EFL expert Tom Love (@TomLove_18) previews Aston Villa v West Brom and provides us with his best bets for Saturday's Championship clash by analysing team news, potential line ups, head to head, key stats, facts and more.
- Profit & Loss: -5.8pts
Aston Villa v West Brom Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 16/02/19
- Time: 15:00pm
- Venue: Villa Park
- Channel: N/A
It's an all West Midlands affair as Aston Villa welcome the Baggies to B6 in this big championship clash.
Villa have struggled for consistency of late but remarkably came back from 3-0 down with 10 minutes left to draw 3-3 with Sheffield United last weekend. Dean Smith will hope that will give the claret and blue a confidence boost for this match up.
Villa failed to create anything of note for a good hour last week, something we don't link with a Dean Smith side. Usually they create good goalscoring chances at will and like to get the ball wide and get crosses in. Conor Hourihane regularly drifts to the left to then cut inside and whip balls into the box for Tammy Abraham.
West Brom centre halves Craig Dawson and Kyle Bartley will have to have their wits about them from a positional point of view, keeping Abraham quiet in the box is a tough job.
The Baggies have been strong going forward all season and have been decent on the run of late when playing away from the Hawthorns. The loss of Harvey Barnes who returned to Leicester was an obvious blow, however they've brought in wide men Jefferson Montero and Jacob Murphy in to replace him.
The hosts remain with out keeper Ørjan Nyland, defender Axel Tuanzebe and midfielders Jack Grealish and Henri Lansbury. James Chester and Neil Taylor are both rated as doubtful. Andre Green could get a start after his excellent cameo off the bench last week.
The visitors are without the suspended Dwight Gayle which is a blow. Ahmed Hegazi, Matt Phillips and Hal Robson-Kanu are all out.
Potential Aston Villa Starting XI: Kalinic, El-Mohamady, Elphick, Mings, Hutton, Whelan, McGinn, Hourihane, El Ghazi, Green, Abraham.
Potential West Brom Starting XI: Johnstone, Holgate, Dawson, Bartley, Gibbs, Livermore, Barry, Murphy, Hoolahan, Townsend, Rodriguez.
Key Stats & Facts
- There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Aston Villa's last 8 home games
- Villa have scored 2 or more goals in their last 9 home games
- Aston Villa have conceded at least 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 home games
- West Brom have won 6 of their last 7 away games
- Aston Villa are undefeated in 10 of their last 11 home games
- Aston Villa – 8/5
- Draw – 13/5
- West Brom – 7/4
There's little to separate these two in the 1X2 market and it's easy to see why given the respective home/away form of the pair. One thing that has remained a constant is goals.
Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals is available to back at 20/23 with Boylesports and looks a great place to start. It's landed in 8 of Villa's last 9 on their own patch.
The reverse fixture ended in a 2-2 draw and I could see a repeat of that here with not much to choose between both sides but goals being a feature it looks worth a play at 23/2 with 188bet.
Finally with this being a derby game I'm expecting it to be quite feisty and two players I like for a booking are Alan Hutton for the hosts and Mason Holgate for the visitors. Both players are 11/4 to be cautioned and as full backs they're probably in one of the most vulnerable positions on the pitch to be booked.
Holgate only joined the Baggies in January and he's seen yellow in 3 games already, he's likely to be coming up against the tricky Andre Green who's jinking runs can cause havoc. Hutton will have to deal with whoever plays on the left wing for the visitors as well as the extra attacking threat of Kieran Gibbs from full back. The Scotsman has been booked 8 times this season including in his last two league games.