Pittsburgh Steelers v Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • 5th October 2018
Pittsburgh Steelers v Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s NFL showdown by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 07/10/18
  • Time: 18:00
  • Venue: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
  • Channel: NFL Gamepass

This is a matchup between two offenses with the ability to score a lot of points and two defenses with the ability to give up a lot of points. That should make for an extremely interesting game this week in Pittsburgh. The Falcons defense has been blighted by injuries and they are now a shell of the defense that started the season. As for the Steelers, well their defense is underperforming and looks extremely slow.

Both of these teams have multiple weapons on the offensive side of the ball. The Falcons have added rookie Calvin Ridley to the combination of Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu to make a fearsome threesome. The Steelers rely more on their two man receiving core of Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster but they have their own rookie in James Washington who could be primed for a break out this week. Both offenses have solid tight end options and both have running backs who could do real damage when given the chance.

With this game being outside I do think Matt Ryan and the Falcons have a little more difficulty moving the ball than they have the last three weeks. However, this is also the second worst of the four defenses they have faced so that should cancel that out somewhat. I expect the Falcons to be a little slow out of the gate as they adjust to the conditions in Pittsburgh but with all their weapons it is hard to see them not scoring 30-points once again.

Team News

The Steelers are still missing star running back Le’Veon Bell who has yet to report to the team over a contract dispute. The rest of their team appears fairly healthy with safety Morgan Burnett and linebacker Vince Williams the biggest concerns.

The Falcons are without starting safeties Ricardo Allen and Keanu Neal as well as starting line backer Deion Jones. This week they have question marks over defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, pass rushers Vic Beasley and Derrick Shelby and line back Foyesade Oluokun. Their offensive weapons of Tevin Coleman, Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu are expected to be healthy and they should get running back Devonta Freeman back from a knee injury after missing three weeks.

Head To Head

  • Pittsburgh are 13-2 all-time against the Falcons with one tie.
  • The Steelers have won the last two matches in 2010 and 2014.

Key Stats & Facts

  • The Falcons have the third highest scoring offense in the NFL this season, averaging 29 points per game.
  • The Steelers rank 26th in scoring defense, allowing an average of 29 points per game.
  • The first 386 teams who scored 37 or more points and did not turn the ball over had never lost a game. Both of these teams have lost games this season despite achieving those numbers. The Falcons have done it twice.
  • In the last three games the Falcons defense has given up an average of 34.66 points per game.

Betting Odds

  • Atlanta Falcons 31/20 (Bet365)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers 3/5 (Unibet)

The Verdict

I think this is a really close game that comes right down to the final possession once again. Both of these teams are currently offensively slanted and their defenses are really struggling. I would not like to call the winner but I do not think there will be much more than a field goal in it. Therefore, taking the Falcons +3.5 feels like a solid bet.

Once again I think there are going to be a ton of points scored and the bookies agree. Anytime a line is set this close to 60 it is hard to find value. However, I think both teams get into the 30s this week so I would be willing to go over on the 58.5 points mark. Pushing that total into the 60s does not have great value this week. Bet365 are offering over 63 at 31/20 if you are feeling brave.

The safest bet is to back the total touchdowns over 6.5 with BetVictor. These are pretty nice odds compared to what odds were being offered by Sportingbet earlier in the week so I would jump on the over 6.5 before money starts to pile in on it Sunday.

Recommended Bets

  • Total points over 58.5 – 1/1 (Bet365)
  • Atlanta Falcons +3.5 – 10/11 (Coral)
  • Total Touchdowns over 6.5 – 20/21 (BetVictor)