Falcons v Buccaneers Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 30/12/18

Falcons v Buccaneers Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s NFC South clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 30/12/18
  • Time: 18:00
  • Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay
  • Channel: NFL Gamepass

This is a weird game as it generally has nothing riding on it from a playoffs point of view but at the same time it has a lot riding on it. The Buccaneers have a huge decision to make this offseason about Jameis Winston, and this game will serve yet another audition for him. For the Falcons there is less to play for but the pride of winning four divisional games in a bad year will be a big motivator. Dan Quinn should be safe in his job, but this would be a big plus for him of he wins.

The Buccaneers have had a weird season. They were scoring points for fun early in the year but could not defend. They cycled between their quarterbacks with seemingly little reasoning at times. Then they have reinvented themselves as a card close to chest team who have played good defence recently. I expect another big performance given the number of careers in flux this week.

The Falcons season has just been ravaged by injury on both side of the ball. Defensively they were decimated early and then the offensive line just slowly crumbled away. However, the last couple of weeks they have tightened up and have done a good job. Offensively they are not slinging it around seemingly at will and defensively they seem to be getting pressure and forcing mistakes.

Team News

Tevin Coleman looks likely to be out this weeks, opening opportunities for Brian Hill. Julio Jones has been questionable, but I expect him to play, and potentially feature heavily.

I am not expecting DeSean Jackson for the Buccaneers and Carl Nassib is questionable. Nassib is a loss but neither player is critical.

Head To Head

  • Falcons lead 26-24 all-time.
  • The falcons have won the last four meetings between the teams and three of the last four played in Tampa.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Weirdly the Buccaneers are 4-1 when scoring between 24 and 27 points. When they score less they are 0-5 and when they score more 1-4.
  • After forcing 11 turnovers in the first 13 games the Falcons have forced seven turnovers in the last two games.
  • The Falcons are 4-1 when rushing for over 100 yards. When they rush for less they are 2-8.
  • Tampa Bay have thrown the most interceptions this year, with 25. However, in the last four weeks they have only turned the ball over a total of five times.

Betting Odds

  • Atlanta Falcons 11/12
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21/20

The Verdict

Despite the way they have played this season I think that the Falcons are the better team. I’d happily take them either on the moneyline or giving up 1-1.5 points to try and push the odds to even. I can see a scenario where the Buccaneers win but I just think the Falcons have a point to prove this week.

Both defences are much improved from earlier this season and therefore I am absolutely going under on the total in this game at 51.5.

Finally Cameron Brate and Winston have a pretty good connection so I like the value on Brate as an anytime touchdown scorer.

Recommended Bets

  • Falcons -1.5 – 1/1 (Bet365)
  • Total points under 51.5 – 99/100 (Marathon Bet)
  • Cameron Brate anytime touchdown – 15/8 (SkyBet)