Cowboys v Rams Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 13/01/19
Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s divisional round showdown in LA by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- Season record: +68.52 units on 90 selections
- Playoff record: +15.18 units on 15 selections
Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 13/01/19
- Time: 01:15
- Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, California
- Channel: Sky Sports USA
This is the second of four fascinating games this weekend and perhaps the biggest clash of styles of the four. The Rams lean heavily on their offence and spread the ball around among their targets. Meanwhile, the Cowboys focus on a run dominated offence, which passes when it needs to rather than when it wants to.
The Rams started the season hot, culminating in their 54-51 mega-match against the Chiefs. However, after that they struggled to get back to looking as dominant. They still scored 30 or more points three times, but the offence seemed to lack explosiveness down the stretch. Some of the reason is turnovers, after turning the ball over nine times in 11 weeks, they turned it over 10 times in the four weeks following their bye. Their defence has also looked vulnerable at times this season when facing offences with any level of quality.
As for Dallas they have been led by their offence this season, which ranked sixth and seventh in points and yards surrendered this season. They ranked top ten in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns and rushing yards per attempt this season. They also ranked in the top half of the league when it comes to passing yardage and passing touchdown statistics. Offensively they struggled somewhat this season, especially passing the ball. However, we have seen them show that when they need to they can pass the ball on opponents. If Dak Prescott can get time in this pocket, we have seen the Rams look vulnerable on the back end of their defence.
Some interesting injuries on the Cowboys side. David Irving being out is huge and he is a big part of that defensive line, but Tyrone Crawford looks like he should play and that will be a relief. On the offensive side there are question marks around Blake Jarwin and Cole Beasley who both have ankle sprains. My lean here is that Jarwin misses the game but Beasley plays. There are also question marks surrounding Zack Martin and Tyron Smith at tackle. That would make this Cowboys passing attack very vulnerable to the pass rush if they were out.
The Rams look like they are going to have Todd Gurley and Andrew Whitworth available, which will be a huge relief. There are not a huge amount of game changers listed as questionable but they are all on the defensive side of the ball so depth might be an issue if this is a physical game.
Head To Head
- The Cowboys and Rams have met eight times before in the playoffs. The record stands at 4-4, but they have not faced each other in the playoffs since 1985.
Key Stats & Facts
- All three of the Rams losses this season came against NFC playoff teams (Saints, Bears, Eagles). They were 4-3 in all against playoff teams.
- The Rams ranked in the top five in average points, passing yards and rushing yards. The previous two times they did that they made the Super Bowl.
- The Rams are 8-0 this season when Todd Gurley rushes for 70 or more yards, and 3-3 when he rushes for less.
- Dallas has lost seven straight road playoff games, with their last win coming in 1992. They have also lost all their last five games in the divisional round.
- NFC playoff teams are 7-1 at home in the divisional round since 2014. Only a Green Bay win in Dallas in 2016 stopped that being 8-0.
- Dallas Cowboys 20/7
- Los Angeles Rams 1/3
At those odds I really want to back the Cowboys to win this game, but I struggle to back Jason Garrett on the road. However, there is talk there will be a lot of Cowboys fans in the stands, and for that reason I am going to bank on this being a close game and take the Cowboys getting the points. The reason for that is the Rams have played two close games against the run dominant Seahawks this season, and I think Ezekiel Elliott can have a big day and keep the Cowboys offence on the field.
Again, I like the idea of also going for the Rams winning margin as well. You can get the Rams to win by 1-13 points at 7/5 with Betfair or 15/8 with PaddyPower if you think it stays under a 10-point difference.
In terms of total points, I think I want to take the under in a game that should be run dominated, but the Seahawk/Rams games were run dominated and they saw over 60 points. If you are desperate to bet the total, then under is my lean.
In terms of anytime touchdown scorers an opportunity has opened through injury. Jarwin is questionable for this game and Dalton Schultz is the backup in that situation. You can currently get Schultz at 14/1 to score a touchdown in a couple of places.
Finally, Elliott has rushed for over 125 yards in each of his first two playoff games, and the Rams have had issues against good running games this season. Therefore, I am taking Elliott to have over 94.5 rushing yards in this game.