Tom Love (@TomLove_18) previews Ajax v Tottenham and provides us with his best bets for Wednesday's Champions League clash by analysing team news, potential line ups, head to head, key stats, facts and more.
- Profit & Loss: -5.3pts
Ajax v Tottenham Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 08/05/19
- Time: 20:00pm
- Venue: Amsterdam Arena
- Channel: BT Sport
This is tantalisingly poised after a tight first leg at the new White Hart Lane which saw Donny Van Der Beek's goal price the difference. Ajax were accomplished in their performance and kept a surprise clean sheet in which was a game that was low on quality given the magnitude of the clash.
The Amsterdam club dominated the first half an hour and took their chance as Spurs defenders were caught cold as they played Van Der Beek onside and failed to react quick enough. From then on Spurs did have the majority of the ball but failed to create any serious goal scoring opportunities, their paltry xG total of 0.49 showed that they failed to enter dangerous areas of the pitch.
Mauricio Pochettino's men looked tired and their lack of squad depth is hurting them just at the wrong time, they've lost five of their last six games now. However there is some positive signs coming into this one. Heung Min-Son returns from suspension and Moussa Sissoko is back fit, we saw how much of a difference the Frenchman made when he came off the bench last week.
What's more, Spurs are simply not expected to progress here and with the pressure off it could benefit them psychologically. They really need their big players to step up going forward. Defensively they've been decent in the main but of late their goal output has dropped significantly, Poch needs much more from the likes of Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen in the final third to try and fill the void left by Harry Kane.
Spurs have to be aggressive in their approach, they were far too timid and not brave enough on the ball in the first leg, it may be that they just try and bully Ajax physically but that's easier said than done.
Harry Kane remains ruled out for Spurs, as is Harry Winks and Serge Aurier. Davinson Sanchez is also a doubt but Jan Verthongen and Erik Lamela are back in the frame.
Ajax have no new injury concerns, only Carel Eiting is out for the Dutch outfit.
Potential Ajax Starting XI: Onana, Veltman, De Ligt, Blind, Tagliafico, De Jong, Schone, Neres, Van Der Beek, Ziyech, Tadic.
Potential Tottenham Starting XI: Lloris, Trippier, Alderweireld, Verthongen, Rose, Wanyama, Sissoko, Eriksen, Alli, Moura, Son.
Key Stats & Facts
- Each one of Spurs' last 5 games has ended 1-0 with 4 of them being losses.
- Ajax are undefeated in 18 of their last 19 Champions League games.
- Ajax have picked up the most cards in the competition (25 yellows, 1 red).
- Ajax – 23/20
- Draw – 11/4
- Spurs – 12/5
I was surprised to see how short Ajax were here especially as it's a game they don't have to win. However it's hard to make too much of a case for Spurs given their poor recent record. I'm happy to swerve the goals angles as well because all of Spurs' last 5 games have featured just the single goal.
Instead I'm going to focus on two players with different bets on the pair. Firstly I'll take Heung Min-Son to have 2+ shots on target at 17/10 (Betfair). The South Korean will be eager to put the weekend's red card behind him and on the break he is the main threat with his pace and clever movement.
He averages 2.4 shots per game this season in both the premier league and the Champions League, however he is landing 1.3 of those on target in Europe compared to 0.9 in domestic matches. This bet came in comfortably at the Etihad in the last round, as well as the first leg of that tie. With the onus on Spurs to win I'd imagine they'd do most of the pressing and with Kane out I'd imagine Son will take the mantle as the front man.
Secondly I'm going to take the even-money from SkyBet on Moussa Sissoko to have 2+ tackles. Now, this might seem a bit of an obscure bet but initially I did expect it to be odds on.
Sissoko has arguably being the most improved player at the club this season, and his effervescent energy has been a major factor in Spurs getting to this stage. He's revelled in playing a more central role rather than out wide and as a midfielder in the middle of the park he's naturally involved in more of the action.
He managed 3 tackles against Man City in the first leg of the quarter finals. He also managed 3 away at Dortmund and 4 at home to the Germans in the round of 16, in addition this bet landed against Barcelona away.
Finally I'm going to take the 9/10 on Ajax +0.5 on the asian card handicap. They've picked up the most cards out of any side in this competition and have something to hold onto here. This bet would land if Ajax pick up more cards or an equal amount of cards to Spurs.