Dave South (@LockupTipster) previews Arsenal v Chelsea and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s 17:30pm kick off by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: +3.48pts
Arsenal v Chelsea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 19/01/19
- Time: 17:30
- Venue: Emirates
- Channel: BT Sport
Both teams square off under the lights at the Emirates in what could be a feisty encounter. Odds compilers have taken into account Arsenal’s vulnerabilities at the back and have pitted their London rivals as favourites despite three of the last six meetings ending all square.
The pressure will be on the home side, where defensive frailties have resulted in the Gunners conceding almost twice as many as their counterparts despite being just a place below in the table.
Arsenal's injury concerns have eased significantly over the last week and they will only be missing four players when they entertain Chelsea on Saturday evening: Danny Welbeck, Rob Holding, Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Konstantinos Mavropanos.
Lucas Torreira will return to the starting XI after he was surprisingly dropped to the bench in last weekend's 1-0 defeat to West Ham and Unai Emery must decide between Granit Xhaka and Matteo Guendouzi as his partner in midfield.
Ross Barkley and Mateo Kovacic have been in competition to partner Jorginho and N'Golo Kante all season and that will continue here.
It is in these matches that will convince someone like Callum Hudson-Odoi to stay or leave Chelsea and Maurizio Sarri is expected to pick Willian and Pedro ahead of the Bayern Munich target.
Alvaro Morata may not even be a Chelsea player by the time this match starts with a move to Atletico Madrid almost complete. Gonzalo Higuain is close to joining Chelsea but time is running out to have him available for this game.
Eden Hazard will more than likely start as a false nine against Arsenal, though Olivier Giroud will want to start against his former club.
Potential Arsenal Starting XI: Leno, Koscielny, Sokratis, Mustafi, Bellerin, Torreira, Xhaka, Kolasinac, Aubameyangy, Iwobi and Lacazette
Potential Chelsea Starting XI: Arrizabalaga, Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Luiz, Alonso, Kovacic, Jorginho, Kante, Pedro, Hazard and Willian
Head To Head
- Arsenal 2-3-1 (Last six)
Key Stats & Facts
- Arsenal have won 13 of their last 16 home matches in the Premier League.
- Chelsea have won their last 3 away games in the Premier League.
- Chelsea have won with a single goal margin in their last 3 away games.
- Arsenal – 11/5 Betfair
- Draw – 131/50 Marathonbet
- Chelsea – 11/8 Unibet
Layers are taking no chances on this one making a valid case for all three outcomes, but of course making Chelsea the narrow favourites on the basis of their better defence as one of many factors. Arsenal have slipped up once too often winning just two of the last five, with Chelsea struggling to see games off winning successive games by a single goal margin.
The last meeting between the pair ended on a similar outcome of a single goal margin and Betway punt that either team win by a single goal at 7/5, whereas if Chelsea make it 4/4 on the road by a single goal, this warrants a 33/10 chalking with Marathonbet. Looking at the usual suspect markets, both sides to score won’t be found at 6/10 or more, which I fancied taking on. Arsenal have the fluidity of netting, especially going against the trend of Chelsea’s narrow scoring games. Arsenal have netted in every home since their opener back in August.
Chelsea have conceded in half of their games but have conceded in four of their last five. Attempting to back both to score at a smidgen under 6/10 is what you might leave for accumulator material in general. I looked at the Bet365 bet builder and looked at the stats of both sides scoring within the first ten minutes in general.
Arsenal at home on average net after the 51st minute with Chelsea netting after the 42nd minute, so by taking the additional punt on the 10-minute draw and both to score pays a respectable 20/21 with Bet365, which basically enhances the bet on the proviso the game is quiet for the opening ten minutes. I am sure with both sides set up, both will be initially difficult to breakdown whilst we hope for the opening ten minutes to fade away.
An alternative approach might be to take on the corner’s markets with Skybet punting 10/11 both teams are awarded four or more corners. Chelsea have achieved this 9/10 on the road, with Arsenal bagging this 9/11 and average over six a game at the Emirates, so is worth a play also.