Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Fiorentina v Napoli and provides us with his best bets for Saturday night’s Serie A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: 0pts
Fiorentina v Napoli Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 24/08/19
- Time: 19:45
- Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi
The stand out fixture on the opening weekend of Serie A sees last season’s runners-up, Napoli, travel to Florence to play Fiorentina.
Napoli again come into this campaign as the best team to challenge Juventus for the title and the signings of Alex Meret in goal and Roma centre-half, Konstantinos Manolas, they look better equipped.
As for Fiorentina, they had an extremely disappointing season, finishing in 16th position, just three points above the relegation zone. That was the first time since the 11/12 campaign that La Viola had finished in the bottom half of the table.
However, they seem to have had a decent summer in terms of incomings, headlined by the arrival of the legendary, Frank Ribery, from Bayern Munich. Their dealings have also seen Kevin Prince Boateng make the move to Florence, as well as the loan deal for Milan Badelj from Lazio.
Napoli head into the game as favourites but they are as small as 7/10 with some bookmakers, which seems a little odd given they are away and it is the first game of the season, to a side who are definitely not the 16th worst in the league by a long shot.
Last season was a real poor one for Fiorentina, but given time, new coach, Vincenzo Montella, who only had one month of the season in charge, should be able to get them back to where they should be in the top 10.
Napoli will be looking to start the season in the right way with a win, but this game is going to be a lot closer than the bookies are making out.
La Viola’s new signing, Frank Ribery, is unlikely to start but will have a place on the bench. Otherwise, both sides have all players available to start the season.
Potential Fiorentina Starting XI: Dragowski; Lirola, Milenkovic, Pezzella, Terzic; Pulgar, Badelj, Benassi; Chiesa, Boateng, Sottil
Potential Napoli Starting XI: Meret; Lorenzo, Manolas, Koulibaly, Ghoulam; Allan, Ruiz; Callejon, Zielinksi, Insigne; Mertens
Head To Head
- Napoli lead the H2H 15-12 but haven’t won away to Fiorentina since 2014 but have won nine of the last 14 matches against this weekend’s opponents.
- Fiorentina – 41/10
- Draw – 11/4
- Napoli – 79/100
As I said, this game is certainly not what the bookies might think it is. Napoli, away from home, lost to the likes of Empoli and Bologna towards the end of last season and Napoli haven’t won in Florence since 2014 (P4 W0 D3 L1).
Fiorentina’s home form was odd last season. They started off winning their opening four games at home, conceding just once and scoring 12 but then won just one of their remaining 15, even though they only lost five times. They managed a staggering 17 draws, a league high and only conceded 45 goals, which was in the top 6 for best defensive records.
So clearly, draws were the problem but scoring goals was also a difficulty at times for La Viola but the signings of KPB and Ribery should go some way to helping in that area. However, Napoli scored the second highest amount of goals in the league with 74 and averaged 1.7 goals a game away from home in the 18/19 campaign.
Fiorentina are a much better side than last season showed and at home, they were hard to beat, even if they couldn’t win many. They drew half of their games at home and only conceded 19 goals all season at the Artemio Franchi, just a goal a game on average (duh).
With all that in mind, I don’t think this game will be full of goals and I don’t really fancy backing either side here in the outright market. Therefore, I am going to go against goals here and under 2.5 goals looks really appealing at a nudge above EVENS at 109/100.