AC Milan v Lecce Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 20/10/19
Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Genoa vs Milan and provides us with his best bets for Saturday night’s Serie A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: -7.1pts
AC Milan v Lecce Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 20/10/19
- Time: 19:45
- Venue: Giuseppe Meazza
- Channel: N/A
Stefano Pioli’s reign as Milan head coach begins this weekend, as Lecce travel to the Giuseppe Meazza looking to further Il Rossoneri’s early-season woes.
Pioli takes charge in his first game following the international break, having seen his new side end a run of three straight league defeats with victory in Genoa in the last round. There is much work to do with this Milan side and it remains to be seen as to whether Pioli makes drastic changes or stick with the same team.
In attack is where the work needs to be done. Milan are struggling for goals with just six in their seven games in the league so far Pioli will be hoping he can lift the form of certain key individuals, such as Piatek, Suso and Leao, as they are the key players in this Milan side.
As for their opponents this weekend, Lecce have their own troubles to contend with. They have won just two of their opening seven fixtures, conceding 15 goals in the process. Considering they are a newly-promoted side, most would have thought that Lecce would spend the majority of the season in the bottom three and anything else would be a bonus.
However, they have impressed in games against Torino and SPAL and certainly possess a goal-scoring threat, especially in Marco Mancosu, who already has four goals this season for Lecce.
Milan’s win over Genoa will certainly have lifted this Milan side and the new manager should also be able to come in a rejuvenate certain individuals. They have had a two week break since that Genoa game and the fact they are at home to a team likely to be fighting relegation, this seems a good opportunity to continue the form.
Stefano Pioli could recall Brazillian Lucas Paqueta back to the starting eleven in his first game in charge. Davide Calabria and Samu Castillejo are both suspended for this match.
As for Lecce, the only player they are without for the trip to Milan is midfielder, Giannelli
Imbula, who remains out with a slight knock.
Potential Milan Starting XI: Donnarumma; Conti, Musacchio, Romagnoli, Hernandez; Kessie, Biglia, Paqueta; Suso; Piatek, Leao
Potential Lecce Starting XI: Gabriel; Rispoli, Lucioni, Rossettini, Calderoni; Petriccione, Tachtsidis, Majer; Mancosu; Falco, Babacar
Head To Head
Lecce only have two wins over Milan since 1993 and only one win ever in Milan, which was back in 1997. This will be the first match since 2012, when Milan were 2-0 winners.
Key Stats & Facts
- Milan have scored just six goals this season (0.8 GPG).
- Lecce have conceded 15 goals so far this season (concession of 2.14 GPG).
- Lecce are yet to keep a clean sheet this season in the league.
- Milan – 2/5
- Draw – 15/4
- Lecce – 7/1
Like I have mentioned, this game is the perfect one for the new manager and this Milan side. Lecce have conceded over two goals a game so far this season and are yet to keep a clean sheet. The away side do possess threats but I think I am going to get on side with the home team for this one.
The gulf in quality is vast and despite Milan being blunt so far in attack, I think their front-line should be able to get the ball in decent positions and it will be up to them to capitalise. Lucas paqueta looks like he will be added to the starting eleven and we have seen enough from him to suggest he can be that player that links the midfield to the attack. He will be key here for the Rossoneri.
Looking at the stats for this game, I think Milan will have plenty of chances. Lecce concede, on average, a league-high of 20 shots per game and also concede the most goals in the league from open-play. With Suso, Piatek, leao and Paqueta, Milan should be confident of scoring some goals here, although, that has been their weakness. They managed two goals in a game for the first time this season in the win over Genoa, which shows where their struggles have been.
Given Lecce’s defensive record and inability to keep the goals out, I do fancy Milan to get a few here. The bet I am going for is Milan to win and over 2.5 goals at 11/10. Now Milan, defensively, have not been great and Lecce have shown they can score goals. I do think Milan will score at least two but adding 0.5 onto that bet just because Milan could easily concede themselves. Milan will have too much for them however, and expect them to take all three points.