England v South Africa Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 03/11/18
Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews England vs South Africa and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s first Autumn International by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
England v South Africa Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 03/11/18
- Time: 15:00
- Venue: Twickenham
England enter the Autumn Internationals with a depleted and inexperienced side, yet still needing to pick up wins to end a disappointing 2018.
England suffered their longest losing-streak this year, after going 6 defeats in a row through the Six Nations and summer series against South Africa. Eddie Jones now enters a World Cup year with a lot of pressure on his shoulders and needs to take some victories into the new year.
As for the visitors, they are a team who are considered to be turning things around after a few years of average performances. They had a successful Rugby Championship this year, finishing as runners-up to All Blacks, after beating the world champions in New Zealand for the first time in 10 years along side wins over Argentina and Australia.
Their side is packed full of quality despite the English based players, Faf De Klerk and Willie Le Roux, being unavailable. The pack bring huge amounts of physicality and will be looking to dominate in that area, yet still having the class in the backs to cause England problems.
The back division in somewhere where England will feel they can earn the victory. With Farrell and Slade they have the playmakers to allow the likes of Jonny May and Jack Nowell to exploit space out wide.
South Africa have enjoyed the better of this fixture in recent years, winning 13 of the last 16, including winning the summer series 2-1. SA have won five of the last six matches on England soil, but the home side do have strong home form in general.
England have not lost an Autumn International test since 2014 and have lost just one of their last 16 matches at Twickenham. This game will provide a real test for Eddie Jones men, especially given all the injury problems and the inexperience within the squad. South Africa have plenty of power and skill, mixed nicely with youth and experienced players and it is sure to be a close game either way.
Looking at the betting for this game, England just about take the favourite handle at 8/11, with South Africa at around 7/5. In the summer series, the games averaged just over 50 points and I think this game will be another entertaining one, with plenty riding on it, especially for England. The question will be whether the English pack can handle the brute force of the South African forwards and that is most likely where the game will be won or lost.
England Starting 15: 15-Daly, 14-Nowell, 13-Slade, 12-Te’o, 11-May, 10-Farrell, 9-Youngs; 1-Hepburn, 2-Hartley, 3-Sinckler, 4-Itoje, 5-Kruis, 6-Shields, 7-Curry, 8-Wilson
South Africa Starting 15: 15-Willemse, 14-Nkosi, 13-Kriel, 12-De Allande, 11-Dyantyi, 10-Pollard, 9-Van Zyl; 1-Kitshoff, 2-Marx, 3-Malherbe, 4-Etzebeth, 5-PS Du Toit, 6-Kolisi, 7-Vermeulen, 8-Whiteley
Head To Head
- South Africa have won 13 of the last 16 tests against England.
- England lost the summer series in South Africa 2-1.
- England won the last test, beating SA in the final match of the summer series, ending a five-match winless run against them.
Key Stats & Facts
- England have won just three of their 9 test matches this year.
- South Africa have won just two of their last five test matches but did beat New Zealand and Australia in that period.
- Of the last 16 test matches at Twickenham, England have lost just once, to Ireland, in this year’s Six Nations.
- England have not lost an Autumn International since 2014, a run spanning over 9 test matches.
- South Africa have won five of the last 6 matches at Twickenham against England.
- England – 2/7
- Draw – 23/4
- South Africa – 14/1
This is a massive game for Eddie Jones and England, given their poor form this year. In world cup year, these autumn tests provide the chance to start building momentum and finding out which players are going to be push for the starting positions come next October.
South Africa have beaten the All Blacks this year, showing their ability, but also were beaten by Argentina, which shows they can sometimes blow hot and cold.
Given the prices, I would probably stay clear of the winners market, as I think both sides are too short.
However, they try-scorer market is where I would be going, and Jonny May stands out here at 7/5 anytime. May scored in each of the three games against SA in the summer and has started this season with five tries in his opening six games for Leicester Tigers in the league.
Aphiwe Dyantyi is the South African winger in form, with five tries in his last six tests and given this looks set to be a game full of tries, I think he is good value at 15/8.