Our man and football expert Sam Langston (@SamLan98) previews the Danish Superliga where he believes he's found value in the outright betting market.
2018/2019 Danish Superliga Outright Betting Preview & Tips
The opening round of Danish Superligaen fixtures has passed, however discrepancies can still be exploited in the outright winner market.
Generally contested by three main rivals, this norm has been reflected in the odds for the league title. Copenhagen have been priced up as the 6/4 favourites, whilst both Brøndby and Midtjylland are 12/5 outsiders. With 40/1 offered next for an outright Nordsjælland triumph, the heavy favouritism attached to the three front-runners is evident.
The market value attached to Ståle Solbakken’s Copenhagen implies a 40% chance of a Superligaen success. However, with the 12-times champions enduring a problematic on-the-pitch period, they have been overvalued by the market and should be opposed indefinitely.
Byens Hold placed 4th in last year’s standings and have continued their struggles into the opening of the new season. 1/6 shots to beat Finland’s KuPS Kuopio on Thursday, a late penalty was required to scrape an aggregate victory. This under-par display followed an opening day defeat to Horsens, where Bo Henriksen’s mediocre side ran out 2-1 winners at the Parken Stadium.
Solbakken’s side lack an identifiable playing style, are static in possession, and appear ponderous going forward. Kenan Kodro and Dame N’Doye are two goal scorers who can threaten, however the new front men are isolated and currently offer little. Reliability has been lost on the goals front due to Federico Santander’s departure, whilst sought after stopper Robin Olsen is also set to leave for Roma.
As such, Alexander Zorniger’s Brøndby and Jess Thorup’s Midtjylland can be considered the current value and should be looked at more closely. A 29.41% implied probability has been ascribed to both by the bookmakers, however favouring Zorniger’s side may be the angle to take here.
Drengene fra Vestegnen led for the majority of last season’s Superligaen, however a late twist in the title race meant they fell at the final hurdle. Brøndby were 27 games unbeaten heading into the closing four fixtures, but handed Midtjylland 1st position after drawing three and losing once.
Zorniger’s side crumbled and their rivals capitalised with conviction, however key performance data suggests that Brøndby were unfortunate not to be champions. They averaged the highest goals per-game ratio in the division, conceded the least, produced the most shots and shots on target, and also faced the fewest opposition attempts on goal. Boss Zorniger has stated that a similar collapse will not occur this campaign and therefore, the Superligaen can be won if last season’s performance is replicated.
Ultimately, retaining Hany Mukhtar will be pivotal in a potential title challenge and if the influential German stays on board, this will be a huge boost for Brøndby’s hopes. Attacking midfielder Mukhtar featured in all 36 games last season, bagging an impressive 10 goals and assisting on 14 occasions.
Admittedly, the sales of Christian Nørgaard and Teemu Pukki are big losses to Brøndby, however two excellent reinforcements can plug the gaps left by these departures. Experienced ex-Leipzig skipper Dominik Kaiser can fill the boots of Nørgaard, whilst clinical forward Ante Erceg has been purchased from Al Ahli to replace Pukki.
Croat Erceg scored 11 and assisted 8 in 25 appearances last term and alongside Kamil Wilczek, will bag goals for fun this season. Young Mikael Uhre’s pace also adds a new dimension to Brøndby’s attack and can be considered a savvy signing for just £450,000 from SønderjyskE.
Brøndby Can Secure Superliga Success
Most bookmakers slashed Brøndby’s odds following the opening round of fixtures, yet their price has drifted on Betfair. Subsequently, backing a first championship triumph since 2005 appears a smart play, with last season’s runners-up expected to outscore many an opponent.