Saints v Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 23rd September

Saints v Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips 23rd September

NFL specialist Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons and provides us with his best bets for one of Sunday’s blockbuster games by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

New Orleans Saints v Atlanta Falcons Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 23/09/18
  • Time: 18:00
  • Venue: Mercedes Benz Dome, Atlanta
  • Channel: Sky Sports Action from 17:00

Games between the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints are almost never boring. One of the major reasons is that both teams play their home games in domes, meaning that offenses can shine in the climate controlled conditions. In addition, playing road games in a dome means less of an adjustment for weather that you may not be used to, making playing on the road a little bit less of an issue.

Both teams head into this game with one win and one loss. The Falcons pretty easily handled the Carolina Panthers 31-24 in their last game to bounce back from a disappointing loss in Philadelphia in Week 1. The Saints snuck past the Cleveland Browns last week to ensure they did not suffer two home losses to open the season. Both of these offenses have had one good and one bad week, but both of their bad weeks have come against extremely good defenses that have been able to disrupt their rhythm. Their good weeks have come against much lesser defenses where they have been able to have their way for most of the game.

In this matchup I expect more of the latter with both teams having their troubles on defense in 2018. The Falcons defense has been riddled with injuries at all three levels and the Saints defense has failed to live up to the heights of 2017. That will set this game up to be a potential back-and-forth slobber knocker of a game that could see huge amounts of points scored.

Team News

Devonta Freeman limited and possibly out for the Falcons with a knee injury. Julio Jones has missed some practice this week with a tight calf but should be good to play. Andy Levitre, the Falcons right guard, has been ruled out for the season.

The Falcons have a number of defensive players missing, including Keanu Neal and Deion Jones on the injured reserve and Takkarist McKinley possibly limited with a groin issue.

Mark Ingram suspended for the Saints. Ted Ginn Jr. was limited in practice Wednesday with a knee injury.

Head To Head

  • Falcons lead overall 52-46 (including one playoff win for the Falcons).
  • Since Matt Ryan was drafted in 2008 the Saints lead 11-8.
  • Since 2014 the Falcons lead 5-3.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Drew Brees has a QB rating 13 points higher in a dome than when playing outside.
  • Matt Ryan has a QB rating eight points higher and completes 5% more passes at home than on the road.
  • The Saints defense ranks 30th in the NFL in points conceded and 29th in yards given up to opposing offenses.
  • After going 1-for-5 in the red zone in Week 1 the Falcons were 4-for-4 when inside the opposing 20 in Week 2.

Betting Odds

  • Atlanta Falcons 5/8 (Bet365)
  • New Orleans Saints 7/5 (Bet 365 & William Hill)

The Verdict

I think this game is going to have a ton of points in it. Both teams can light up the field with their offenses and both have question marks over their defenses.

Given the way the Saints have played to start the season I think the Falcons can come out on top but this game is going to come right down to the wire. For me a safer bet is betting the over on the points scored, and if you are feeling brave taking a higher points total for better odds I legitimately think both teams get into the 30s. The safe bet for me is over 53.5 but I would also look to try and push that line into the 60s if you can get the odds into the 3 or 4/1 region. After that I like the look of number of touchdowns scored and looking at Austin Hooper to score a touchdown at any time.

Recommended Bets

  • Over 53.5 – 10/11 (BetVictor)
  • Over 72.5 – 7/1 (Betfair)
  • Austin Hooper anytime touchdown scorer – 13/5 (Ladbrokes and Coral)
  • Over 6 touchdowns scored – 4/6 (Betfair)