Liverpool v Chelsea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 14/08/19
James Cormack (@jamescormack_) previews Liverpool v Chelsea and provides us with his best bets for this season’s UEFA Super Cup by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: +6.77pts
Liverpool v Chelsea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 14/08/19
- Time: 20:00
- Venue: BJK Vodafone Park, Istanbul
- Channel: BT Sport
Liverpool and Chelsea will be looking to grab their first piece of silverware for the 2019/20 season as they meet in this year’s UEFA Super Cup.
In Europe, this fixture has been packed with controversy, shocking moments, late drama, wonder goals and ultimately, some of the best games in UEFA history.
Last season saw Liverpool win their sixth Champions League title after a cagey 2-0 victory over Spurs in the final. It was a run that included their miraculous turnaround in the semi-final against Barcelona, where they overcame a 3-0 first-leg deficit in what was one of the greatest comebacks in football history.
Under Maurizio Sarri in 18/19, Chelsea won their second Europa League, a victory that was made even sweeter by the fact that they humiliated London rivals Arsenal in the final. Frank Lampard will take his young side into the Champions League this season and it’ll certainly be interesting to see how he fares in a competition that he thrived in as a player.
These two sides fared quite the opposite on the opening weekend of the Premier League season. The Reds eased past newly-promoted Norwich 4-1 (4-0 up at half-time), whilst Chelsea suffered a surprising 4-0 defeat at Old Trafford to Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s rather youthful Man United side.
After their defeat in Manchester on Sunday, it could be quite easy to rule Lampard’s side out of the top-four race this season. However, I’m not reading too much into it. They were without their best defender in Antonio Rudiger, one of the best central-midfielders in the world (for most of it) in N’Golo Kante, their most creative and powerful player in Ruben Loftus-Cheek and one of the most exciting U21 prospects in world football in Callum Hudson-Odoi. They dominated large parts of the first-half and were very unfortunate to be trailing at half-time. They had an xG of 1.34 whilst United’s was 2.36, highlighting that Chelsea underperformed in front of goal whilst United overachieved. Ultimately, defensive errors and lapses in concentration cost the Blues in the second half.
Jurgen Klopp and Liverpool will be licking their lips after seeing Chelsea’s rather dismal defensive display on Sunday. Friday night’s game at Anfield saw a Liverpool performance we’ve got so accustomed to seeing over the past two seasons; simply blowing teams away with their intense, high-press and their incredible speed on the counter. The Canaries were 4-0 down by half-time and although it wasn’t the cleanest of defensive performances, I think the game showed us that Liverpool will be well within the mix come May.
This fixture undoubtedly comes at an inconvenient time for English clubs, but, it does give both managers a chance to give minutes to those returning from injury or lacking match fitness, in preparation for the second round of Premier League fixtures. On Saturday, Liverpool travel to Southampton whilst Chelsea host Leicester on Super Sunday.
Alisson is out for a ‘number of weeks’ with a calf injury he sustained against Norwich, giving ex-West Ham no.1 Adrian a run of games in the starting XI. Nathaniel Clyne is also out for the long-term with a knee injury.
Frank Lampard will likely give starts to N’Golo Kante, Olivier Giroud and Christian Pulisic on Wednesday after the trio came on as second half substitutes at Old Trafford on Sunday.
Antonio Rudiger, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Callum Hudson-Odoi remain out, but, Willian is in contention for a start.
Potential Liverpool Starting XI: Adrian, Alexander-Arnold, Matip, Van Dijk, Robertson, Fabinho, Henderson, Keita, Mane, Origi, Salah.
Potential Chelsea Starting XI: Kepa, Azpilicueta, Zouma, Christensen, Alonso, Jorginho, Kante, Pulisic, Barkley, Willian, Giroud.
Head To Head
- All-time: Liverpool- 78, Draw-41, Chelsea-63.
- In UEFA competitions: Liverpool-2, Draw-5, Chelsea-3.
Key Stats & Facts
- Liverpool have appeared in the Super Cup five times; winning three and losing two.
- Chelsea have appeared three times; winning once and losing twice.
- This is the first all-English encounter in the Super Cup.
- Four of the last six Super Cups have been decided in extra-time or by penalties.
- In the past seven years, only once has the team that won the Europa League gone on to win the Super Cup (Atletico beat Real Madrid 4-2 in extra-time last year).
- Liverpool 8/13
- Draw 13/4
- Chelsea 5/1
When Liverpool finished fourth in the 2016/17 season and 17 points behind Antonio Conte’s Chelsea (who won the title), I don’t think many would’ve predicted the Blues to be 5/1 underdogs against the Reds on a neutral field two years later. The turnaround of both of these club’s has been rather drastic. Since then, Liverpool have reached two Champions League finals, winning one and have tallied one of the highest single-season point totals in Premier League history, whereas Chelsea are coming off back-to-back seasons where they’ve finished behind the title-winners by over 20 points.
Nevertheless, one bet I like for this one is Liverpool to win with both teams scoring. In the past seven years, both teams have scored in this fixture in all but one. Chelsea will have to keep the same personnel defensively for Wednesday’s game and I don’t think there’s any chance they’ll keep out Liverpool’s superb front-three. Jose Mourinho in his post-match analysis spoke about how Chelsea struggled to make the pitch compact after losing possession and failed to deal with United’s counter-attack. If United were able to exploit Chelsea, I shouldn’t think Liverpool, who are arguably the best counter-attacking side in Europe will have too many issues. I’d be surprised if the Blues don’t get on the scoresheet as well on Wednesday night. The Blues wasted a number of good chances at Old Trafford and certainly showed they are more than capable of posing a threat. With Willian and Pulisic potentially occupying both wings with Barkley as the no.10, I think we could see Chelsea causing problems for a Liverpool defence that gave Norwich few too many sniffs for my liking.
The other bet I fancy is a longshot at 17/2 and its Virgil Van Dijk getting on the scoresheet. Last season, Chelsea conceded the joint-second most goals from set-pieces (15) whilst Liverpool scored the most (20). The Dutchman scored 6 goals in all-competitions last season and did get Liverpool’s third in their win over Norwich last Friday. The reigning PFA POTY is a monster in the air and looks a threat every time he enters the box. I’m backing him to get on the end of another perfect Trent Alexander-Arnold set-piece in Istanbul on Wednesday night.