Football specialist James O’Rourke (@JamesOR1) assesses the 2019 Copa America Tournament Top Goalscorer market and provides us with his best bets.
2019 Copa America Top Goalscorer Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
Following a three-year absence, those of a South American football persuasion will get their fix of summer football once again as the Copa America returns for 2019. This will be the 46th edition of the famous tournament, and host nation Brazil will be going all-out for a ninth success, having last won it in 2007. Chile will be going in search of a third succession crown in this competition. We’re putting together a Top Goalscorer Preview for you to gander over, and one thing you generally need to do when trying to find the top man is deciding who you think which team will win the tournament overall. Six of the last seven tournament top scorer’s (or joint) came from a team which won the whole thing. Eduardo Vargas of Chile netted the most last time around, and shared the individual honour with Peru’s Paolo Guerrero the time previous. Both return looking to continue the goalscoring theme three years on.
The bookies have Brazil as outright favourites to lift the trophy in the Maracanã on July 7th, which is no great surprise. Argentina are deemed relatively close second favourites, and with a certain Lionel Messi on board then that’s also understandable. Uruguay, Colombia and Chile complete the list of teams who are realistically competing to be outright victors, so we’ll focus our attention of those sides when looking for an overall top goalscorer.
Messi is a fairly short 3/1 shot to score the most. He beat the goalkeeper seven times in qualification for the last World Cup, however he only scored once when appearing in Russia, and Argentina did make it to the knockout stage. Rule him out at your peril, but I’m still not 100% convinced on Argentina, who I feel may struggle against the better sides. This is highlighted by the fact they’ve dropped points/not won in friendlies versus the likes of Brazil, Colombia, France, Croatia and Spain over the last year or two.
Neymar won’t appear for Brazil having suffered an injury during a recent warm-up match. He would have likely been one of the contenders for the Golden Boot, so that opens up the market to a degree, although shortening the price of Messi. I do feel as though this might actually help Brazil, who you could rely are either very dependent on the PSG winger or he himself likes to shoulder possibly too much of the responsibility. With the likes of Gabriel Jesus, Roberto Firmino and Richarlison within their ranks it means they shouldn’t lack for goals. However, I just wonder if they’ll buckle under the weight of expectation at the tournament. They’ll get through their group, but they’ll like face one of Uruguay or Chile in the semi’s and they’ll give them a test.
Colombia seem to make heavy weather in major competitions and I’ll look elsewhere for goals. Chile might have won the last two but can we realistically expect them to make it three in a row? They certainly have a shot, but an outside one at best. Their form in 2018 and 2019 is purely from friendlies, but that is all we have to go off in recent times and they’ve not been too spectacular; quite disappointing to be honest.
Uruguay are in the same group as Chile and they are the team I quite like the look of overall. It took eventual winners France to knock them out of the last World Cup and they comfortably qualified behind Brazil. Edinson Cavani was top scorer in that period with ten goals, ahead of the likes of Messi, Jesus, Neymar, Guerrero and Alexis Sanchez. I fancy them to reach the semi-finals quite comfortably and they’d give Brazil a real run for their money in the semi’s. Of course, there is a certain Luis Suarez in the mix too, but he is shorter price in the betting for top goalscorer. One other factor to consider is that Cavani was injured between the middle of February and only really returned at full throttle at the beginning on May. He got four full games for PSG before the season ended, which should put him right for this competition and the timing couldn’t be better. At 8/1 he represents terrific value.
- Lionel Messi 3/1
- Gabriel Jesus 7/1
- Luis Suarez 8/1
- Edinson Cavani 8/1
- Sergio Aguero 10/1
- Roberto Firmin0 14/1
- Radamel Falcao 16/1
- Richarlison 16/1