Darts specialist Dave South (@LockupTipster) previews night four of the 2019 Betfred World Matchplay and provides us with his best bets at the Winter Gardens in Blackpool.
2019 World Matchplay Day Four Betting Preview & Tips
Round one saw some explosive score lines and performances, which has set up a mouthwatering evening of darts featuring three past and present World Champions on our coupon tonight. Between the eight players competing tonight put away a combined 33 maximums en-route to the last 16.
Backing all four favourites to progress (Smith/Wade/Anderson and MVG) will reward you with 11/4 with Betfair if they all reign supremacy on Tuesday evening. Backing all the outsiders (Hopp/Suljovic/King and Durrant) will pay almost 78/1 or a 1.27% implied chance of landing.
Smith v Hopp – 19:15
Head To Head – Players tied 2-2
The pair have played four times, with the most recent back in May, where Bullyboy edged out the German ace 6-5 in a pro-tour event. Michael Smith comes into the game at a smidgen under 4/9 with Betfair, with Maximiser best priced at 11/5 with Bet365.
Smith took a while to get going in his encounter with Jamie Hughes being 5-2 down at one stage to get motoring and win the game 10-7 despite some power scoring in the early stages landing four maximums and a 130-high finish in the process to win the match. Max Hopp beat the well fancied Dave Chisnall, which went to the tiebreak resulting in the German landing at the finish line 11-9 with six maximums and a 128-high finish.
The youth of both players should see a fairly well paced game, which will suit both players. Opening the evening, the stage will only get hotter as the night progresses. Looking at the maximum line I was looking for around even money with fewer than 12 maximums, but the line is set at 10.5, and below what I was expecting. Both players netted a maximum in their opening legs with a tempting 5/4 on the opening leg bagging the first 180.
Smith can use the motivation from the victory to boost the 5/12 price winning the game to win 11-8 or better at 10/11 with Paddy Power and Betfair, which will see some interest.
Wade v Suljovic – 20:15
Head To Head – Suljovic leads 11-6
In 2019 the pair have faced off four times, with the Austrian reigning supreme on three occasions. Wade won the last battle at a European Tour event in May. Layers have this game chalked up slightly edged with the Aldershot ace at 17/20 with Betfair, with the Gentle 11/10 with Bet365.
Wade battled against five match darts to defeat Jeffrey De Zwaan on Sunday having bee 9-6 down on a race to ten making it go to the tiebreak, with the left hander seizing the opportunity and bagging a last 16 against old foe Mensur Suljovic.
Mensur easily put away Jermaine Wattimena in his first round, with the Dutch opponent making remarks about Suljovic, which were later retracted. Wade bagged a big 160 finish taking seven maximums on his journey, with Mensur’s route being simpler taking three maximums and an 80 highest finish in the game.
Bookies are split on whom will take the most maximums, and this is because both players per leg average expectation is not very high with 11/2 on the 180 tie tempting. Wade is big at 31/20 with Boylesports with Mensur around the 6/5 mark. Sky punts 5/4 on five or more 180s in the contest and even money with the same firm to land the first.
Anderson v King – 21:15
Head To Head – Anderson leads 21-7
Two old guards of the game toe the oche in a battle where both players MO is to get on with it, which will suit the pace for both. The pair have not met in three years, with the defending champion heading into the tie at 4/11 at Boylesports and King at 13/5 with Skybet.
Mervyn was spectacular in his opening tie performance taking out an impressive 10-5 victory over well-fancied Nathan Aspinall in the very first game of the tourney. King was clinical at the half time commercial to re-enter the fray at 5 apiece to take all of the next five legs in an excellent 100.55 average, with seven maximums and a 160-high finish.
Gary Anderson enjoyed a modest display in beating Danny Noppert 10-6 in a game, where Anderson didn’t really need to get past third gear to bag the victory. In a low 90’s average, took out a 160 with four maximums in the process. It was excellent to see Anderson back on the big stage since taking some time off for back issues, which led the Flying Scotsman from the Premier League earlier in the year.
Punters wanting a boost on Anderson from 4/11 will get 3/4 in places to win by a three leg or better margin. Having examined the market lines, the maximums do not deem much interest from this quarter.
Van Gerwen v Durrant -22:15
Head To Head – No previous meetings
If I am mistaken, Sky will miss a trick if they do not hype this as the battle of the World Champions with PDC World Champion Michael van Gerwen versus the BDO World Champion Glen Durrant.
Durrant has progressed excellently since defecting to the PDC to give the Professional Darts Corporation avenue of his career a go. Glen has certainly been a force to be reckoned with bagging two pro tour titles in a short few months and at 12/5 with Bet365 could well upset the green machine, who chalks up at 4/11 with Hills.
Seeing as the Anderson match is priced similarly to the Gerwen game on the favourite, there is a shorter price on Durrant the outsider in this.
Gerwen got over the finish line against Steve Beaton struggling at times to win 10-6 and said himself in the post-match interview, motivation seems to be an issue for Mighty Mike at times. MVG did mention there has been issues and its possible with his family, is certainly missing life resulting in an array of missed doubling along the way.
I do feel MVG is often a reactive player, seeing many times before, when the gear changing is required can get into the zone quickly, but can often motor off into a game and stall a bit in the middle. Although MVG does switch on the cover shots, playing against a Durrant, not the biggest maximum hitter on the tour surprised me to see Mighty Mike at 11/10 for the most maximums with Boylesports, which I expect to go off odds on before the game.