2019 Mexican Grand Prix Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

2019 Mexican Grand Prix Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Formula 1 specialist Ben Issatt (@BenIssatt) previews the upcoming Mexican Grand Prix and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s race.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -0.75pts

2019 Mexican Grand Prix Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 29/09
  • Time: 19:10pm GMT
  • Venue: Mexico City, Mexico
  • Channel: Sky Sports F1

Lewis Hamilton bids for more championship glory as Formula 1 joins the fiesta at the Mexican Grand Prix.

Two weeks after Mercedes secured a sixth straight Constructors’ title in Japan, the Briton can claim a sixth Drivers’ crown of his own on Sunday and move to within one of the record set by Michael Schumacher.

To do that Hamilton must outscore his teammate Valtteri Bottas by 14 points or more, and there is a chance as he starts third on the grid, while Bottas is set to start from sixth.

This follows a controversial qualifying session on Saturday in Mexico City, which saw Max Verstappen claim pole only to be penalised for ignoring yellow flags on his second flying lap in Q3.

The cause of the yellow flag was Bottas, who crashed at the final corner, and now faces an anxious wait to see if he’ll keep his P6 on the grid or whether the damage will force to drop down the field.

All this means, Charles Leclerc will start from pole for the race, leading an all-Ferrari front row with Sebastian Vettel alongside.

Hamilton takes third with Verstappen dropping to fourth and thus setting up what promises to be a fascinating battle for victory on Sunday.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Mexico has had three spells on the F1 calendar, 1963-70, 1986-1992 & 2015-present.
  • Verstappen has won the past two Mexican GPs for Red Bull.
  • Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is the highest circuit in F1 at 2,250m above sea level.
  • Hamilton has won his past two F1 titles in Mexico but only with a best finish of 4th.

Betting Odds 

  • Charles Leclerc – 11/8 (Coral)
  •  Sebastian Vettel – 13/5 (PaddyPower)
  •  Max Verstappen – 7/2 (Betfair)
  •  Lewis Hamilton – 11/2 (Unibet)

The Verdict

Despite stupidly losing pole by talking himself into a penalty, Verstappen is still very much the man to beat in Mexico.

He surprised everyone by beating Ferrari over a single lap and his pace advantage is likely to be bigger in the race

The one thing everyone will be talking about though is tyres, with degradation expected to be such that teams could use three or even four-stop strategies.

Avoiding or managing the graining which causes the high tyre wear will be crucial and this is where Verstappen has been very good in recent years in Mexico.

Not only that, but the extreme altitude means the Honda engine could well be the strongest, as it was back in Austria, allowing Max to regain the places he has lost.

The interesting battle will be for the final podium places with Ferrari, Mercedes and even Alex Albon likely in the hunt.

A slow pace is expected which could allow the Thai driver to benefit from Red Bull’s race pace and challenge the top three, while the likely duel between Leclerc and Vettel is impossible to call.

All this is also dependent on whether the leading drivers make it through the first three corners safely.

The dash to Turn 1 at the start has produced plenty of drama before while the tight right-hander into a chicane often sees carbon fibre go flying.

In the midfield, a cat and mouse game is in store with strategy.

McLaren and Toro Rosso have been the quickest teams all weekend, but to secure P7-P10 all four cars had to use the soft tyre which is particularly weak.

Meanwhile, Sergio Perez and the two Renaults, starting P11-13, will have free choice and will no doubt look to benefit by using the preferred medium compound.

A slow pace from the leaders could help Sainz, Norris, Kvyat and Gasly manage their fragile rubber and one good stint could well make all the difference.

Recommended Bets

  • 2.5pts – Verstappen to win – 7/2 (Betfair)
  • 1.5pts – Double Red Bull podium – 9/1 (William Hill)
  • 1pt – Perez to finish in Top 6 – 7/1 (SkyBet)