Atalanta v AC Milan Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 16/02/19

Atalanta v AC Milan Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Atalanta v AC Milan and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s Serie A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Atalanta v AC Milan Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 16/02/19
  • Time: 19:30
  • Venue: Stadio Atleti Azzuri D’Italia
  • Channel: Eleven Sports

The race for the final Champions League continues this weekend, as Milan travel to Bergamo to face the in-form Atalanta.

Gennaro Gattuso’s men are also in fine form, having not lost in the league in 2019 and boasting three wins and two draws in their five league fixtures since the turn of the year.

Milan currently hold the final Champions League spot with 15 games to go but are just one point ahead of Atalanta in fifth, who are also level on points with Roma and Lazio.

Atalanta are arguably the most in-form side in Italian football at the minute, having won five of their six games in all competitions since the winter break and scoring a total of 16 goals in that process.

Their most recent form has seen them draw games against Roma and Juventus, beat the Old Lady in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals, 3-0, and have beaten Lazio.

One of the main reasons behind their incredible surge up the table has been down to striker, Duvan Zapata, who has contributed 16 goals in total, with 15 of those coming in his last 10 Serie A matches. He has managed a hat-trick and a four-goal haul in that period and Milan need to be very wary of him.

If Zapata has been Atalanta’s main man, then Krzystof Piatek is already establishing himself as Milan’s key player. Since he joined from Genoa, he looks to be providing Milan with the goal-scorer they have craved so desperately in recent years. He has four goals in a Milan shirt in his four games as a Rossonerri so far, which added to the 19 he had with Genoa in all competitions before his move, he now has 23 goals in 25 appearances for both Genoa and Milan.

Given the two incredibly prolific goal-scorers in both teams, this could well be a game full of goals. Atalanta have the most goals in the league with 50 (18 more than Milan) but have conceded 31 (10 more than Milan), so Gattuso’s men will fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet.

With so much at stake, neither side will want to lose the game and that could turn this into a very cagey game. Milan do not concede many but Atalanta have scored at least two goals against Juventus twice already this season and three against Roma last month, so if any team is going to break them down, it will be the home side.

Team News

Both these sides are unlikely to make changes from the respective sides that have done so well in recent weeks. Mattia Caldara, Cristian Zapata and Giacomo Bonaventura are all long-term absentees.

Potential Atalanta Starting XI: Berisha; Toloi, Djimsiti, Palomino; Hataboer, De Roon, Freuler, Castagne; Gomez; Ilicic, Zapata

Potential Milan Starting XI: Donnarumma; Calabria, Musacchio, Romagnoli, Rodriguez; Kessie, Bakayoko, Paqueta; Suso, Piatek, Calhanoglu

Head To Head

  • Milan lead the H2H 19-8 with 12 draws. There have been 5 draws in the last 7 matches between these two sides but the away team has only won one of the last 7.

Key Stats & Facts

  • BTTS has occurred in all of the last five matches held in Bergamo (Atalanta).
  • Over 2.5 goals has occurred in 13 of Atalanta’s last 15 league games.
  • Atalanta have scored at least two goals in five of their last six league games.

Betting Odds

  • Atalanta – EVENS
  • Draw – 12/5
  • Milan – 3/1

The Verdict

Both of these sides are in good form and with it being so close between Milan, Atalanta, Lazio and Roma, neither side will want to lose this game.

Goals are constantly the theme within Atalanta games, with BTTS occurring in 13/23 (57%) Serie A games, including five of their last six home games. Atalanta are the top scorers in the league with 50 in their 23 matches and they have scored at least once in 15 straight league games and have scored 19 goals across their last six Serie A matches.

As for Milan, they have conceded just 21 goals this season (0.9 goals a game) and only eight away from home in their 11 away games so far (0.7 goals a game). With that in mind, it makes this game slightly hard to call, as you have the best attack against one of the stronger defences.

Having said that, Atalanta seem to only be able to play one way, which is to attack and score goals. They have scored three and two against Juventus in recent months, who have the best defence in the league. Duvan Zapata is in ridiculous goal-scoring form, and at home, with the crowd behind them, I fancy them to breach this Milan defence.

So I am going to suggest a 1pt play on ‘Over 2.5 goals and BTTS’ at 6/5 and also a 1pt play on Zapata to score anytime at 7/5.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt – Over 2.5 goals and BTTS – 121/100 (MarathonBet)
  • 1pt – Duvan Zapata to score anytime – 7/5 (Unibet)