During the summer transfer window, many football players switch clubs, providing the perfect opportunity for player transfer betting. But how do you go about it, and which are the best football betting sites? Well, we have everything you need to know about how, where, and on whom to bet.
- 1 How Does Player Transfer Betting Work?
- 2 Why Should I Bet on Player Transfers?
- 3 When Are the Transfer Windows?
- 4 Football Player Transfer Markets and Odds
- 5 Top 5 Summer 2022 Transfers Completed
- 6 Top 5 Winter 2023 Transfers Completed
- 7 Top 10 Most Expensive Football Player Transfers of All Time
- 8 ThePuntersPage Final Say
- 9 Football Player Transfer FAQs
How Does Player Transfer Betting Work?
Transfer windows give clubs the chance to improve their squads, be it by adding some new players or offloading deadwood from the wage bill. The best time to make these deals is the during the summer.
As for the players themselves, there are many reasons why they would want to look for a new club. Some of these factors include wanting to play at a higher level, searching for trophies, or disagreements with teammates and coaching staff.
While the above may explain the when and the why, it doesn't explain the how. To get the most out of player transfer betting, read on below!
Step 1: Pick a Transfer Rumour
Naturally, the first step is to choose who you want to bet on. If you're a football fanatic like me, your social feeds will be full of rumours and supposed bids regarding the biggest ongoing player transfers.
Research is key to giving you the best chance of getting predictions right. Why does a player want to leave? Has the player made demands before? Has he ever mentioned a desire to play somewhere else? Getting the answers to these questions can help you place more accurate wagers. Just keep in mind our two top tips:
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Stick to a market you know (ex. Premier League)
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Look for legitimate sources (Ex. Fabrizio Romano and David Ornstein)
Step 2: Choose the Right Bookie
We've gone ahead and done the work for you here with our list of top recommended bookies above. All have been specially selected with player transfer betting in mind, offering great value for punters.
Transfer odds are super sensitive to fluctuation, so we shortlisted betting sites known to provide competitive odds and who are quick to update any changes in price.
Here are a few tips to make sure you choose the right bookmaker suited to your needs and preferences:
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Pick one of our excellent bookmakers listed above.
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Make sure you're happy with the markets offered on player transfers.
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Compare the odds with those offered by other bookies.
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During the above step, look out for any specific summer transfer specials and promotions.
Step 3: To Wait or Not to Wait
This is the trickiest step of the lot, but waiting for the right moment to place a bet could give you better odds or save you from making a bad bet. The question is, how can you accurately spot the right instance to place a wager?
Well, in short, you can’t. It’s impossible to be sure of a transfer. Even if you place your bets early, deals could always fall through. On the flip side, waiting for a deal to be all but confirmed could prolong things until it's too late. Here are a two main tips to consider that may help you reach a decision more easily.
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If the player wants to play at a particular club, he may push a move harder.
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If a player is reluctant to leave, he may find it harder to choose another club if he has to, making things harder to predict.
Why Should I Bet on Player Transfers?
Ok, so you know the how – let's go back to the why again! There are a few key reasons why you should bet on the summer transfer window and transfers in general, which we've highlighted below.
Lack of football in summer: Unless there’s a World Cup or European Championship, the summer months provide little footballing excitement. Transfers offer just that! And with more lucrative deals being struck every year, the window keeps getting more exciting.
Rumours are fun: Everybody loves a bit of gossip, and transfer rumours give you something to discuss and debate in the off-season.
It can help with bets during the season: Starting your research from the summer window could provide some valuable information, which you could use to find value in your bets once the season kicks off.
When Are the Transfer Windows?
