Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marchCF96) previews the 2018 US Open men's final between Juan Martin Del Potro and Novak Djokovic and provides us with his best bets.
2018 US Open Final: Juan Martin Del Potro v
Novak Djokovic Betting Preview & Tips
This Sunday’s Men US Open final sees Wimbledon champion, Novak Djokovic, face off against the popular Argentinian, Juan Martin Del Potro.
Del Potro was the benefactor of a Rafael Nadal retirement in their semi-final, whilst Djokovic comfortably came through his semi against Kei Nishikori in straight sets.
The Argentinian is in his best form and is the highest in the world rankings he has even been at number three. He has previous in this competition, winning it back in 2009 when he beat Roger Federer, against the odds. He is best price at 2/1 but that is shortening, with plenty of people preferring to back the underdog here, rather than the 10/21 on Djokovic.
Djokovic has reached the final at the US Open eight times, but his winning record is not great, six times losing at the final hurdle. Djokovic’s success rate in Grand Slam finals stands at 22 played, 13 wins and 9 losses, which works out at just over 50%. That doesn’t fill you with confidence, despite his obvious quality and against a more than able opponent, this could be an interesting final.
Del Potro’s head-to-head record with Djokovic is not great, however, with the Serbian winning 14 of their 18 matches, including all of the last three, which came last year. Only four of their match-ups have occurred at Grand Slams and Djokovic has won all four of those, which will no doubt be something Del Potro has thought about.
Having said all that, both players have had relatively comfortable matches at this tournament and both should be at their best tonight. Del Potro has dropped just one set on his route to the final and this only his second ever grand slam final, with the other one being the US Open final in 2009, which he won.
Djokovic has also looked back to his very best this past fortnight, also dropping just the one set and has made short work of his fairly kind draw. His game against Nishikori was his first real test and you would expect this final to be his toughest competition yet.
Whilst Del Potro is the value in this final, it is difficult to go against Novak in a final, considering Del Potro is an unknown quantity in finals. However, he is not the sort to be overawed by the occasion and his experience in the game will be key if he is to succeed. Del Potro in this form means I think this game will go to at least four sets so the over 39.5 games at 5/6 looks to be good enough for me in that market.
Del Potro is a real warrior and will not be easy to beat and Djokovic will have to be on his best form to ensure he wins his 14th Grand Slam title. Djokovic to win 3-1 here is my prediction but I do think there will be some close sets in there that could go either way. Del Potro is the value bet for the match so I’m going safe with the total games bet at 5/6. The 3-1 score line is available at 3/1 if you fancy a bigger priced bet.