Lazio v Roma Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 02/03/19
Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Lazio v Roma and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s Serie A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: -1.78pts
Lazio v Roma Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 02/03/19
- Time: 19:30
- Venue: Stadio Olimpico
Lazio face Roma in the Derby Della Capitale this weekend, with both sides Champions League hopes on the line.
The Biancocolesti are now seven points adrift of 4th placed Milan, after their game at the weekend against Udinese was suspended and Roma and the Rossonerri both picked up three points. Lazio now need to win to bridge that gap and apply some pressure on their city rivals.
As for the ‘away’ side, the Giallorossi are in good form across all competitions at the moment, with four wins from their last five and losing just one of their last 12 Serie A matches. Roma are the third highest scorers in the league with 49 and they have managed two or more goals in seven of their last eight league games.
Eusebio Di Francesco’s men are a point behind Milan in fourth, however and it would be a big blow if that gap was to be extended this weekend. Milan will most likely have extended that gap to four points by kick-off, as the Rossoneri host Sassuolo a couple of house before the Derby. The momentum is with the Giallorossi though and they will be confident of beating this below par Lazio side.
Simone Inzaghi’s men have struggled since the winter break, winning just three of their 10 matches in all competitions and being dumped out of the Europa League by Sevilla. Last weekend’s game against Udinese was postponed due to torrential rain in the capital but Lazio did play on Tuesday night, in their Coppa Italia semi-final first leg with Milan, in which they drew 0-0. Their recent struggles in-front of goal continued there, as they had numerous chances to score, but could not make it count.
In general, Inzaghi’s men have found it difficult to punish sides. They have managed just 10 goals in their 10 games since the winter break and four of those came against Serie C side, Novara. Injuries are not helping their cause of late and it looks as though the changes are affecting their rhythm. Immobile has just one league goal since December and the loss of Luis Alberto seems to have disrupted his performance also. When Immobile is not on form, in general, neither are Lazio.
Looking a bit more closely at this fixture, Roma have the upper hand in recent years. Roma have won the Derby Della Capitale on three of the last five occasions and Lazio have won the derby just six times in the last 23 matches. In the last six years, Lazio have managed just three wins against their rivals and only once in the last 10 matches has the game ended in a draw.
Lazio are having a tough time with injuries, as the likes of Marco Parolo, Wallace, Valon Berisha, Jordan Lukaku and Luiz Felipe. But Luis Alberto looks set to make a return to the side after having a spell out with an injury.
As for Roma, they are without Patrik Schick for the derby as well as young defender, William Bianda.
Potential Lazio Starting XI: Strakosha; Patric, Acerbi, Radu; Marusic, Leiva, Milinkovic, Lulic; Luis Alberto; Correa, Immobile
Potential Roma Starting XI: Olsen; Florenzi, Fazio, Manolas, Kolarov; Cristante, De Rossi; Zaniolo, Pellegrini, El Shaarawy; Dzeko
The overall H2H reads 23 Roma wins, 16 draws and 16 Lazio wins. Lazio have not beaten Roma in the league since April 2017 and Roma have won six of the last eight matches against their city rivals in the Serie A.
Key Stats & Facts
- Of the last 15 matches between these two sides, only on five occasions has the ‘away’ side won.
- Roma have won their last four matches in all competitions and have lost just once in 2019 so far. (P9 W6 D2 L1)
- Roma have scored two or more in seven of their last nine games in all competitions and are undefeated in the league this calendar year.
- Lazio have won just three of their 10 games since the turn of the year and have lost three of their five league games since the winter break.
- Lazio have scored just five goals in their five league games since the winter break and have failed to score more than the solitary goal in any of them.
- Lazio – 6/4
- Draw – 5/2
- Roma – 2/1
The stakes are pretty high for this derby given that Lazio can ill afford to fall further behind the top four if they are to make the Champions League next season. They sit seven points behind Milan, whereas Roma are just the point behind, so the advantage is with them heading into this one.
Looking at the game itself and the prices on offer, I really like the 2/1 on Roma. They have won four of their last five games in all competitions, unbeaten in the league in 2019 and have lost just once in their last 12 league games (P12 W7 D4 L1). Since the winter break, they have scored two or more goals in five of their six league games and have scored three goals in three of those games.
Add Roma’s form to the poor form of Lazio, who have won just three games in their 10 since the winter break and have lost three of their last five league games, scoring just five goals, you start to build a good case for Roma. They have also dominated the Derby Della Capitale in recent years, winning seven of the last 10 and losing just once in the league to Lazio in the last 11 Serie A meetings.
The Giallorossi are in really good form and scoring plenty of goals, so the 2/1 on them looks like a very good price here, as well as the fact they are actually playing at home (Roma and Lazio groundshare if you didn’t know).