You can still keep up to date with transfer rumours before the window opens, but the real fun kicks off when clubs can actually sell and buy players. Our table below shows the dates for the Summer transfer window schedules, which vary depending on the country.
| Country | Summer Transfer Window Dates |
|---|---|
| Albania | 14 June – 31 August |
| Australia | 21 June – 12 September |
| Brazil | 3 July – 2 August |
| Bulgaria | 16 June – 7 September |
| Canada | 5 July – 2 August |
| Denmark | 15 June – 1 September |
| England | 14 June – 1 September |
| Finland | 13 July – 12 August |
| France | 1 July – 1 September |
| Germany | 1 July – 1 September |
| Italy | 1 July – 31 August |
| Japan | 17 July – 16 August |
| Kenya | 26 June – 21 August |
| Netherlands | 12 June – 31 August |
| Norway | 1 August – 31 August |
| Romania | 13 June – 4 September |
| Russia | 26 June – 14 September |
| Scotland | 14 June – 31 August |
| Spain | 1 July – 1 September |
| Sweden | 7 July – 31 August |
| Turkey | 26 June – 15 September |
| USA | 5 July – 2 August |
Football Player Transfer Markets and Odds
From the Premier League to La Liga to Serie A and the Bundesliga, bookmakers are always quick to react to the latest transfer rumours. Once you sort the silliness from the factual, you’ll have a whole new world of betting opportunities to pounce on. Perhaps this is why betting on player transfers in football has become increasingly popular over recent years.
Player transfer betting allows you to wager on a certain player, or manager for that matter, to move to a certain club, or simply leave their current one. Other markets in this enjoyable field include to stay at the current club, which club a player will be at after the summer window closes, as well as which player will be at once the January window slams shut too.
Next Permanent Club
This is essentially betting on a player who, unless you know something no one else does, will already be in the news regarding a transfer to his next permanent club. This market lets you bet on the next team he will play for, but does not require you to nominate a particular transfer window when his move will occur.
Be sure to follow real journalists with strong club connections in order to get reliable updates. With the likes of Fabrizio Romano and Gianluca Di Marzio, keeping up with transfer rumours has become a lot easier. Taking advantage of the extremely accurate reporting of these journalists is a sure fire way to get more value out of your bets.
Remember, you can always bet on players NOT to move too, instead opting to stay put at their current club.
Next Club Signing
Another way to look at transfer betting is to look at it from the signing team’s point of view. This is to say, bet on the next player to join a club, any club. So, if you have a hunch that player X will be the next big money signing through the doors at, say, Manchester United, then this is the bet for you.
This can be a lot trickier, especially when betting on a big club. Top clubs will be dealing with several players at the same time, with deals being pushed forward or falling through at any moment. Research is key when using this type of bet, as keeping an eye out on the progress of a deal could be the difference between a win and a loss. Smaller clubs that don’t have many targets may be easier, but they will offer you lower odds.
To Break Transfer Record
A bet on this market would require you to successfully predict which club, either across the world or domestically, will smash through the existing transfer record within a designated time period.
For example, if you have read reports that Real Madrid has been persistent in their desired recruitment of a certain player, and that such a transfer would blow all others that have gone before it out of the water, then this is the market for that bet.
With the monumental price tag placed on Neymar Jr in 2017, this one seem a little more out of reach. However, with ever more lucrative buy out clauses and an abundance of wunderkinds, this could still happen.
Football Player Transfer Odds
It's safe to say that many football fans are still recovering from the exciting aftermath of the remarkable 2022/23 football season. This period saw unforgettable moments like Argentina's World Cup victory, Napoli clinching their third league title, City's triumphant treble-winning performance, as well as the heartbreak of Marco Reus and Dortmund.
All of this has left us eagerly anticipating a summer full of blockbuster transfers. As we look forward to the upcoming 2023/2024 campaign, here are some of the major transfer rumors currently making headlines, and the odds assigned to each player:
Harry Kane
The only thing keeping Tottenham relevant, Harry Kane is England’s all-time top scorer and the Premier League’s top scorer for a single club. Every year Kane is linked with a big club, and so far, his loyalty has reigned supreme, but with his time at the top level ticking, he may want to venture out.
Bayern Munich is currently the favourite to acquire Kane, with a £70 million bid apparently already on the table. It remains to be seen if he aims to win trophies or overtakes Shearer to become the Premier League top scorer.
