Colts v Texans Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 05/01/19

Indianapolis Colts v Houston Texans Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans and provides us with his best bets for the big AFC South Wildcard weekend showdown analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 05/01/19
  • Time: 21:25
  • Venue: Reliant Stadium, Houston
  • Channel: Sky Sports Action

This is somewhat of an AFC South decider. The Texans did everything in their power to lose that division down the stretch and after having a three-game lead at one point they won it by a single game. Their poor end of season run included losing to the Colts in Reliant Stadium in fairly convincing fashion. The difference was only three points in the end but that was thanks to a late Houston touchdown bringing it back to that close.

The key here is going to be the run game for both sides. Whoever can control the clock and the time of possession should have a decent shot to win the game. The Colts are the team that can still win without a rushing game, they had just 50 rushing yards in the win a month ago. However, the Texans offensive line could be in serious problems if Lamar Miller cannot get the Colts defence on the back foot. The Colts pass rush is not brilliant but if they can pin their ears back they should be able to get to Deshaun Watson on a semi-regular basis.

Team News

The biggest question mark for the Texans is JJ Watt. His loss not only damages the pass rush, but he is one of the leaders of this team and his absence could be huge. An interesting potential return is Keke Coutee, who has looked good when on the field. If he is available, then he could make for a fantastic second weapon in this offence.

A lot of people questionable for the Colts one again this week. However, that is nothing they have not dealt with all week. If T.Y. Hilton is absent then I cannot see the Colts winning this game, but my expectation is per the last few weeks he will be absent.

Head To Head

  • The Colts lead the all-time series 26-8.
  • They split the games this season 1-1. With both road teams winning in those games.
  • The Texans have won four of the last seven games between the two.
  • The Texans have won just one of the last six games between the two teams.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Since their bye week the Texans are 4-0 when they rush for over 100 yards. Both losses have come when they have rushed for less than 100 yards (1-2).
  • The Colts are 7-1 this season when rushing for over 100 yards. In contrast, they are 3-5 when rushing for less.
  • The Colts lead the league in third down conversion percentage (48.6%).
  • The Texans rank in the bottom five in defensive red zone efficiency (29th – 70% conversion). They also rank 27th offensively (50%).
  • Deshaun Watson had a sack index rating 31% below league average. Andrew Luck leads the league at 24% above average.

Betting Odds

  • Indianapolis Colts 11/10
  • Houston Texans 17/20

The Verdict

My belief this whole season has been the Texans are over rated. Their schedule has been reasonably easy, their offensive line has a ton of holes and their run game is hit-or-miss. I have my concerns that the amount of must-win games the Colts have played in the last two months will have taken its toll. However, I think they are marginally the better team and therefore I will happily take them getting the points in this one. You could even talk me into taking the Colts straight up if the odds are right but at 11/10 I will take the extra point and a half at even.

I think this game ends somewhere in the 24-21 through to 27-24-point range. For that reason, I am staying away from the points total. However, I would lean towards the under on 5.5 total touchdowns as I think there will be plenty of field goals on both sides of this. Both teams trust their kickers and that is crucial in a game like this.

I cannot see much value on the anytime touchdown scorers, but Chester Rogers has seen 11 targets the last two games and has a touchdown. You can currently get him at 5/1 and I think that is solid value in this game. Vyncint Smith had five targets last week and had a shot at a ball in the end zone. He is available at 9/1 and makes for a potential selection. I might hold off on Smith if Coutee is active as he should see more snaps than Smith. I might even lean to Coutee at 7/2 with SkyBet.

Recommended Bets

  • Indianapolis Colts +1.5 – 1/1 (PaddyPower)
  • Under 5.5 total touchdowns – 8/11 (Betfed
  • Chester Rogers anytime touchdown scorer – 5/1 (Bet365)
  • Vyncint Smith anytime touchdown scorer – 9/1 (Betfred)