Arsenal v Brighton Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 05/05/19
James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews Arsenal v Brighton& Hove Albion and provides us with his best bets for this Super Sunday clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: +3.42pts
Arsenal v Brighton Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 05/05/19
- Time: 16:30
- Venue: Emirates Stadium
- Channel: Sky Sports
With both teams still playing for something, the final game of this weekend’s ‘Super Sunday’ promises to be an interesting one.
Brighton could have already been guaranteed Premier League survival by Saturday evening as Cardiff take on Crystal Palace at 5:30, with Cardiff needing to win to just take this relegation battle to Sunday. With Cardiff having to go to Old Trafford to face a United side potentially in with a shout of top four, you’d expect that Brighton may not need to win a game in order to stay up.
On the other hand, Arsenal are looking to return to the Champions League after two years out of Europe’s premier competition. However, after crumbling over the past couple of weeks, losing their last 3 games and conceding three goals in all three, their fate now rests in the hands of others. Spurs can guarantee Champions League with two points from their last two (or CL triumph), whilst Chelsea will likely need to win against Watford and at the King Power on the final day, permitting that Arsenal get past Brighton and Burnley at Turf Moor, which will be the furthest thing from a walkover.
I don’t think United should be ruled out either. Solskjaer’s side should accumulate maximum points from their final two outings and finish with 71 points, with Chelsea having two very tricky games and Arsenal’s away form suggesting they’ll struggle on the final day, I wouldn’t be so surprised if United sneak in on the final day.
Arsenal are coming into this one after a 3-1 victory over Spanish side Valencia in the first-leg of the Europa League semis. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s goal in added time may prove vital as the North London side travel to the Mestalla with a two-goal buffer, a buffer that will not be seen as many Arsenal fans as much of a cushion after some of the defensive performances as of late.
I’m sure many Arsenal fans will be calling for Unai Emery to rest some key men for Thursday’s second leg as many will see winning the Europa as the most likely way for to obtain Champions League football next year, rather than finishing in the top four.
The extent to which Arsenal have ‘bottled’ the top four this season is staggering. Since their victory at home to United back in March, which was their final game against a top 6 side, Arsenal have gained just 6 points in 6 games, losing out to Everton, Palace, Wolves and Leicester in their recent slump. In fact, Spurs have accumulated just 10 points since the 11th February and still sit 4 points clear of their North London rivals.
Brighton made a big step towards survival last weekend with a vital point at home to Newcastle, with a Pascal Gross strike cancelling out Ayoze Perez’s opener. Gross’ goal being the first the Seagulls had scored in 7, yes 7, matches. The stout performances of Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy have gone a long way to ensuring Brighton’s survival this season. I would go as far as saying that they’re one of the best CB duos in the league with their performance as a pairing against Spurs being one of the most impressive I’ve seen this season.
Their lack of goals is something that has got to be re-addressed in the summer, they can’t rely on 35-year-old Glenn Murray to get all their goals. Unfortunately, 2018 summer signings Alireza Jahanbakhsh (0 G+A’s) and Florin Andone (3 G+A’s) have not solved this issue at all and I would expect Brighton to dip their feet into the striker market in the summer. One signing who has improved over the course of the season is Yves Bissouma, who Brighton signed from Lille for £15m. The 21-year-old central midfielder is someone to look out for over the next couple of seasons.
Denis Suarez was added to Arsenal’s lengthy list of long-term absentees that also includes Aaron Ramsey, who suffered a hamstring injury in Naples a couple of weeks ago. The Welshman has played his last game in an Arsenal shirt before his summer move to Juventus.
Ainsley Maitland-Niles is also unavailable due to suspension.
Brighton have a couple of significant injuries with Jose Izquierdo ruled out due to a recurring knee issue whilst Davy Propper is still sidelined with a hamstring injury.
Potential Arsenal Starting XI: Leno, Mustafi, Sokratis, Mavropanos, Monreal, Iwobi, Guendouzi, Torreira, Mkhitaryan, Ozil, Lacazette.
Potential Brighton Starting XI: Ryan, Bruno, Dunk, Duffy, Bernardo, Gross, Bissouma, Stephens, Locadia, Murray, March.
Head To Head
- All-time: Arsenal-12, Draw-3, Brighton-3.
- Reverse fixture back in December ended in a 1-1 draw.
Key Stats & Facts
- Defender Shane Duffy is the Seagulls’ second top scorer this season with 5, behind only Glenn Murray who has 11.
- Pascal Gross’ goal in the 75th minute of last Saturday’s game was Brighton’s first in 735 minutes (all comps).
- Brighton have won just two of their last 16 league matches and are without a win in seven. They have never gone eight games without a victory in the Premier League.
- Albion have lost all 11 of their Premier League away games against established top-six opposition, by an aggregate score of 2-23.
- Arsenal have lost four of their past five Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 29.
- Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have combined for 32 goals this season (in PL), with 12 of Aubameyang’s goals coming against teams in the bottom half.
- They have let in 49 Premier League goals this season. They could concede 50 or more goals in consecutive top-flight campaigns for the first time since 1982-83 and 1983-84.
- Their defeat to Palace at the Emirates was the first home defeat since the opening weekend.
- Arsenal 4/9
- Draw 4/1
- Brighton 17/2
This one is tough to call as I think the outcome is very much dependent on Cardiff’s result on Saturday. A win for the Blues mounts the pressure on Chris Hughton’s side for this one, but, a defeat and his side can very much relax against an Arsenal side still fighting for a top-four finish. I’m going to call this one as if Cardiff have lost/drawn to Palace and Brighton have survived (barring a crazy goal swing on the final day). Therefore, I see Arsenal winning this one with under 3.5 goals in the game as well. This Brighton defence has improved in recent weeks, conceding just one in three and were three minutes or so away from keeping a clean sheet at Spurs, a couple of days after shutting out Jimenez and Jota at Molineux. With Emery having a solid one/ one and a half eyes on Thursday’s game, I think we could see a couple of players rested, giving me a solid reason to believe that Arsenal won’t blow away this resolute Brighton side on Sunday.
Another bet I fancy for Sunday is for the second half to be the highest scorer. Looking at the stats, Arsenal have scored 28 of their 41 goals at the Emirates in the second half this season and I think the trend will continue on Sunday. Brighton will be tough to break down in the first, much like they were against Spurs, but, in the end, Arsenal will have too much quality for the visitors, especially at the Emirates where they rarely lose.