Just five months after the UK voted to leave the EU, bookmakers have slashed the odds on Brexit not coming to fruition. Betting markets are said to be in chaos after the Government’s surprising defeat in the High Court.
Bookmakers Slash Odds On Brexit Not Happening
The Brexit court challenge, led by investment manager and campaigner Gina Miller, means that article 50 cannot be triggered without first winning a parliamentary vote. Britain can only begin to negotiate their exit from the European Union once article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon is triggered. Once the article is triggered the process is said to take two years and if Theresa May is to be believed then that would mean UK will officially be out of the EU no later than April 2019. The government has said the ruling will be appealed, with the case set to be heard at the Supreme Court in December. Prime Minister Theresa May has previously stated that article 50 would be triggered before the end of March 2017, but the court case has put this up in air.
The exchange’s market on the article not being triggered before July 2017 has now shortened dramatically. Bets had been matched at as high as 10/1 since the referendum took place but prices are now around 5/2. Furthermore, Ladbrokes odds of Brexit not happening before 2021 or at all have dropped from 5/1 to 2/1.
Ladbrokes does still make 2017 the 2/7 favourite for the time of the trigger despite the odds being as low as 1/5 not that long ago, with Downing Street saying that the ruling has not changed the timetable for Brexit. However, odds of a second referendum taking place before 2019 were cut in half by Paddy Power in wake of the situation, where you can now get 5/1, whilst odds on SkyBet for a referendum to take place before 2020 are as low as 11/4.