2019 Monaco Grand Prix Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

2019 Monaco Grand Prix Betting Preview, Odds And Tips

Formula 1 specialist Ben Issatt (@BenIssatt) previews the upcoming Monaco Grand Prix and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s race.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +8.75pts

2019 Monaco Grand Prix Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 25/5
  • Time: 14:10pm BST
  • Venue: Monte Carlo, Monaco
  • Channel: Sky Sports F1

Formula 1 is in the South of France for the most iconic race of the year, the Monaco Grand Prix in Monte Carlo.

Known as the ‘Jewel in the Crown’, cars have been racing through the streets of the principality since 1929 making this the 90th anniversary of the inaugural event organized by Anthony Noghes.

In that time, Monaco has created a history all of its own and while other races have caught up in terms of the sense of occasion, the prestige of winning one leg of motorsport’s Triple Crown has not diminished.

Much of the circuit is unchanged too, including the run through Casino Square, the famous hairpin and the blast through the tunnel along the boat-lined seafront.

As you’d expect a great race has a great roll call of winners with Ayrton Senna the most successful drivers with six wins to his name.

Michael Schumacher and Graham Hill each have five wins and the most successful recent driver is Nico Rosberg with three from 2013-2015.

Lewis Hamilton has two to his name, the last in 2016, but will look to make it a hat trick after claiming pole on Saturday.

It has been a very close battle so far this weekend, as he only beat teammate Valtteri Bottas by 0.086s in qualifying as Mercedes’ domination this year continues.

Max Verstappen secured third ahead of Sebastian Vettel, but there was drama as a wrong strategy call by Ferrari left Charles Leclerc down in 16th on the grid.

What do the results mean for potential betting options on Sunday’s race? Here are my selections

Key Stats & Facts

  • Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull have enjoyed one win each the past three years.
  • Monaco is the only race not to run to the usual 300km + 1 lap rule.
  • Max Verstappen and Valtteri Bottas have never finished on the podium.
  • Daniel Ricciardo has led the most laps of any driver around Monaco since 2016.

Betting Odds

  • Lewis Hamilton 4/9 (BetFred)
  • Valtteri Bottas 4/1 (Ladbrokes)
  • Max Verstappen 6/1 (Bet365)
  • Sebastian Vettel 18/1 (Unibet)

The Verdict

Because Monaco is infamous for processional races, there’s not much value to be had on those at the front of the grid.

Even Leclerc starting 15th is 1/2 for a Top 10 finish (Ladbrokes) which is very short odds around a track where overtaking is so difficult.

So instead, I’ve taken a Monte Carlo-style gamble and looked for the opportunities in the midfield where the biggest shake-ups will come.

Daniel Ricciardo has a very strong recent record around Monaco, winning this race last year, and will start in sixth with Renault.

Therefore, I have tipped him to Finish in the Top 6 in what will likely be an interesting battle with the man who replaced him at Red Bull, Pierre Gasly.

Looking at those just outside the top 10, there is three teams who could have drivers step up and earn double points.

Haas have looked quick but have drivers susceptible to errors, Renault likewise but their weakness is unreliability so that’s why I’ve gone for McLaren to score Double Points.

Carlos Sainz has scored every year he’s raced in Monaco and teammate Lando Norris has been consistent this year so if he stays out of trouble positions can be gained from P12.

Part of that calculation is also seeing who might be the drivers to push the limit too far and retire.

There is a group of names that would be instantly chosen when suggesting who might be the First to Retire and they are all around the same price.

Romain Grosjean and Daniil Kvyat both sit at 14/1 with SkyBet but Lance Stroll would probably be the favourite of the group and he sits at 16/1 with Bet365 so why not!

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Daniel Ricciardo – Top 6 finish 7/4 (Bet365)
  • 0.5pts – McLaren – Double Points finish 7/2 (SkyBet)
  • 0.1pt – Lance Stroll – First to Retire 16/1 (Bet365)