Bengals v Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 30/09/18

Bengals v Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

The in-form NFL specialist Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) who landed a brilliant 7/1 longshot last weekend previews the Cincinnati Bengals @ the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday and provides us with his best bets for the crucial Sunday showdown by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 30/09/18
  • Time: 18:00
  • Venue: Mercedes Benz Stadium, Atlanta
  • Channel: NFL Gamepass

It is going to be hard to pass up any Atlanta Falcons games this year from a betting point of view. Until the Falcons can prove they can shut opposing offenses down they are continuously going to be in shootouts. The Falcons defence was completely destroyed last week and the Panthers did well enough in Week 2 as well. The Cincinnati Bengals offense is not in the same league as the Saints but they have weapons to exploit the Falcons.

The great thing about this is that the Falcons offense is also fairly dynamic meaning they should be able to go toe-to-toe with teams this year. Their games are going to be a lot fun and likely contain a lot of touchdowns. Their games are also going to be extremely close and potentially come down to the last few minutes each time, which always makes for more enjoyable watching.

I am not sure this game climbs to the heights of last weeks because the Bengals defence is better than the Saints and their offense is not as good. Therefore, expect something more in the region of 60 points than 70.

Team News

The Atlanta Falcons are without both of their starting safeties and their starting middle linebacker. In addition, their best pass rusher, Takk McKinley, missed last week’s game but should be back this week. Their starting running back Devonta Freeman is unlikely to play in this game with a knee injury.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be without starting running back Joe Mixon as he recovers from knee surgery. Giovani Bernard is probably to play with a thigh injury. Star wide receiver A.J. Green struggled with injury last week but is expected to play. Vontaze Burfict is suspended.

Head To Head

  • The Bengals lead the head-to-head 8-5 all-time.
  • The Falcons have won the last three games played in Atlanta between the two teams.
  • The Bengals won the last game 24-10, played in Cincinnati in 2014.

Key Stats & Facts

  • These two teams rank highest in third-down conversions allowed to opposing offences.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have surrendered the most receptions to opposing running backs in the NFL for each of the last three years. They are projected to give up 144 this season.
  • Matt Ryan has the fifth highest passer rating in the league when targeting rookie Calvin Ridley.
  • The Falcons rank 27th in the NFL in getting pressure on the opposing quarterback.
  • The Falcons missed 17 tackles in Week 3, which was tied for the most.
  • Andy Dalton has a passer rating eight points higher when playing in domes than outdoors.
  • A.J. Green averages six yards per reception more when playing in a dome than when playing outside.
  • The Falcons are 1-9 in their last 10 home games against the AFC.

Betting Odds

  • Cincinnati Bengals 9/5
  • Atlanta Falcons 8/15

The Verdict

Unless the over/under is set at 60 it will be close to impossible to pass up the over, especially when the Falcons are at home. Generally the over is in the 50 point region this week so that is something I am definitely looking to take. Again I might look what odds I can get by pushing the over into the low 60s, but I am not going for 70-plus like I did last week.

In terms of the match and the spread the Falcons defense makes this way too hard to call. If you are being offered the Bengals getting 5.5 points with decent odds I would look to take it but anything less I would stay away from.

The majority of lines have not been released yet but look at the potential for Giovani Bernard for the over on total receptions, especially if the line is set somewhere around five.

Recommended Bets

  • Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 – 5/6 (Sportingbet)
  • Total points over 52.5 – 20/21 (Bet365 & Betfred)
  • Total points over 65.5 – 4/1 (Betfair)
  • Over 5.5 total touchdowns – 4/5 (BetVictor)