Arsenal v Valencia Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 02/05/19

Arsenal v Valencia Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Tom Love (@TomLove_18) previews and provides us with his best bets for Thursday’s Europa League semi-final first-leg clash by analysing team news, potential line ups, head to head, key stats, facts and more.

  • Profit & Loss: -5.9pts

Arsenal v Valencia Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 02/05/19
  • Time: 20:00pm
  • Venue: Emirates Stadium
  • Channel: BT Sport

Arsenal are hoping to put a disappointing three game losing streak to an end as they welcome Valencia to North London for an important semi-final clash.

Both sides are in the running for 4th and champions league qualification in their respective native leagues but both slipped up at the weekend. The Gunners went down 3-0 in a meagre performance at Leicester whereas Los Che fell to a 93rd minute loss at home to Eibar. That means that 4th is actually out of the hands of the pair and therefore puts a greater emphasis on winning the Europa League.

As bad as Arsenal have been of late, their record in this competition has been very strong, especially at the Emirates. They’ve won 5 of their 6 Europa league games on home soil, scoring 13 and conceding just 2. What’s more they have the king of the Europa League in the hot seat in the form of Unai Emery, that gives Arsenal backers a great degree of hope here that they can progress.

They’ll be looking to take an advantage into the second leg at the Mestella, especially given their generally poor road record. Marcelino will have other ideas though, he works his side into the ground and will have them set up in a solid formation and try play with Santi Mina, Rodrigo and Gonçalo Guedes on the break.

Team News

Arsenal remain without long term absentees Danny Welbeck, Hector Bellerin and Rob Holding. Aaron Ramsey is now out for the season, they also have doubts over the fitness of Nacho Monreal and Mesut Ozil.

Valencia will be without midfielder Geoffrey Kondogbia and winger Denis Cheryshev. They have doubts over Cristiano Piccini and Jaume. Ex Arsenal midfielder Francis Coquelin will not play due to suspension.

Potential Arsenal Starting XI: Cech, Maitland-Niles, Koscielny, Sokratis, Monreal, Kolasinac, Torreira, Xhaka, Mkhitaryan, Lacazette, Aubameyang.

Potential Valencia Starting XI: Neto, Wass, Garay, Gabriel, Gaya, Guedes, Parejo, Soler, Torres, Mina, Rodrigo.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Arsenal have won their last 3 Europa League matches.
  • Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 9 of their last 11 Europa League games.
  • Arsenal have been winning at half time and full time in 6 of their last 7 matches.

Betting Odds

  • Arsenal – 1/1
  • Draw – 13/5
  • Valencia – 3/1

The Verdict

I think Arsenal are rightful favourites here and being at home first I do think they’ll go for it, they don’t want to be chasing in the second leg. If Emery plays his best side I think they will have too much however the emission of Aaron Ramsey is a big blow for the Gunners.

Valencia will be delighted with a draw here and I expect them to keep it tight, however it’s hard to disregard the record Emery has in this competition and the onus is on them as the home side to take the game to their counterparts.

Therefore I’ll back Arsenal to win and under 4.5 goals at 13/10 (Coral). The Gunners have been surprisingly strong defensively in this competition and only conceded in one game. Arsenal will try and prevent the away goal as well so I’m not expecting them to go all out here. A one goal loss for Valencia wouldn’t be the end of the world for them either.

I’m also keen on a card heavy game. At this stage of the completion we usually see a lot of tactical fouls because there’s so much at stake. The angle of choice is to use Bet365’s BetBuilder and back each team to have over 1 card which is 13/10.

Arsenal pick up plenty of cards this season and Valencia too pick up over an average of two cards per game.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts – Arsenal to win and under 4.5 goals – 13/10 (Coral)
  • 2pts – Each team over 1 card – 13/10 (Bet365)