2019 US Open Betting Preview, Odds and Tips | 13/06/19

2019 US Open Betting Preview, Odds and Tips

Golf specialist Rob Taylor (@RobTaylorSport) previews The US Open and provides us with his best bets for this week’s event.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +45.75pts

2019 US Open Betting Preview, Odds and Tips

  • Date: Thursday 13th – Sunday 16th
  • Venue: Pebble Beach Golf Links, Pebble Beach, California
  • Channel: Sky Sports Golf

Briefly touching on last week, it was great to get an each way return on 35/1 pick Henrik Stenson at the Canadian Open. Rory put on a masterclass to win easily in the end and with Garcia and Bjerregaard both disappointingly missing the cut, the preview came close to another return with 80/1 pick Van Rooyen being in contention right up and the closing holes. It keeps momentum going into what is going to be another stellar week.

The revised schedule this year means that the major championships come thick and fast and we go to Pebble Beach this week for the 119th US Open. Scene of the 2000 and 2010 US Open, won by Tiger Woods and Graeme McDowell respectively, Pebble Beach is synonymous with American links golf, and will provide players with a great test this week.

Brooks Koepka is the double defending champion and aiming for a “three-peat”, something which hasn’t been done in a hundred years, and as you’d expect all of the world’s elite are here aiming to win the season’s third major.

Key Stats & Facts

At only 7,075 yards, this coastal par 71 is famed for its stunning scenery, and cliff side holes. The poa annua greens are amongst the smallest on the circuit, so accuracy in approach and a sharp short game are imperative to succeed at Pebble Beach.

There is a big difference to recent renewals of the US Open, where Koepka and DJ have been able to exploit their talents with driver and take the respective courses apart; the big stick will not be the most important club this week.

However long and straight players off the tee, will still hold a key advantage with their approach shots, but don’t be surprised to see  a mixture of 3 wood and long irons taken by many off the tee.

Pebble Beach is also famed for the AT&T Pro Am, which takes part in the early part of the season, in typically cooler and wetter conditions. Whilst experience at Pebble is considered valuable, it isn’t essential this week. The course will be playing so much different to how it played back in early February.

The course itself will play firm and fast this week, with relatively cool and calm conditions for this time of year. The defence for the course therefore will be the rough, it is particularly penal if players miss the fairway and of course around the greens, so patience is often key. Scrambling well will be imperative if players are to eliminate mistakes should they miss the greens.

With this in mind, strokes gained approach; total driving and scrambling are key elements I believe for success this week. The all-around ranking also gives you a steer on the player’s complete play.

Recent winners of the US Open

  • 2018: Brooks Koepka +1 (25/1)
  • 2017: Brooks Koepka -16 (45/1)
  • 2016: Dustin Johnson -4 (16/1)
  • 2015: Jordan Spieth -5 (9/1)
  • 2014: Martin Kaymer -9 (40/1)
  • 2013: Justin Rose +1 (28/1)
  • 2012: Webb Simpson +1 (80/1)
  • 2011: Rory McIlroy -16 (22/1)

Betting Odds – the top 10 in the market (best prices from SkyBet and Paddy Power – paying 10 places)

  • Dustin Johnson 8/1
  • Brooks Koepka 8/1
  • Rory McIlroy 8/1
  • Tiger Woods 11/1
  • Jordan Spieth 16/1
  • Patrick Cantlay 18/1
  • Justin Rose 20/1
  • Rickie Fowler 25/1
  • Xander Schauffele 28/1
  • Justin Thomas 28/1

The Verdict

There are some cracking prices around this week, with Koepka, DJ, Rory ally vying for favouritism at 8/1 and Tiger in close behind at 11/1. All four of my picks feature in the top 12 of the all-around ranking so far this season, and I believe offer some great each way value against the top of the market. In my view this isn’t a week for outsiders, so I’m selecting a quartet of top end players, all with the skillset, form and mentality to contend here at Pebble Beach.

  1. Justin Thomas 28/1

Back from injury which has affected him over the past few weeks, Thomas has been pushed out to a very appealing price this week. His form at the start of the season had him right at the top of the game, including 5 top 10s and very nearly two wins. His 12th place at The Masters was very impressive given his poor first round, and he’s dusted off the injury cobwebs in the past fortnight, finishing 20th last week in Canada.

Thomas is 3rd in the all-around, 7th in approach, 9th around the green and 14th in bogey avoidance, which is an incredible array of stats for someone only just in the top 10 of the betting. Whilst he has no real form at Pebble Beach, he was 9th in the 2017 US Open and is obviously a previous major champion at the 2017 PGA Championship.

I’m a huge fan of Justin Thomas’s game and think it’s only a matter of time before he adds to his major collection, and it could well be this week.

  1. Xander Schauffele 28/1

Regular readers of my previews will know that I’m also a huge admirer of Schauffele. Once again his price in the market allows us to back him each way in a major championship. A two time winner this season, runner up at Augusta and with 6 other top 15 finishes, he is one of the most consistent players on the tour this year.

He ranks 7th in the all-around, 12th in bogey avoidance, 28th in total driving and 33rd in approach. Hi scrambling and putting stats are also pretty decent too. He has the full package.  Schauffele was also 5th and 6th last two years at US Open, as well as being a runner up in the Open Championship last year. A major championship beckons for this talented American and this could well be the week.

  1. Jason Day 33/1

Whilst experience at Pebble isn’t everything this week, given the different format of the AT&T Pro Am event and the time of year it’s typically played, few have better records around here than Jason Day. With six top 6 finishes, including in each of the past three years, Day clearly loves it here. He also has 5 top 10s in the US Open and has been playing some lovely golf this season.

5th at The Masters and 8th at The Players, shows that Day is the man for the big occasion, and with Steve Williams now on the bag, the Aussie could be in line for a challenge for a 2nd major title.

Day is 6th in the all-around ranking, 25th in total driving and 1st in scrambling from the fringe. Whilst his approach play has been disappointing this season, compared to others, the rest of his game is clearly strong enough to see him contend.

  1. Adam Scott 33/1

I complete my team in the outright market with another Aussie, in Adam Scott, who looks back to his best. 2nd last time out at The Memorial, 8th at the PGA Championship, 12th at The Players and 18th at The Masters, he is clearly peaking for the big events.

Scott also sits 12th in the all-around, 37th in total driving, 15th approach and 17th around the green. Whilst his putting from short distances still gets marked as a weakness, his putting stats are actually very good this season.

His record at the US Open is strong, finishing 4th in 2015 and 9th in 2016, whilst also being a strong links player at our own Open Championship, with four top 10s in recent years.

  1. Erik Van Rooyen – 7/1 top 20

I’ve been hugely impressed with Van Rooyen’s rise in the game this season. 8th at the PGA Championship and 17th in last year’s Open Championship are certainly strong indicators at the beginning of a player’s major championship journey.

Whilst just missing out on an each way return for my preview at last week’s Canadian Open, his love for coastal links golf is apparent, and having grown up on the poa annua greens that await at Pebble Beach this week, I fancy the South African for a top 20 finish. If you prefer him in the outright market you can pick him up at around 150/1.

Recommended Bets (With Paddy Power & Sky Bet – 10 places)

  • 2pts Each Way – Justin Thomas 28/1
  • 1.5pts Each Way – Xander Schauffele 28/1
  • 1pt Each Way – Jason Day 33/1
  • 1pt Each Way – Adam Scott 33/1
  • 2pts – Top 20 – Erik Van Rooyen 7/1