Football specialist and pro-punter Dave South (@LockupTipster) provides us with his selections for this week’s #MagicMark feature.
Magic Mark – Week 4
We enter the third weekend of the Premier League campaign as punters welcome back other European leagues with thousands of bets to consider.
For some readers out there who have known my style may be familiar to this and believe with the correct discipline will reward readers with a pleasing return on investment or ROI for short.
My strategy is simple and the one thing a punter hates is being let down by one selection! With my strategy you can be let down by one selection and still make a small profit for the next round of competition. This is what we call #MagicMark. We will introduce our safety bet feature in conjunction within the next few weeks as form begins to paint a picture.
Firstly the principles of this column is to identify three selections which must all be 4/5 (1.80) or greater to qualify. Any bookie offering less than the mark mark fail to make the cut.
Last week demonstrated where our three selections produced two winners at 10/11 and 5/4, which helped claw back some of the losses from week one and we aim to over turn this as quickly as possible.
This week we offer prices at 5/6, 23/20 and 11/10 which in turn creates an accumulator at 7.23/1, although it must be stressed that this is not the purpose of this feature.
We begin this week in a London Derby with Watford and West Ham squaring off, where both sides have got off to disappointing starts to their respective campaigns. Watford come into the game as the marginal favourites, with West Ham BIG at 13/5 to win the game. The Hammers won the tie last time round, and with Watford having lost their last five Premier League games will be under some pressure to make amends.
With the need for a win on both sides can warrant the possibility of seeing plenty of corners in the game. Two of the last three have seen over 10 corners land. The last meeting was a seemingly meaningless game right at the end of the season, which landed nine. Bet365 have priced up the Asian line at 10, meaning they are taking the punt on it landing on ten. The benefit of the line where it is, is that as long as the tie gets to ten, we will be at least be assured our money back, with eleven or more as a winner. As the market price is even money for eleven or more with some firms, and no bigger than 11/10, the 5/6 quoted on a money back scenario of landing ten is by no means a bet not to ignore.
West Ham have averaged 3.5 corners over two games, with Watford pocketing an average of six. In respect one of the hammers games was against Manchester City, where corners taken are generally at a premium, the line of ten is surely on the punters side.
Second up sees Fulham looking to take another three points, as they welcome Nottingham Forest to Craven Cottage. Fulham were majestic in midweek taking in excess of 84% possession in a dominant display against Millwall bagging a 4-0 thrashing. Fulham were effective in creating goal scoring opportunities and were strong at finishing.
The Cottagers have won all of the last three meetings and take on a Forest side looking to make it four unbeaten. Fulham's only goal conceded in the last three was down to a VAR ruling where the ball was right on the goal line last Friday against Huddersfield and other than that have remained strong. Forest have not been that dominant with their possession, with average 45.5% with a pass completion of 75.4%.
Scott Parker's Fulham in comparison have a greater dominance, with a better pass completion heading towards the 87%, With short passing, and good rhythm, punters will be locking in the home side at 13/20 and the bet we are taking on is for the White's to go one better and attempt to win by two or more.
With the match odds at 13/20, the Asian Handicap price -1 is 11/10, again with the insurance that will strike money back if they win by just one. This would have won in two of the last three.
Lastly, we head to Scotland and Cove Rangers, where they have come in from 7/2 backed by respected gambling legend; The Godfather of Betting himself Tony Ansell to even money to take the title and have impressed throughout in their powerful start.
Averaging four goals a game in the opening three games saw a 5-0, 4-4 and 3-2 diary of scorelines and go to Stirling Albion, who are win-less in their opening three. One bet i had considered, which is one that i may post on my home site is for Cove to score in both halves, which i saw was big at 17/10 having a 100% success rate in this market.
Cove have good investment in the club and are sure to power through the season to make their mark and again at 4/7 will be popular on punters accumulators this weekend. The Aberdeen based outfit will make the couple of hours journey south, with nothing less than three points on the agenda. Stirling have found goals a premium in comparison and have just three goals this season. With the match price at 4/7 and the Asian Handicap price minus 1 at 23/20 is more generous than the Fulham game comparably.