Colts v Chiefs Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 12/01/19
Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s monster AFC South showdown by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- Season Record: +68.52 units on 90 selections
- Playoff Record: +15.18 units on 15 selections
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 12/01/19
- Time: 21:35
- Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
- Channel: Sky Sports USA
This has the makings of an interesting game in Kansas City. Not only do we have the potential for part one of a long running saga between two good young quarterbacks, but we also have the chance of some snow, rain and wind in this game.
The Colts have been on fire this year, winning 10 of their last 11 games and winning six of them by at least 14 points. Not many teams have looked better in the second half of the season. Not only have the offence started to get rolling but the defence has been extremely good too. They have not given up more than 28 points since Week 6. In those first six games they surrendered 30 points per game and in the last 11 they have surrendered just 15.5 points per game. However, this will be the best quarterback they have faced in that run by some distance.
The Chiefs have taken the league by storm this season, averaging 35.3 points per game and 400.6 total yards per game. They have been led by their super star at quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown 50 passing touchdowns this season. However, their defence has had its issues, especially against good offences. When facing opponents such as the Rams, Patriots and Steelers they have surrendered over 30 points. They also gave up over 30 points to the Oakland Raiders, although they kept them to just three points in Arrowhead.
As always, they have had moments where clock management has cost them games, namely the Patriots, Rams and Chargers games. Clock management in the playoffs has haunted the Chiefs and Andy Reid in the past and they will need to do it better this time, against a team who will not give up until triple-zeroes appear on the scoreboard.
I expect all the guys, Eric Ebron, T.Y. Hilton, Darius Leonard, Dontrelle Inman, who are probable for the Colts to suit up and they are the main players on the injury report in terms of affecting the game.
The Chiefs should be reasonably healthy after a week off. The name to watch the most is Eric Berry. If he is out this could be a monster day for the Colts.
Head To Head
- The Colts lead the all-time series 12-9.
- The Colts have won the last two games played in Arrowhead.
- The Colts came back from 38-10 down to win 45-44 the last time these two teams faced off in the playoffs.
Key Stats & Facts
- The Chiefs have lost their last six playoff games, dating back to 1993.
- The road team has won the last four Colts against Chiefs matchups.
- The Chiefs ranked joint first in the league in sacks, while the Colts ranked first in the league in preventing sacks.
- Patrick Mahomes has 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions when facing teams which predominantly run zone defences, which the Colts do.
- Both teams rank in the top 10 in the league for yards gained and points scored.
- Both teams rank in the top five in third down and red zone conversion rate.
- Indianapolis Colts 97/50
- Kansas City Chiefs 10/21
My expectation is that this will be a close game which will come right down to the fourth quarter. I feel like the Chiefs should come out on top, but I like getting the Colts +5.5 in a game I think could be decided by a field goal difference. I also like covering that bet in case the Chiefs win by a touchdown. Therefore, if you also take the Chiefs to win by 1-10 points you can maximise value (You can reduce those odds to 7/5 if you feel safer with 1-13-point win).
In terms of the points, weather is the big key. The main market is currently set at 56.5 which I think these teams can blow past n good weather. However, if there is snow and wind I worry it stunts the offences in this game. Therefore, on the morning of the game I will look to bet this as the over if the weather is good. In fact, in good weather I am pushing this line up to over 67.5 at 14/5.
In terms of anytime touchdown scorers I am going back to Chester Rogers at 7/1. He was heavily involved early last week, and it could easily have been him and not Inman who caught the touchdown. Eric Ebron dropped a second touchdown last week and I like him to have more red zone targets this week so at 7/1, the chance he catches multiple touchdowns is appealing to me.