Under/Over 2.5 Goals Strategy - 8 Tips To Help You Win (2018 Update)
In this article we specifically look at Under/Over 2.5 Goals strategy and list 8 factors you should consider when placing your U/O 2.5 Goals bets that will help you become more successful.
Under/Over 2.5 Goals Strategy
Under/Over 2.5 Goals is a hugely popular market among the punting community.
Rather than having to decide which team will win, sometimes it’s much easier and more sensible to predict whether a game will have under or over 2.5 goals.
However, as with any and every market, there are certain factors you need to bear in mind.
So, what should you be thinking about when placing your Under/Over 2.5 Goals bets?
1) Analyse The Leagues
The first thing you should do is research individual leagues to see how often games break through the two-goal barrier.
The overall stats for football across the world show that the typical game averages between 2.4 and 2.6 goals and that is why bookmakers set the line for most games at Under/Over 2.5 Goals.
In a study done by the Football Observatory in 2017, it was revealed that the Swiss Super League averaged more goals than any other (3.3 per game), while the Swedish Allsvenskan came second (3.01 per game). Meanwhile, the Russian Premier League found itself at the opposite end of the table, coming last (1.99 per game).
The typical game averages between 2.4 and 2.6 goals
Finding out which leagues tend to have a high or low average number of goals is always a good place to start and gives you the platform to then go into deeper focus on individual teams in the respective leagues.
2) Study Individual Team Goal Ratios
Certain leagues may record a high level of goals due to particular teams consistently being involved in goal-heavy games. For this reason, it is important to look at the stats for teams in detail as well as the leagues.
Good news. We have a very handy feature that allows you to do exactly that. Our Over 2.5 Goals stats page provides a record of how often teams from 29 leagues (including the major English and European leagues) see their games go over 2.5 goals.
3) Search For Fixtures Which Include Two High Scoring Teams
Once you have analysed a team’s over 2.5 goals record, you can then look at upcoming fixtures to see where two respective high scoring teams will meet.
For example, if 70% of Team A’s games feature over 2.5 goals for the season and they’re coming up against Team B whose games have featured over 2.5 goals 60% of the time, then these statistics suggest there is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals occurring.
4) Investigate Why Teams Have Strong Under/Over 2.5 Figures
Once you are familiar with which teams are regularly involved in under/over 2.5 goal-games, it is useful to see exactly why.
Is it down to a team playing front-foot, attacking football with little defensive responsibility? Is it down to a team being extremely clinical in front of goal? These are the questions you need to be asking yourself.
Furthermore, this is where the Expected Goals (xG) model can come into use. For example, a team may be recording a high level of over 2.5 goal games, however, their xG may be much lower, which would mean the team has been very efficient in putting their chances away. In the long term, this is likely (though not certain) to revert to the mean as it’s unlikely that they will continue to be clinical to such a level.
On the other hand, a team may be seeing relatively few games with over 2.5 goals, but their xG figure is above 2.5. This would imply they are creating great chances but are not putting them away. Again, this is likely to level out in the long term and lead to a larger volume of over 2.5 goal games.
5) Managers & Their Footballing Philosophy
It’s well known that certain managers are associated with goal-heavy games.
Jurgen Klopp and his ‘heavy metal football’ is one example and this playing style is conducive to over 2.5 winners.
Pep Guardiola is another manager that sticks to his ball dominating, attacking football, which again, usually results in goals.
Flip this on its head and you can look at ‘safety first’ managers who deliberately set up to be defensively sound and make their side difficult to beat.
Studying how loyal managers are to their philosophies is a wise move when looking at the under/over 2.5 goals markets.
6) Look At The Game Scenario
So much can hinge on a game scenario.
For example, if there is a game played over two legs and the first leg ends 3-0, then the team that lost simply have to come out in the second leg to try and score three goals. This can dramatically change a team’s playing style and make one team come out and attack which may leave gaps for the opposition to exploit.
However, bear in mind that, understandably in these scenarios, goals tend to be well backed by punters which may lead to a drop in odds and in extreme situations, the goal line even moving to as far as 3.5. It is then up-to you to decide whether this is just, or is simply an overreaction.
7) Find The Best Possible Odds Available
This is something you should be doing regardless of what market you are betting on.
Scouring the internet to see which bookmaker is offering the best odds for under/over 2.5 goals on your selected game is crucial.
As a further tip, it is also worth checking the ‘Asian Goal Line’ with bookmakers that have this market available which is sometimes a better price than the standard under/over 2.5 goals market despite being the exact same bet.
Asian markets tend to be more competitive and therefore greater liquidity and subsequently better odds are available. It might not be by much, but it’s these fine margins that make the difference over the long term.
8) Sometimes It Pays To Wait
If you want a better price for your under/over 2.5 goals selection, then it may well pay to wait until the game goes In-Play. You can then take a better price should the game still be 0-0 after 10 minutes, for example.
Alternatively, if there has been 2 goals scored in a game that is approaching 70 minutes, then in many situations you will be able to get a price around even money for another goal to be scored in the remainder of the match. This could be an angle to consider when looking at #6 and the need for a team to score in their respective game scenario.
The benefit of betting in the under/over 2.5 market is you don’t have to worry about the result, instead, just the number of goals.
When betting on under/over 2.5 goals, you want to be focusing on teams that are good going forward, consistently recording a high volume of shots (particularly in the box) as well as teams that concede a high volume of good chances to their opposition.
Use the information and stats available to your advantage. The more knowledge you have, the bigger the edge you have.