Sam Langston (@Samlan98) previews Peru v Brazil and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s Copa América Group A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: -1.23pts

Peru v Brazil Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 20/06/2019
  • Time: 20:00
  • Venue: Arena Corinthians
  • Channel: Premier Sports

All the pressure is on Tite and Brazil as they entertain Peru in their final group game. Two uninspiring displays versus Bolivia and Venezuela have resulted in the Copa favourites being booed on both occasions, so although a point should see them progress as Group A winners, only a win will be demanded by Saturday’s São Paulo crowd.

Tite’s troops followed up their lacklustre Matchday 1 performance by labouring to a 0-0 draw against La Vinotinto in the early hours of Wednesday. Granted, the Seleção had three goals disallowed and dictated 69% of the ball, but they were once again far too predictable in possession.

Poor productivity in the final third isn’t uncharted for Tite’s side, who often have to rely on their outstanding individual quality to win games. The conservative style of the Brazil boss means that clear-cut chances can be at a premium, so his side falters when the Samba stars don’t turn up; something that was made evident in midweek.

Brazil fired in 15 shots to their opponents’ six but only scraped the xG count 0.69-0.52. Strikingly, just one of these 15 attempts hit the target, which demonstrates their lack of effectiveness with the ball.

The tournament hosts now take on a Peru side who kick-started their Copa campaign with a well-deserved 3-1 victory over Bolivia. Profligate finishing had previously seen Los Incas record a goalless draw with Venezuela in their opening fixture, so it was vital in their quest to reach the knockout stages that they secured three points at the expense of the Group A minnows.

Team News

With no fresh injury concerns, Peru could be unchanged from their win against Bolivia.

Tite has a tendency to be stubborn in his approach and may persist with a similar starting line-up here. Gabriel Jesus for Roberto Firmino might be the only swap.

Potential Peru Starting XI: Gallese, Advíncula, Zambrano, Trauco, Abram, Tapia, Yotún, Polo, Farfán, Cueva, Guerrero.

Potential Brazil Starting XI: Alisson, Alves, Silva, Marquinhos, Filipe Luís, Arthur, Casemiro, Coutinho, Neres, Richarlison, Jesus.

Head To Head

  • Peru have beaten Brazil as recently as 2016. Three years ago, a disastrous 1-0 loss to Los Incas eliminated the Seleção from the Copa América group stage, which ultimately resulted in Dunga’s sacking. Since then, the Samba Boys won the only meeting 2-0 away in 2018 World Cup qualifying.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Peru have W15-D10-L10 in competitive games under Ricardo Gareca.
  • Gareca’s group have lost just four of 15 major tournament fixtures, with each of these defeats coming by a single goal. Seven of these 15 were played against either: France, Denmark, Colombia, Brazil, or Chile, all of whom have international pedigree.

Betting Odds

  • Peru – 19/2
  • Draw – 4/1
  • Brazil – 2/5

The Verdict

There’s been a lot of support for Peru in the last 48 hours but I still think any value lies with Los Incas on the Asian Handicap.

Paulo Guerrero’s equalizer on the stroke of half-time changed the complexion of the game at the Maracanã on Tuesday. Ricardo Gareca’s side rushed to respond after Marcelo Martins’ penalty had put them behind on 28 minutes, so the gaffer instructed his players to be more patient at half-time and this approach yielded reward after the interval.

The Peruvians were excellent in the second-half; the link-up between the front four of Andy Polo, Jefferson Farfán, Christian Cueva, and Guerrero was much crisper following Gareca’s pep-talk.

Skipper Guerrero is Peru’s outlet ball and he’ll play a key role in Saturday’s showdown. If the veteran forward can use his physicality to the effect that Salomón Rondón did for Venezuela, and bring Polo and Farfán into play, the duo’s quickness can cause real damage on the break, as Brazil’s ageing back-line do lack some pace. This could be the game where they concede a competitive goal at home for the first time in just under three years.

With four points on the board, Tite’s side have now virtually guaranteed a quarter-final berth alongside Peru. However, Seleção supporters are becoming increasingly frustrated with the Brazil boss, as his pragmatism is reflecting in performances on the pitch. Particularly, this tournament so far has highlighted how they lack productivity in the final third without the talismanic Neymar.

The Samba Boys may get some forward joy against Peru, who aren’t as structurally sound as Venezuela, but I don’t expect this to be a walkover by any means. This would be the first time in 15 major tournament games that Gareca’s Peru have lost by a two-goal margin or more, so I’m willing to punt on Black Type’s 79/100 that Los Incas can cover the +1.5 line.

This market has already reacted significantly to Brazil’s failure to break down Venezuela but the present price still looks quite generous. I still expect some activity on Peru’s price here, so the current offering looks decent value.

Recommended Bets

  • 0.5pts – Peru +1.5 Asian Handicap – 79/100 (Black Type)