Patriots @ Chiefs Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 20/01/19

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s AFC Championship game by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • Season Record: +59.07pts on 106 selections
  • Playoff Record: +5.73pts on 31 selections

New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 20/01/19
  • Time: 23:40
  • Venue: Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City
  • Channel: Sky Sports USA (Maybe also Main Event)

This matchup was stunning when the two sides met back in Week 6 in Foxborough. In total 83 points were scored, and it took a late field goal for the Patriots to come out on top 43-40. Since then both teams have had interesting roads to the playoffs, but in the end, we get the AFC matchup that many envisaged and wished for after Week 6.

The Chiefs blew me, and many others, away with their dominating performance against the Colts last week. I expected a close, and high-scoring game, but the Chiefs defensive line manhandled the Colts offence and left this game looking ugly early. The Chiefs defence has been a weakness this season and they will need another great performance like last week if they are to contain the Patriots. Offensively the Chiefs slowed a little in the second half of the season, but they have essentially continued to roll along comfortably in 2018. It would not shock me if they score another 40 points on Sunday.

The Patriots offence has quietly gone about its business this season. They rank right around the top-10 in most offensive statistics, even if at times it has not looked overly pretty. Last week they exploded out of the gate and ran the Chargers into the ground early. Expect them to have another great offensive plan this week. Defensively they will need yet another stroke of genius from Belichick if they are to shut down the Chiefs. Expect to see some interesting alignments and different concepts to try and confuse the Chiefs young quarterback.

Team News

Both teams come into this game healthy. The biggest question mark this season has been around Chiefs safety Eric Berry, but he looks likely to be healthy and active in this game.

Head To Head

  • The Kansas City Chiefs are 18-14-3 all-time against the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 1-5 all-time at Arrowhead stadium, including a 41-14 loss in 2014.
  • New England won the previous meeting between the two teams 43-40 in Week 6 this season.

Key Stats & Facts

  • The Patriots are 3-5 on the road this season, and 3-4 on the road in the postseason with Bill Belichick as coach. They have lost their last 3 road playoff games and have not won since the Divisional round in 2006.
  • This is the second time the Chiefs have made the AFC Championship game since the merger. They lost that game 30-13 in Buffalo in 1993.
  • The Chiefs have never won back-to-back playoff games, and last week was only their third playoff win (1991 & 1993).
  • Tom Brady has at least 280 passing yards in 10 straight postseason games. Brady averages 368.8 passing yards in his last four playoff games, with nine touchdowns and zero interceptions.
  • Both teams scored four rushing touchdowns last week.

Betting Odds

  • New England Patriots 6/4
  • Kansas City Chiefs 19/29

The Verdict

The Patriots come into this game 3-5 on the road this season and for me that is a major factor. I think the Chiefs come away with this one and by 3-5 points. However, rather than take the spread, I am going to be the Chiefs to win by 1-10 points, because I would be stunned if the Patriots lose this game by more than 10.

With the temperature and wind looking to be extremely mild compared to earlier predictions I expect this to be a high scoring game. I am not going to go crazy with the predictions, as I still think the Patriots look to grind it out on offence and that will limit the scoring somewhat. However, I expect both teams to score somewhere around the 30-point region, and I will take the over on 56.5 total points in the game.

Looking at the value for anytime touchdown scorers and again I am going to look the way of the big James Develin. I think the Patriots are going to look to pound the ball on the ground in this game, and Develin could find himself utilized near the goal line. While we are down at the Chiefs goal line it is worth considering Tom Brady at 20/1 in a couple of places too. There is nothing for Brady to save himself for anymore and he had a nice scramble for a touchdown the last time these teams met.

I am also going to jump on James White to have over 53.5 receiving yards at 10/11 with a couple of places. White was a huge part of the Patriots passing offence last week and I think they will end up chasing the game at some point this week.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt – Chiefs winning margin 1-10 – 9/5 (PaddyPower)
  • 1pt – Total points over 56.5 – 1/1 (Bet365)
  • 1pt – Anytime touchdown scorer: James Develin – 12/1 (PaddyPower)
  • 1pt – Anytime touchdown scorer: Tom Brady – 20/1 (SkyBet)
  • 1pt – James White over 56.5 receiving yards – 10/11 (Betfair/PaddyPower)