Chiefs v Rams Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 20/11/18

Kansas City Chiefs v Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Kansas City Chiefs v Los Angeles Rams and provides us with his best bets for Monday Night Football by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Kansas City Chiefs v Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 20/11/18
  • Time: 01:15
  • Venue: Los Angeles Coliseum
  • Channel: Sky Sports Action

This is all set to be a clash of titanic offenses. We have already seen two of these this year and neither have disappointed. The concern that this game might be a disappointment was due to the game being hosted in Mexico City where the pitch was less than ideal to say the least. Now that it has been moved back to Los Angeles there is very little to be concerned about. We saw a shootout in this stadium just last week and that was with the relatively mediocre Seattle Seahawks offense being one of the two teams.

Both of these teams come in at 9-1 with their only losses being in those other two clash of the offense battles. In those two games there was an average of 81.5 points and these two teams scored 40 and 35 points respectively in those games. These two teams have moved the ball at ease this season. The Rams rank 2nd in yards per game and have had success through the air (5th) and on the ground (2nd). The Chiefs rank 3rd in total yards but most of their yards have come through the air (4th) as they rank just 13th in the league on the ground.

The deciding factor in this game will likely be a turnover and in the two games lost by these teams they lost the turnover battle. Of the two the Chiefs defence is marginally better and rank fourth in the league in interceptions. However, playing on the road I am not sure how much of an advantage that will be against an offense this good. They forced just one fumble of Brady in the game against the Patriots and did not get a single turnover and that was a game on the road against a superb offense.

Team News

The Chiefs appear to be coming into the game fully healthy with Sammy Watkins expected to return.

The Rams have lost Cooper Kupp for the season with an ACL injury. He has been a major part of their offense as the third receiver but we have seen Josh Reynolds have success already this season stepping in for Kupp.

Head To Head

  • The Chiefs are 7-4 all-time against the Rams.
  • The Chiefs have won the lack six games between the two franchises but they have not faced off since 2014.
  • The last time the Rams won was in 1994 (16-0). They have since moved to St. Louis and then back to Los Angeles. They NEVER won as the St. Louis Rams but are 4-1 as the Los Angeles Rams.

Key Stats & Facts

  • The two teams rank 2nd (Chiefs) and 3rd (Rams) in points scored per game.
  • They also rank 17th (Rams) and 22nd (Chiefs) in points allowed per game.
  • Over the last three games the Rams have allowed an average of 34.33 points per game and have scored an average of 33.33.
  • The Chiefs have scored an average of 35.6 points per game in the last five weeks.

Betting Odds

  • Kansas City Chiefs 31/20
  • Los Angeles Rams 3/5

The Verdict

I cannot see a clear winner here. This feels similar to the game between the Patriots and Chiefs where the team who possess the ball last will win. The key to the game will be forcing field goals and any turnovers will be huge swings in momentum. Therefore, my temptation would be to lean to the Chiefs getting the points but it needs to be over three points for me to consider it. My new favourite thing to do is change the spread for two teams by six points and pair them together in an even odds bet. I would look to do that with the Chiefs here and get their spread up to somewhere in the region of 8 or 9 points. That is the only way I am betting on the spread here.

You cannot give me enough points in this game. The over/under is a record high of 63 and honestly I think that is light. I took the 63 the moment it was released to bet on and when the alternative points totals are available I will look to take it up to at least 70 and maybe even into the low 70s. I cannot see a way there are more than a few less points in this one than the Chiefs Patriots game (83) or the Saints Rams games (80).

On the same vein I am absolutely going all in on the over total touchdowns. They would have to set it at 8.5 for me to even think twice about it. That also opens up the possibility of multiple touchdown scorers in this game. There are three names from each team that interest me to get a double in this game, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt for the Chiefs and Brandon Cooks, Robert Woods and Todd Gurley for the Rams.

Finally, I also look at the absence of Cooper Kupp as an opportunity. Josh Reynolds has stepped up in the past and I absolutely think he can have a touchdown in this game. If the odds are good I would be tempted to also go for him on a double as he scored two touchdowns against the Packers when Kupp was absent.  The other two names to consider are the tight ends for the Rams in Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee. Both scored touchdowns in the last game against the Seahawks and I think one of them can in this game. My issue is I am just not sure which.

Recommended Bets

  • Total points over 63.5 – 10/11 (bet365)
  • Total touchdowns over 7.5 – 1/1 (bet 365)
  • Josh Reynolds anytime touchdown – 12/1 (bet365)
  • Robert Woods to score two touchdowns – 4/1 (Ladbrokes)
  • Tyreek Hill to score two touchdowns – 11/10 (Sky Bet)