Declan Rice
Possibly the most interesting transfer saga so far this summer, Rice has finally confirmed his departure from West Ham. With a remarkable record of over 200 appearances across all competitions and having led his team to their first European title in more than two decades, he has undeniably earned the status of a club legend.
Although Arsenal and Manchester City are both reportedly interested in signing the homegrown talent, Rice has already rejected two offers by the Gunners, with City reportedly preparing a £100 million bid. The bookies still have Arsenal as the favourites at 8/15, though, while City are priced at 7/4.
Kylian Mbappé
To the surprise of absolutely no one, Kylian Mbappé is back in the headlines as the Parisian is still looking for a move out of, well, Paris. Although PSG awarded him one of the most lucrative deals ever last season, the lack of ambition at the club has proved to be too much for Kylian to handle.
That being said, such is the quality of his current contract that odds on Mbappe staying at PSG are currently at 1/1. If he had to leave, Real Madrid is by far the most likely destination at odds of 16/1. Odds on a transfer to Manchester United are next at 16/1, but we think is extremely unlikely.
Josko Gvardiol
The Croatian has been a real standout this season, especially at the World Cup where he led the defensive line, taking Croatia all the way to the semi-finals and eventually finishing third. Having played for RB Leipzig since 2021, a move to a top European club looks likely.
So far, the biggest contender for Gvardiol’s signature is Manchester City, although there is some chance that he’ll stay in Leipzig; meanwhile, Real Madrid has also reportedly shown interest.
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
The Georgian who’s putting his country on the map, Kvaratshelia, more affectionately known as Kvaradona, led Napoli to their third Serie A title, winning the club’s and league’s player of the season. The man is in high demand, although he seems content at Napoli for now.
Having said that, all of Europe’s elite are fighting to sign Kvara, as the 22-year-old has shown heaps of potential this season. My guess is that he’ll stay on as the star man in a brilliant Napoli side.
Romelu Lukaku
What a rollercoaster of a career it’s been for Lukaku. After a Todd Boehly disaster class saw him come back to Chelsea for £115 million, Lukaku made it clear he preferred Inter, being loaned out last season. A decent campaign with the Nerazzurri ended with him missing a sitter in the Champions League final – not ideal.
It’s being reported that Lukaku is looking for a reunion with Inter, although some Saudi Pro League clubs are also reportedly interested. Whatever happens, Chelsea will surely suffer a loss.
Top 5 Summer 2022 Transfers Completed
The summer of 2022 saw plenty of brilliant signings and a handful of dodgy dealings as well. The likes of Erling Haaland, Richarlison and Sterling all made big money moves, and some have proven to be better than others. Here are the top transfers:
| Pos | Player | From | To | Fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antony | Ajax | Manchester United | £82 million |
| 2 | Wesley Fofana | Leicester | Chelsea | £70 million |
| 3 | Aurélien Tchouameni | Monaco | Real Madrid | £69.4 million |
| 4 | Darwin Núñez | Benfica | Liverpool | £64 million |
| 5 | Casemiro | Real Madrid | Manchester United | £61 million |
Antony was last summer’s biggest Premier League Transfer signing. He’s flattered to deceive this season, but the 22-year-old still has bags of potential. While it hasn’t worked out amazingly so far, he looks to be one for the future.
Chelsea’s transfer downfall can be highlighted by this transfer. Fofana is a great player, but the fee involved was rather high for his standard, and his lack of game time has emphasised this. The young talent should improve at Chelsea, but it remains to be seen.
Aurélien Tchouameni is an excellent young French footballer, playing the majority of Real Madrid’s La Liga matches. The biggest La Liga Transfer this season, Tchouameni will surely improve his game, becoming a top Madridista. Coincidentally, he’s also been the biggest outgoing Ligue 1 Transfer.
Darwin Núñez had a rocky start to his Premier League life, but over time, the Uruguayan has started showing his talent a lot more. One of his biggest issues is that he can’t speak a word of English.
