Football specialist James O’Rourke (@JamesOR1) previews Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s FA Cup Semi-Final by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

• 2019 Profit & Loss: +3.78pts

Man City v Brighton Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

• Date: 06/04/19
• Time: 17:30
• Venue: Wembley Stadium
• Channel: BBC One

Wembley Stadium is the setting this weekend as the FA Cup Semi-Finals commence. First up, it is Manchester City versus Brighton & Hove Albion. Unsurprisingly, Pep Guardiola’s men are huge favourites to secure their spot in the showpiece event in May, as they look to follow up on their earlier season triumph in the Carabao Cup. They also continued to fight seriously for the Premier League and UEFA Champions League. Whilst they are sweating on the fitness of Sergio Aguero, one thing Man City don’t lack is strength in depth. Brighton on the other hand produced a rather timid effort in midweek when going down away at Chelsea. Certainly one eye was on their weekend return to the Capital, as they look to participate in the FA Cup Final for the first time since 1983. They needed two very, very late goals and then penalties to knock Championship side Millwall out in the last round. Man City would come from 2-0 down to defeat Swansea in their Quarter-Final encounter.

Team News

With Pep Guardiola’s side still fighting on three further fronts to try and back-up their Carabao Cup success, he made seven changes to the Man City starting eleven for their midweek Premier League encounter at home to Cardiff City. A concern was that Argentinian striker Sergio Aguero missed out entirely through injury, but the club are still hopeful he will be available to play at Wembley this Saturday. Vincent Kompany also returned to the squad on Wednesday. Fabian Delph remains a doubt, whilst Claudio Bravo is still a long-term issue. Nevertheless, whatever eleven is selected by Guardiola, it promises to be strong. Oleksandr Zinchenko is a concern after being forced off versus Cardiff. Benjamin Mendy could deputise.

Chris Hughton made a couple of alterations for their trip to Chelsea in the week as well. Bruno and Gaetan Bong were recalled into the Seagulls starting eleven, whilst Solley March and Florin Andone were introduced into the team as well. March would be taken off in the first half through injury, making him a doubt for the next match. Top scorer Glenn Murray was left on the bench, with Hughton having half an eye on the Semi-Final this weekend.

Potential Man City Starting XI: Ederson, Walker, Otamendi, Laporte, Mendy, De Bruyne, Fernandino, D.Silva, B.Silva, Aguero, Sterling.

Potential Brighton Starting XI: Ryan, Montoya, Duffy, Dunk, Bernardo, Propper, Stephens, Bissouma, Knockaert, Murray, Jahanbakhsh

Head To Head

• There has been three meetings between these two since Brighton were promoted into the Premier League in 2017. They have lost all three, with Man City recording 2-0, 3-1 and 2-0 victories. The two sides did meet once before in 2008 in the League Cup, and it was Brighton who came out on top on that occasion, where they won on penalties.
• Saturday’s FA Cup Semi-Final will be the 20^th ever meeting of this battle. Man City are going in search of their 12^th victory.
• This weekend will also be the third ever FA Cup clash between these two. Man City won the first contest by a 5-1 score all the way back in 1924, which was the first ever game between the two clubs. Brighton would get payback in 1983 when securing a 4-0 victory.

Key Stats & Facts

• Brighton are winless away from home against the ‘big six’ teams since winning promotion into the Premier League.
• Saturday will be Man City’s fourth trip to Wembley this season. They have won on all three previous visits. This was the Community Shield, the Carabao Cup Final and in the Premier League against Tottenham.
• Pep Guardiola has overseen 16 FA Cup matches in charge of the Citizens. He has only been on the losing side on three occasions. Once to Chelsea, another in extra time against Arsenal and last season away to then League One team Wigan Athletic.
• Man City have a near perfect record in 2019. Only Newcastle United has defeated them, and Chelsea in the Carabao Cup Final was the only other occasion they’ve failed to win inside 90 minutes since the turn of the year.
• Brighton have lost their last two games, but only in one series of results this season have they suffered from losses in succession. This came during December, when suffering setbacks to Burnley, Chelsea and Bournemouth in Premier League fixtures.

Betting Odds

• Man City 2/17
• Draw 15/2
• Brighton 28/1

The Verdict

Although this is essentially a game involving two teams in the Premier League, the likes of Brighton just aren’t on the same level as Manchester City at this moment in time. There is no disgrace in that, but it is reality. If Brighton are to win this game, then an occasion like this in a one-off event at a neutral venue is probably as good a chance as any that they’ll get. However, Guardiola’s side are despatching everything in their path with ease these days. Only Newcastle has denied them winning every game in 2019.

There is no value at all in backing Man City on the 1×2 line, but there are other ways of getting them on side. For all their attacking quality and amount of goals that they’re scoring, their defence deserves some plaudits as well. They’ve kept a clean sheet in six of their last eight, including over 120 minutes against Chelsea in the Carabao Cup Final. Brighton scrapped through versus Millwall in the last round, and whilst that was a unique test, a big pitch at Wembley against a free-flowing opponent is another. They’ll need the performance of their lives and hope that City have an off-day. Brighton have the fifth-worst scoring record in the Premier League. City have scored 51 more goals.

Whilst I don’t think Brighton will necessarily be embarrassed in this game, I do think there has to be a play in relation to goals and Man City. Raheem Sterling is no stranger to the surroundings of Wembley and having been rested to the bench in midweek, he’ll be firing on all cylinders.

Brighton may look to ruffle up a few feathers to try and disrupt Man City as best as they can. Hughton won’t want his side to be a pretty opponent to play against. One player that has been among the yellow cards of late is Martin Montoya, and, with City such a threat in the wide areas, he is one who could overstep the mark on one or two occasions.