Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 29/09/18

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Betting Preview, Odds & Tips 29th September

Mikey Patterson (@ThePattBlogs) previews Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid and provides us with his best bets for Saturdays Madrid derby in La Liga by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 29/09/2018
  • Time: 19:45
  • Venue: Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid
  • Channel: Eleven Sports

The highlight in La Liga this weekend takes place in Madrid, as Real welcome their across town rivals Atletico to the Bernabeu on Saturday evening for El Derbi Madrileno. Both teams come into this highly anticipated match on the back of very different results in the league during the week, with Real suffering a 3-0 defeat away at Sevilla on Wednesday, while Atletico entertained Huesca, running out 3-0 winners themselves on Tuesday.

The defeat to Sevilla is the first of the current campaign for new boss Julen Lopetegui, and meant they were unable to capitalise on a similar slip-up from Barcelona, as they were beaten by two quick fire goals in the second half away to Leganes, eventually losing 2-1. Both results mean that Atletico now sit just 2 points behind their La Liga rivals, and will fancy their chances having seem a slumber performance from Real on Wednesday.

Given the two shock results for both of the top pair in La Liga on Wednesday evening, and their uninspiring efforts away from home, expect Real to make every attempt to right their midweek wrong in front of their home fans. However, given some of the issues they are currently facing regarding squad selection due to injuries, it could very well prove to be a perfect time for Simeone and his men to put Real to the sword, and take a slight advantage over Los Blancos in the La Liga table by coming away with all 3 points.

Team News

It is Real who have some concerns leading into this one with their bitter rivals. Playmaker Isco missed the trip to Sevilla on Wednesday due to undergoing treatment for acute appendicitis on the Tuesday. He joined right back Dani Carvajal on the treatment table, who has been missing since their opening Champions League against Roma. Missing these two key players was proving a headache enough for the former Spain boss, but with 10 minutes to go in Sevilla left back Marcelo hobbled off, with his manager confirming after the game that he may well have torn his calf, however he could not confirm this until he had undergone the relevant medical tests.

Simeone does have one worry ahead of this pivotal game, with commanding centre back Jose Gimenez being substituted late on in the first half against Huesca with what has been described as “muscular discomfort” by the club. Despite this however, Simeone is reported to be confident that the Uruguayan will feature as he and Atletico look to continue their recent turn of form.

An interesting side story to the match is that of whether Courtois will start in goal against what were once his former employers. The former Chelsea stopper made the move back to Madrid with Real in the summer, having spent 3 years on loan at Atletico before being recalled by Chelsea. He enjoyed plenty of success during his time at Atletico, helping them back to the summit of Spanish football in 2014, and picking up the Ricardo Zamora trophy for Best Goalkeeper along the way.

Potential Real Madrid Starting XI: Courtois, Hernandez, Ramos, Varane, Nacho, Casemiro, Modric, Kroos, Asensio, Benzema, Bale

Potential Atletico Madrid Starting XI: Oblak, Lucas, Gimenez, Godin, Felipe Luis, Koke, Saul, Thomas, Lemar, Costa, Griezmann

Head To Head

  • Atletico Madrid have not lost at the Bernabeu in La Liga in their last 5 games, winning 3 and drawing 2.
  • This same fixture last season resulted in a 1-1 draw.
  • Overall, at the Santiago Bernabeu, Real Madrid have ran out victorious 52 times in the 81 league games played there since 1928-29.
  • Atletico have only returned home with the points on 15 occasions in their visits to the Bernabeu on League duty, with 3 of those wins having come in the past 5 seasons.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Real have only lost once thus far this season in La Liga, where as Atletico are having to claw back at their nearest rivals following a rough start, losing twice in the league already.
  • Karim Benzema currently has 4 La Liga goals to his name, twice as many as danger man Antoine Grizemann currently has for Atletico.
  • These two have drawn their last 3 consecutive head to head games in La Liga, with two out of those 3 games seeing both teams score.

Betting Odds

  • Real Madrid 2.05
  • Draw 3.40
  • Atletico Madrid 3.50

The Verdict

Based on their latest results, and given some of the factors that may affect the starting elevens for both sides, I can see this one going down to a draw, possibly even edging towards Atletico given they have a good current run, as well as a good recent history of coming away with something against their rivals.

I would very much fancy both teams to score considering the way goals have flown in between both sides this season, and even more so having seen Real concede 3 in their recent trip to Sevilla. I would also be looking at a cheeky punt on Atletico to win and BTTS/over 2.5 match goals.

What really takes my fancy in this game is the cards market. Derby days are always firey affairs, and no more so than in the Spanish capital. The last 3 league draws shared between the two has seen 18 cards in total, with at least 5 in each game between the two sides combined. Interestingly, none of these games have seen a sending off, and that could worth looking into. I myself will be taking a look into the cards markets closer to the time, but 20/30+ points each team or 60/70+ points combined currently on Skybet would interest me at the current odds on offer.

Recommended Bets

  • Both teams to score: 7/10 (Bet365)
  • Atletico to win and BTTS: 11/2 (Bet365)
  • 70+ booking points both teams combined: 11/10 (Skybet)
  • 30+ booking points each team: 13/8 (Skybet)