2019 BMW Championship Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

2019 BMW Championship Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Rob Taylor (@RobTaylorSport) previews the BMW Championship and provides us with his best bets for this week’s second playoff event in America.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +8.2pts

2019 BMW Championship Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 15/08/19
  • Time: First tee off 12pm (GMT)
  • Venue: Course No.3, Medinah Country Club, Medinah, Chicago
  • Channel: Sky Sports Golf

It was looking so good at the half way mark of The Northern Trust, with headline pick Dustin Johnson (16/1) leading the way and Justin Thomas (20/1) close in behind. Unfortunately, DJ capitulated over the weekend, making numerous errors which saw him fade away, with Patrick Reed being a deserved winner, in what was another blank week for this preview. It’s been a frustrating few weeks for my picks, with the trend continuing of the players being in contention over the first two or three rounds, before something goes wrong when it really matters!

A lot of the focus of last week’s tournament has been on Bryson DeChambeau’s incredibly slow play, where he took nearly two and a half minutes to hit a putt from about 6 foot and 3 minutes to pace out a 70 yard approach chip. It’s caused further uproar from fans, pundits and players alike, with the issue of slow play becoming more and more prominent on the games main tours. The governing bodies surely have to step in and start penalising players, before TV audiences start to switch off.

We move on to this week and the 2nd playoff event at the BMW Championship. Held at Medinah this year, scene of the 2012 Ryder Cup, where Europe turned around a seemingly impossible deficit to retain the trophy, Medinah has also hosted the PGA Championship twice, in 2006 and 1999, both being won by Tiger Woods.

A 70 player field competes this week, with the top 30 in the FedEx ranking progressing to next week’s Tour Championship. It’s set to be another enthralling event at one the game’s best courses. Keegan Bradley is the defending champion, albeit at a different course.

Recent winners of The BMW Championship (held at different courses)

  • 2018 – Keegan Bradley
  • 2017 – Marc Leishman
  • 2016 – Dustin Johnson
  • 2015 – Jason Day
  • 2014 – Billy Horschel
  • 2013 – Zach Johnson
  • 2012 – Rory McIlroy
  • 2011 – Justin Rose

Key Stats & Facts

Medinah’s Course No.3 is a 7,657 par 72 brute. A classical track, which has been redesigned by Rees Jones in recent years, this tree lined beauty, famed for its length and undulating fairways, has two of its par 5s measuring over 600 yards, with water in play on three iconic par 3’s. Strength from tee to green will be crucial again this week, with players requiring an accurate 2nd shot to position themselves in the right portion of these tricky greens.

The course has been further lengthened since the 2006 PGA Championship, which saw a leaderboard consisting of players such as Luke Donald, Mike Weir, KJ Choi and Ryan Moore get blown away by winner Tiger Woods. These shorter hitters are not a style of player I’m expecting to see this in the chasing pack this week.

Betting Odds

Each Way 1/5 the odds for top 7 places  (Paddy Power)

  • Rory McIlroy 8/1
  • Brooks Koepka 8/1
  • Jon Rahm 11/1
  • Dustin Johnson 14/1
  • Justin Thomas 16/1
  • Justin Rose 18/1
  • Webb Simpson 22/1
  • Patrick Cantlay 22/1
  • Patrick Reed 20/1
  • Adam Scott 25/1

The Verdict

These playoff events come thick and fast and it’s often those that are in cracking current form that contend. I’m seeking players with a strong tee to green game, with solid recent performances, in order to challenge the very top of the market. Whilst I think Rory is the clear man to beat this week, I’m happy to delve a little deeper to seek some value.

Recommended Bets (1/5 the odds 7 places with Paddy Power)

  • Justin Rose – 2pts Each Way, 18/1, Paddy Power

It’s fair to say that Rose, ranked 4th in the world, has gone a bit under the radar this season. Deliberately reducing the amount of tournaments he’s playing, this has not hindered Rose in remaining one of the most consistent performers on tour and is currently 12th in the FedEx rankings.

With season stats reading; 26th from tee to green, 24th in approach, 2nd in putting and 6th strokes gained, Rose has all the armory to challenge this week at Medinah.

Rose always strikes me as a players that thrives at the big events, and this is backed up by his performances at these this season; 3rd in the US Open, 10th at The Open, 13th at Memorial, 11th at the WGC St Jude and 10th last week at the Northern Trust, all demonstrate that Rose is back to his consistent ball striking best and this classical test at Medinah should really suit his game. With a win already at The Farmers earlier in the season, along with a whole host of high profile top 10s, Rose is showing enough that he could go very close this week, and is one of my main two big picks.

Adam Scott – 2pts Each Way, 25/1, Paddy Power

Scott is another who has been a bit more selective in his schedule this year, but its paid off with nine top 20 finishes at big events, including; 12th at The Players, 18th at The Masters, 8th at PGA Championship, 2nd at Memorial and 7th at the US Open. He backed this up with a great 5th place last week at the Northern Trust.

The Australian also finished T3, when the PGA Championship was played here in 2006, so he clearly likes the challenge of Medinah. On a course, where a strong tee to green game will be required, Scott lies 4th in the strokes gained tee to green category and 4th in approach this season, which all adds up to him being my other big fancy this week.  Adam is also 14th in the FedEx rankings and looks assured of a spot at the Tour Championship.

  • Louis Oosthuizen – 1pt Each Way, 45/1, Paddy Power

Another very strong tee to green player whose form has been simmering for a while is Louis Oosthuizen. 7th at the US Open, a top 20 at The Open, 20th at the WGC St Jude and 6th last week at the Northern Trust, shows that the South African’s game is in fine shape. Regularly shooting in the 60’s, the 2010 Open champion is playing some very nice golf right now and with his razor sharp short game, should he miss the target, Oosthuizen is one of the best to keep the score ticking. Louis sits 33rd from tee to green across the season, but these stats are considerably stronger across the last 8 weeks since the US Open.

Louis will be further motivated to perform well this week as he currently sits 28th in the FedEx rankings, so with only the top 30 progressing to next week’s Tour Championship, he’ll need to fend off some stiff competition from those around him in the rankings to be assured of his spot at East Lake.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts Each Way – Justin Rose @ 18/1 (Paddy Power)
  • 2pts Each Way – Adam Scott @ 25/1 (Paddy Power)
  • 1pt Each Way – Louis Oosthuizen @ 45/1 (Paddy Power)