Strategy and Winning Betting Tips: Top 13

under over 2.5 goals tips

(Image: Eden Hazard in his Chelsea days | Licence: © Thomas Richards)

As we outlined above, our mission is to alert you to some under over 2.5 goal tips and strategies that you can use to your advantage when playing the betting market. Everything listed below is designed to help you improve your chances of winning with this market.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #1: Study The Form

Few things in sport provide a better idea of how things will work out than form. If a team is in woeful shape, then you can form an idea of whether they are likely to concede a lot of goals or draw a blank at the other end. Of course, there are no guarantees in sport and all form, whether good or bad, will come to an end at some point.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #2: Head To Head

For whatever reason, some fixtures tend to be high scoring matches most seasons so the head to head history between two teams will provide a good idea of what kind of game this will likely be. From going over old results of seasons gone by, you might have a decent indicator of whether this will be a high, low or medium scoring game.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #3: Wait For The Line-ups

The team line-ups are announced up to an hour before kick-off and waiting until then is the best idea for winning a bet like this. This way, you know who is playing in the match such as the team’s top goal scorer or number one goalkeeper. On the other hand, placing your bet early and before you know which players are taking part could prove to be problematic. If one of the teams involved has a big midweek European fixture then the manager might well consider dropping and resting their big names which could mean that the star striker gets benched for this fixture which could well impact on the amount of goals scored in it.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #4: Injuries And Other Selection Issues

Are one of the teams involved in your match suffering from selection issues such as suspensions or an injury-hit squad? Essentially, the point is that if a team cannot field their number one goalkeeper or centre back, then the likelihood of there being a higher scoring match will increase. So, pay attention to the latest team news.

 

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Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #5: Analyse The Leagues

The first thing you should do is research individual leagues to see how often games break through the two-goal barrier. The overall stats for football across the world show that the typical game averages between 2.4 and 2.6 goals and that is why bookmakers set the line for most games at Under/Over 2.5 Goals. In a study done by the Football Observatory in 2017, it was revealed that the Swiss Super League averaged more goals than any other (3.3 per game), while the Swedish Allsvenskan came second (3.01 per game). Meanwhile, the Russian Premier League found itself at the opposite end of the table, coming last (1.99 per game). The typical game averages between 2.4 and 2.6 goals. Finding out which leagues tend to have a high or low average number of goals is always a good place to start and gives you the platform to then go into deeper focus on individual teams in the respective leagues.

Betting over 2.5 goals at Betfair

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #6: Study Individual Team Goal Ratios

Certain leagues may record a high level of goals due to particular teams consistently being involved in goal-heavy games. For this reason, it is important to look at the stats for teams in detail as well as the leagues. Good news. We have a very handy feature that allows you to do exactly that. Our Over 2.5 Goals stats page provides a record of how often teams from 29 leagues (including the major English and European leagues) see their games go over 2.5 goals.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #7: Search For Fixtures Which Include Two High Scoring Teams

Once you have analysed a team's over 2.5 goals record, you can then look at upcoming fixtures to see where two respective high scoring teams will meet. For example, if 70% of Team A's games feature over 2.5 goals for the season and they're coming up against Team B whose games have featured over 2.5 goals 60% of the time, then these statistics suggest there is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals occurring.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #8: Investigate Why Teams Have Strong Over 2.5 Goals Figures

Once you are familiar with which teams are regularly involved in under/over 2.5 goal-games, it is useful to see exactly why. Is it down to a team playing front-foot, attacking football with little defensive responsibility? Is it down to a team being extremely clinical in front of goal? These are the questions you need to be asking yourself. Furthermore, this is where the Expected Goals (xG)model can come into use. For example, a team may be recording a high level of over 2.5 goal games, however, their xG may be much lower, which would mean the team has been very efficient in putting their chances away. In the long term, this is likely (though not certain) to revert to the mean as it's unlikely that they will continue to be clinical to such a level. On the other hand, a team may be seeing relatively few games with over 2.5 goals, but their xG figure is above 2.5. This would imply they are creating great chances but are not putting them away. Again, this is likely to level out in the long term and lead to a larger volume of over 2.5 goal games.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #9: Managers & Their Footballing Philosophy

It's well known that certain managers are associated with goal-heavy games. Jurgen Klopp and his ‘heavy metal football' is one example and this playing style is conducive to over 2.5 winners. Pep Guardiola is another manager that sticks to his ball dominating, attacking football, which again, usually results in goals. Flip this on its head and you can look at ‘safety first' managers who deliberately set up to be defensively sound and make their side difficult to beat. Studying how loyal managers are to their philosophies is a wise move when looking at the under/over 2.5 goals markets.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #10: Look At The Game Scenario For Over 2.5 Goals Tips

So much can hinge on a game scenario. For example, if there is a game played over two legs and the first leg ends 3-0, then the team that lost simply have to come out in the second leg to try and score three goals. This can dramatically change a team's playing style and make one team come out and attack which may leave gaps for the opposition to exploit. However, bear in mind that, understandably in these scenarios, goals tend to be well backed by punters which may lead to a drop in odds and in extreme situations, the goal line even moving to as far as 3.5. It is then up to you to decide whether this is just or is simply an overreaction.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #11: Find The Best Possible Odds Available

This is something you should be doing regardless of what market you are betting on. Scouring the internet to see which bookmaker is offering the best odds for under/over 2.5 goals on your selected game is crucial. As a further tip, it is also worth checking the ‘Asian Goal Line' with bookmakers that have this market available which is sometimes a better price than the standard under/over 2.5 goals market despite being the exact same bet. Asian markets tend to be more competitive and therefore greater liquidity and subsequently better odds are available. It might not be by much, but it's these fine margins that make the difference over the long term.

