2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Golf specialist Rob Taylor (@RobTaylorSport) previews the WGC – Mexico Championship and provides us with his best bets for this week’s event.

  • Profit & Loss: +16.5pts

2019 WGC-Mexico Championship Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: Thursday 21st – Sunday 24th
  • Venue: Club de Golf Chapultepec, Mexico City.
  • Channel: Sky Sports Golf.

Let’s begin with a recap of last week’s Genesis Open. My main pick Justin Thomas was four shots clear going into the final round. He was playing scintillating golf and seemed destined to take the trophy, to secure us a 2nd winner of the season. What followed, amongst the painfully slow play of JB Holmes, was an uncharacteristic demise by Thomas. His error strewn 75 let Holmes in for the win, leaving us having to settle for 2nd spot. An each way pay out none the less, but it could have been so much sweeter.

Schauffele and Cantlay both played steady, unspectacular golf, finishing T15, without ever being in contention.

On to this week, where the top 50 in the world (excluding drop outs and alternates) take part in the first World Golf Championship (WGC) event of the year, at Chapultepec in Mexico. This will be the third renewal of the WGC Mexico Championship, following the switch from Trump’s Doral, with Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson winning the first two events.

Justin Thomas tops the market, having finished 2nd and 5th in the last two years, with Dustin Johnson, Rory Mcilroy, Jon Rahm and Rickie Fowler close behind. Notable absentees include Justin Rose, Jason Day and Adam Scott, who have chosen not to have this event on their schedule.

Key Stats & Facts

Chapultepec is a classical tree lined 7,330 yard par 71 course, with testing poa annua greens.  Sounds similar to last week at Riviera? Well this time, the players are at altitude, so the course won’t play anywhere near that length.

Strategic play off the tee is essential, on a course where driver certainly won’t be required on every hole. However, just like last week, position on the fairways to attack these undulating poa annua greens is far more important to enable players to score well. With more of an emphasis on strong putting and scrambling this week, I’m still looking for players with sharp iron play and experience of playing well at courses at altitude. On the European Tour, the European Masters is played at Crans-sur Sierre in Switzerland, another iconic altitude course, where certain players have a terrific track record.

Recent winning scores include -16 and -14.

Betting Odds – the top 10 in the market

  • Justin Thomas 10/1
  • Dustin Johnson 11/1
  • Rory Mcilroy 11/1
  • Jon Rahm 16/1
  • Rickie Fowler 16/1
  • Bryson DeChambeau 16/1
  • Brooks Koepka 20/1
  • Tiger Woods 20/1
  • Xander Schauffele 25/1
  • Phil Mickelson 28/1

The Verdict

I’ve thought long and hard about putting up Justin Thomas again this week, he’s playing brilliant golf, there’s no doubt about it, but he’s a shorter price this week in a smaller field and there has to be a small doubt after his round 4 demise on Sunday. Instead I’m selecting four players who should give us some great opportunities for a return.

Jon Rahm 16/1: Jon Rahm’s rise in the game has been sensational. Now a firm fixture in the world’s top 10, his recent performances have been ridiculous. After winning the Hero World Challenge in December, he has followed it up with 5 top 10’s on the trot, including a solid 9th place last week. 16 of his last 24 rounds have been in the 60’s, so he’s playing very well right now. There is no doubt that Rahm is going to be a superstar for years to come and just needs a WGC or Major win to take him to the next level.

With a third place here in 2017 and 20th last year, he has obviously got used to the conditions quickly. I expect him to right up there this week.

Hideki Matsuyama 30/1: Following the injury issues of 2018, Matsuyama seems to be getting back to his best. With recent results reading; 3rd at the Farmers, 15th at Phoenix and 9th last week at Riviera, Matsuyama’s season stats are also there to admire, 2nd Tee to Green, 4th SG Approach and 1st in Scrambling. If he can sort out his putting woes, his price this week looks an attractive one. Hideki missed 6 putts from 4ft and under last week, which if converted, would have seen him challenging.

With the rest of his game nicely tuned, alongside his record in big events, I can see him going really well this week. Already a two time WGC winner and with 7 top 10s in majors, Matsuyama seems to thrive on the big stage.

Marc Leishman 33/1: Leishman remains in my view, one of the most underrated players on the tour. He is a man for the big occasion though, with 4 PGA Tour victories,  5 top 10’s in majors, along with a couple of top 10s in other WGC events. Leishman is primed for another big win, following up on October’s CIMB Classic title. He played brilliantly over the weekend at Riviera to get into contention, securing a 4th top 5 finish in his last 5 tournaments.

37th here on debut last year, he is also performing very well in some key statistics this season; 21st tee to green, 5th Approach, 5th Scrambling and 16th SG Putting shows that his all round game is right there to contend once again this week.

Tommy Fleetwood 40/1:  I have to say I was amazed at Fleetwood’s price this week. His style of play and record at altitude, including a 2nd and 14th place here over the past two years, made him a must pick for me. Yes, his start to the 2019 season has been steady rather than scintillating, but his game is still in good nick and I expect him to put together another good run in Mexico this week.

20th Approach, 9th Tee to Green and 24th Scrambling, are all stats that suggest Tommy’s game is simmering and matched with a fine record at the European Masters at altitude, where he has also had top 10’s, this could easily be the week to kick start his season properly.

Other players of note: At bigger prices and following the theme of players that have shown a liking for playing at altitude, both of these players look like decent value in either the outright or top 10 markets.

Alex Noren 100/1 is twice winner of the European Masters and 14th place here last year.

Lucas Bjerregaard 175/1 was runner up last year at the European Masters alongside other top 10’s at the event and had an amazing 2018 on tree lined courses.

Recommended Bets

  • 2pts Each Way – Jon Rahm 16/1 (Various)
  • 1pt Each Way – Hideki Matsuyama: 30/1(Various)
  • 1pt Each Way – Marc Leishman: 33/1 (Various)
  • 1pt Each Way – Tommy Fleetwood: 40/1 (Various)