Falcons v Browns Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 11/11/18

Falcons v Browns Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Atlanta Falcons v Cleveland Browns and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s NFL showdown by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Atlanta Falcons v Cleveland Browns Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 11/11/18
  • Time: 18:00
  • Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, Ohio
  • Channel: NFL Gamepass

This game has the potential to be the battle of the turnover this week. The Atlanta Falcons rank first in the NFL for fewest turnovers with just five in their eight games. On the other side the Cleveland Browns rank second in turnovers forced with 23 takeaways. The way to win games on the road is to not make mistakes and that has never been more apparent than in this week’s matchup.

Prior to last week the Falcons had struggled on the road this season but they broke out in a big way with 491 total yards (337 passing, 154 rushing) and 38 points. Coming into that game the Redskins defense was considered one of the best in the league and the Falcons barely broke stride all game. It was also one of the Falcons best defensive performances of the season, limiting the Redskins to 366 total yards, including just 87 on the ground. The Falcons defense is rounding into shape nicely since losing a lot of starters early. In addition, they have added Bruce Irvin for this game and he could have a big impact as a pass rusher.

The Browns had a promising start to the season but four overtime games and no bye week yet has seemed to suck a lot of the life out of them. They have lost their last four games and three of the four losses have been by double digits. In those last four games their opponents have scored an average of 33.5 points compared to their average points scored of 19. They do rank top-10 in rushing yards, touchdowns and yards/attempt so they should be able to move the ball. However, they also rank in the bottom-10 in passing yards, touchdowns and yards/attempt. The one point of optimism is that the Falcons have allowed plenty of receptions this season to running backs and they have a very good passing downs back in Duke Johnson Jr.

Team News

Denzel Ward (corner) missed practice on Wednesday and his absence would be a big blow when facing the receiving quality that Atlanta has. Their starting centre JC Tretter and starting line backer Jamie Collins could also miss the game. Both would be big losses on either side of the ball.

For the Falcons they will be buoyed by the appearance of Deion Jones at practie, even though he is not eligible to play this week. Of the players who can play the biggest issue is Mohamed Sanu who missed practice Wednesday. He has been struggling for a few weeks now and appears to miss at least one practice a week as they attempt to rest him for the weekend.

Head To Head

  • The Browns are 11-3 all-time against the Falcons.
  • The Falcons won the last game hosted in Cleveland 20-10 in 2010.
  • However, the Browns won 26-20 in the last matchup between the two, which was played in Atlanta.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Atlanta are 3-0 in their last three games since starting the season 1-4.
  • Cleveland are 0-4 in their last four games since starting the season 2-2-1.
  • The Cleveland Browns have played over time in 4/9 games and are yet to have a bye week.
  • Three of the Browns last four losses have been by at least 15 points.
  • Matt Ryan has thrown for 350 yards and four touchdowns four times in his career, two of them have been this season.
  • Baker Mayfield has completed over 60% of his passes each of the last three weeks, having been below that in all of his previous three starts this season.

Betting Odds

  • Atlanta Falcons 1/2 (Betfair)
  • Cleveland Browns 2/1 (Ladbrokes)

The Verdict

Three or four weeks ago I would have had this game a lot closer but since then the Falcons are charging and the Browns are flailing. Usually the sacking of a head coach gives the team a boost but they could not make a dent on the Chiefs last week which is a worrying sign. Despite being on the road and the troubles that has brought in the past I think the Falcons are by far the better team. Even with the slight advantage being at home should give the Browns I think the Falcons should be able to cover the four points. If the line moves I do not think I would take the Falcons if they were more than six point favourites. The Browns have been sluggish to start the game most of the season and I do not think that ends this week. Therefore, I also like a bet on the Falcons to lead at half time and at the end of the game.

I think the Browns can get over the 20 point mark against this Falcons defense and I also think the Falcons can clear the 30 point mark. Therefore, I am going to look to take the over on the total points scored at 50.5 and the over on total touchdowns at 5.5.

I also like both of the receiving backs in this game to find the end zone so bets on Duke Johnson and Tevin Coleman to score feel like good bets, either as singles or as part of bigger accumulators. The value on Johnson is better so he would be my first choice.

Recommended Bets

  • Atlanta Falcons -4 – 19/20 (Betfair)
  • Total Points over 50.5 – 19/20 (Betfair)
  • 1st half result/2nd half result: Atlanta/Atlanta – 9/5 (William Hill)
  • Total touchdowns over 5.5 – 4/5 (Bet365)
  • Anytime TD Scorer: Duke Johnson – 17/10 (PaddyPower)
  • Anytime TD Scorer: Tevin Coleman – 8/13 (PaddyPower)