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #12: Sometimes It Pays To Wait

If you want a better price for your under/over 2.5 goals selection, then it may well pay to wait until the game goes In-Play. You can then take a better price should the game still be 0-0 after 10 minutes, for example.

Alternatively, if there have been 2 goals scored in a game that is approaching 70 minutes, then in many situations you will be able to get a price around even money for another goal to be scored in the remainder of the match. This could be an angle to consider when looking at #6 and the need for a team to score in their respective game scenario.

 

Over 2.5 Goals Strategy #13: System Bets

It is worth your while to consider placing system bets of at least three selections on the over 2.5 market as these give you the leeway to lose a selection or two while keeping the bet alive. This flexibility is something that a straight-up accumulator does not afford a bettor. System bets begin at three selections and include common system bet types include Trixies, patents, Yankees and Canadians. These are particularly rewarding if the odds on your selections are all even money or higher.

An over under 2.5 goals Trixie at William Hill

 

How Does Goal Betting Work?

The whole purpose of this wager is to test your prediction skills as to whether or not a certain number of goals scored in a game will be higher or lower than a specified total. It doesn’t have to be under/over 2.5 goals either, you will normally be able to choose which specified total you want to bet on before deciding whether to back under or over the amount you have selected. For your bet to win, you need the total amount of goals scored in the match to equate to your prediction. For example, if you back under 2.5 goals and the game ends 1-1, you win. Or, you back higher than 2.5 goals and the match ends 2-0, you lose.

Tips on Why to Bet on Under/Over 2.5 Goals?

At this point, you may well be asking, why bet on the under/over market? Well, it turns out that there are plenty of reasons to bet on the over 2.5 goals market. A lot of the time, no matter how much we love it, football is not a high scoring game so you are always in with a shout of generally getting good odds on over 2.5 goals although this will obviously fluctuate depending on which teams are involved. It is also well worth taking into consideration that, because this is one of the most popular markets for bettors, there is, more often than not, excellent liquidity to take advantage of which means that there is regularly better value to be had. Of course, it helps that with this type of bet you do not need to pick a winning team, or nominate the final score, just simply predict if there will be at least three goals or not.

 

Other Popular Bet Types of Goal Betting

Robert Lewandowski

(Image: Robert Lewandowski scores again for Bayern | Licence: © Berita Bola)

It is worth remembering that you as the bettor are not limited to under/over 2.5 goals, there are always other types of goal betting for you to consider. Some of these, we have mentioned below.

Over/Under 0.5 Goals

A bet on under/over 0.5 goals is exactly the same as 2.5 market but better suited to what is likely to be a low scoring game. To win this bet, you will need to successfully decide whether a game will have more or less than one goal in it. If you went higher, then any score line over 0-0 would win. Likewise, if you go lower, then a 0-0 draw is enough to win your money back.

Over/Under 1.5 Goals

Again, this is much the same thing but here you can bet whether the total number of goals in a football match will be above or below 1.5 goals. Over in this bet equates to two goals or more while less than 1.5 goals would mean one or no goals to be scored in 90 minutes.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Over/under 3.5 Goals is a 90 minute bet in which you are betting on either three goals or less to be scored in a match. A winning bet on under 3.5 goals would be on score lines such as 4-0, while a winning under 3.5 goals bet could be 2-1.

PSG Mbappe

(Image: PSG Mbappe from PSG celebrates | Licence: © GiacomoCruzP)

 

FAQ

Do All The Goals Need to be Scored by The Same Team?

No, the beauty of this bet is that you are betting on an under/over amount of goals being scored, not who scores them.

Do Own Goals Count for Over 2.5 goals?

Yes, any goals that apply to the end result count towards this bet.

What About Goals Scored in Extra Time?

I’m afraid not, unless specifically stated, this is a 90 minute bet only.

 

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ThePuntersPage Final Say

Betting on the under/over 2.5 goals markets can be rewarding and with the right tips, it isn’t a particularly tricky bet to pull off. With a market such as this, you don't have to worry about the result, rather the number of goals instead. When you do decide to give this type of bet a go, then remember you should be looking for teams that are potent in attack and/or poor in defence. As ever, do your homework and utilise all of the information and stats available at your fingertips and remember, knowledge is power and the more of it you arm yourself with, the bigger the advantage you have.