Casemiro is an absolutely inspired signing by Manchester United. By far the oldest player on this list, he has brought some much-needed stability to the club. He’s also had more goal contributions than Antony!
Top 5 Winter 2023 Transfers Completed
| Pos | Player | From | To | Fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enzo Fernández | Benfica | Chelsea | £106.8 million |
| 2 | Mykhaylo Mudryk | Shakhtar Donetsk | Chelsea | £62 million |
| 3 | Anthony Gordon | Everton | Newcastle | £45 million |
| 4 | Cody Gakpo | PSV Eindhoven | Liverpool | £37 million |
| 5 | Benoît Badiashile | Monaco | Chelsea | £35 million |
The biggest signing this calendar year, Enzo Fernández joined Chelsea for an astronomical fee, and he’s still finding his feet in the league. The World Cup winner has tonnes of potential and will likely be a star man for the Blues, eventually.
The same thing can be said about Mykhaylo Mudryk, although he did come from a worse league. Brilliant on his day, Mudryk is another example of Chelsea’s overspending, but I believe that he could come good.
Anthony Gordon has been woeful at Newcastle this season. The Magpies have gotten very little wrong this season, but Gordon has really struggled, only scoring one goal this season.
Cody Gakpo could turn out to be a great signing for Liverpool. He’s completely forgotten his shaky start to the campaign and is a driving force in the Reds’ attack. He even scored in his first Merseyside Derby and scored a brace against rivals Manchester United.
Chelsea’s third inclusion, Benoît Badiashile, is a decent young defender who could be good value for money if he reaches his full potential. Chelsea has had one of their worst seasons in decades, and defensive stability is key to turning their fortunes around.
Transfer Betting in European Leagues
While most transfers are associated with the Premier League, don't overlook other top divisions which see plenty of fantastic signings too, providing plenty of potential value for punters.
For more on this, check out our specific transfer pages for each European league.
Top 10 Most Expensive Football Player Transfers of All Time
| Player | Move | Fee | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Neymar Jr | Barcelona To Paris Saint Germain | £198 million | 2017 |
| Kylian Mbappé | Monaco To Paris Saint Germain | £163 million | 2018 |
| João Félix | Benfica To Atlético de Madrid | £112.9 million | 2019 |
| Antoine Griezmann | Atlético de Madrid To Barcelona | £107 million | 2019 |
| Enzo Fernández | Benfica to Chelsea | £106.8 million | 2023 |
| Philippe Coutinho | Liverpool To Barcelona | £105 million | 2018 |
| Jack Grealish | Aston Villa to Manchester City | £100 million | 2021 |
| Romelu Lukaku | Inter Milan to Chelsea | £97.5 million | 2021 |
| Ousmane Dembéle | BVB To Barcelona | £97 million | 2017 |
| Paul Pogba | Juventus To Man Utd | £89 million | 2016 |
ThePuntersPage Final Say
The transfer window opens twice a year – in summer and winter – providing an excellent opportunity for teams to bolster their squads. It’s also great for punters, with player transfer betting especially brilliant during the summer window when not much football goes on. To get started, simply pick one of the bookmakers we've recommended above!
Football Player Transfer FAQs
Betting on football transfers is fantastic – it gives you the chance to bet on the sport during the off-season, you can find some great value, and the research you’ve done will definitely help you in future bets.
That depends on the bet you’ve placed. If you simply bet on the player to move, then don’t worry, your bet is fine. If, however, you bet on a player to go to a specific club, you’ll lose your stake.
Yes – with most top betting sites UK, you always have the option of betting on a player not to move.
There sure is, and you can read more about it in our manager betting guide.
In some cases, yes. Obviously, these will not break any transfer records, but they still see a player move to his next permanent club. It’s a good idea to bookmark a few football websites that specialise in analysis and stats so you can keep up-to-date with the latest transfer news.
Yes – the 2023 summer transfer window has seen most players being linked with ‘Any Saudi Pro League Club’ and this is quite common for many leagues.