Texans v Browns Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 02/12/18

Texans v Browns Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Ben Rolfe (@benrolfe15) previews Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans and provides us with his best bets for an important AFC showdown by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 02/12/18
  • Time: 18:00
  • Venue: NRG Stadium, Houston
  • Channel: NFL Gamepass

This is an absolutely fascinating game which has emerged over the past few weeks. The Houston Texans are on an eight game winning streak and finally began to look like a complete team against the Tennessee Titans on Monday. However, the Cleveland Browns are on their own two game winning streak and have looked like a different team in those two games.

The Texans leant on their run game on Monday and they had a lot of success, with 281 yards rushing. They now face a Cleveland Browns team who rank among the bottom 10 against the run in 2018. The Texans passing offense has managed to amass under 200 yards in five of their last six games and have a poor offensive line. This matchup with a Browns pass rush which has a ton of talented pieces could make for a long day. The Browns defence ranks first in the NFL in fumbles forced with 13 so Watson will need to make sure he holds onto the ball if Garrett and company start getting to him.

For the Cleveland offense the key is also on the ground. Nick Chubb has looked extremely good since taking over the starting running back job, and in the last two games we have also seen him contribute in the passing game. Against the Titans the Texans allowed a ton of short passes so if Cleveland is struggling running the ball they should be able to use the short passing game as a defacto run game. I expect the Browns to move the ball relatively easily through the air and they have the playmakers to make plays on this Texans defence. They also have a solid offensive line which should give Mayfield time to throw.

Team News           

The Texans had a lot of players on their injury report Wednesday and Thursday but most were either full participants or at worst limited. I expect most of them to play as this team is healthy at the perfect time.

JC Tretter and Austin Corbett on the offensive line are the biggest worries for the Browns, being held out of practice Wednesday and Thursday. Against a defensive line of this quality then Tretter is a big loss. If he is out then it does concern me but not enough to move away from this Browns offense which has been playing well and is just two weeks off a bye.

Head To Head

  • All time the Houston Texans are 6-3 against the Cleveland Browns.
  • Houston has won the last four meetings between the two, including a 33-17 win last season in Houston.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Since firing Hue Jackson the Cleveland Browns are 2-1 and have scored an average of 28 points per game.
  • The 28 and 35 points they have scored the last two weeks are the second and third highest amount of points they have scored they have scored in a game this season.
  • Over the last five week Nick Chubb has rushed for an average of 98 yards per game and in the last two he has averaged 38.5 yards receiving. In those last five games he has scored six touchdowns, including four in the last two games.
  • The Cleveland Browns defence have forced a turnover in every game this season and rank second in the NFL with 27 turnovers.
  • The Houston Texans are on an eight game winning streak, having started the season 0-3.
  • Lamar Miller has rushed for over 100 yards and a touchdown in three of his last five games. He averaged 100.4 yards per game on the ground in those five games.

Betting Odds

  • Cleveland Browns 23/10 (PaddyPower)
  • Houston Texans 2/5 (Betfair)

The Verdict

I did not think I would be doing this in 2018 but I will take the Browns getting the six or seven points. I think the Browns are playing the rest of this season for pride and to help their current coaching staff get jobs next year. The Browns seem dialed in and they should be able to cause the Texans more problems offensively and defensively than the Titans did. I think there is an outside shot they win the game and they are an underdog I would consider using in an accumulator.

I think there will be offense in this game and unfortunately so does the rest of the football betting world. This line has already been bet up from 45 points to 48. At 48 I would lean over but I am certainly not as bullish on it as I was at 45. You can currently get 10/11 on under 47 so it might be dropping a touch again and is definitely something to monitor. I also cannot pull the trigger on over 5.5 touchdowns as I think the defenses are good enough to cause their opponents issues at the goal line. I do like the idea of the Browns getting stopped in the red zone by the Texans in the first half so the Browns to have a first half field goal feels like a fun bet at 10/11 with Bet 365.

Individually I think we see Nick Chubb in the end zone again this week. The Browns really like him and he has shown he can hit the home run. I also expect we see DeAndre Hopkins in the end zone after Demaryius Thomas had two last week. Also look out for Lamar Miller’s yardage total. The amount of carries he gets are an issue but he has been running wild recently. If that total is set in the 70-80 yards region then I would look to take the over.

Recommended Bets

  • Cleveland Browns +6 – 10/11 (Betvictor)
  • Browns first half field goals over 0.5 – 10/11 (bet365)