Atalanta v Bologna Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 04/04/19
Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marcello95cf) previews Atalanta vs Bologna and provides us with his best bets for Thursday’s Serie A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: -5.78pts
Atalanta v Bologna Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 04/04/19
- Time: 20:00
- Venue: Stadio Atelti Azzurri D’Italia
This midweek round of games comes with the final stretch of Serie A matches and relegation, European spots and top four to play for.
This game sees Europa League chasing Atalanta face relegation threatened Bologna in Bergamo on Thursday evening.
The home side have had a brilliant season thus far and are scoring goals for fun. Goals are coming from all over the pitch but in particular, from Duvan Zapata, who has 19 league goals and he scored two at the weekend against Parma. They lie in sixth place, just a point above Roma in seventh, so this game they should really be winning if they have hopes of European football next season.
The Bergamo based side are the joint-top scoring side in the league with 60 goals but conceding goals has been a real issue for them also. They have conceded 40, which is the second worst in the top 10 and have kept just four clean sheets at home this season. BTTS has occurred in eight of the last 10 home games and Atalanta are averaging 2.1 goals a game over their last 10 home matches.
Bologna have struggled all season and are just two points above the relegation zone but have recently gone on a three-match winning run in the league, which has seen them rise out of the relegation zone. They have only conceded three more goals than their opponents on Thursday with 43, which is not a ridiculously high number, especially as they are down in 17th position in the league.
Goal scoring has been their main problem, with just 27 goals in their 29 league games so far. They have improved of late, scoring at least two in their last three games and have won all of those three games. With being just two points clear of Empoli in 18th, they could really do with getting something here and given Atalanta’s defensive record, they will have their chances.
Gian Piero Gasperini rotated his squad at the weekend and will continue to do so here. Josip Ilicic should be in the side from the start this weekend, after coming off the bench at the weekend.
Federico Santander is back to full-fitness but Sinisa Mihajlovic will be wary of his lack of game time. Lyanco served out his suspension and will likely be restored to the starting 11. Federico Mattiello is a long-term absentee.
Potential Atalanta Starting XI: Gollini; Mancini, Djimisti, Masiello; Hatoboer, De Roon, Freuler, Gosens; Gomez; Ilicic, Zapata
Potential Bologna Starting XI: Skorupski; Mbaye, Danilo, Lyanco, Dijks; Pulgar, Dzemaili; Edera, Soriano, Sansone; Falcinelli
Head To Head
- These two sides have played 31 games between them, with Atalanta winning 15 of them, eight draws and seven Bologna wins. Bologna have only ever won once in Bergamo.
Key Stats & Facts
- Atalanta are averaging 2 goals per game this season and have scored the joint most goals in the 18/19 campaign, level on 60 with league leaders, Juventus.
- Atalanta have the second worst defensive record of any team in the top 10 in the Serie A.
- Bologna have conceded just three more goals than Atalanta but have only managed 27 goals so far this season.
- Bologna have scored two or more goals in their last three league games, but have also conceded at least two in their last three away games in the Serie A.
- Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20 of Atalanta’s 29 league matches.
- Atalanta – 8/15
- Draw – 7/2
- Bologna – 7/1
Atalanta have had a brilliant season thus far and currently sit in sixth place, which would be good enough for a Europa League qualifying place and are scoring goals for fun. They have managed 60 already this season, which is the joint most in the league, level with Juventus. As for Bologna, they have only managed 27 goals this season and currently sit a point above the relegation zone in 17th, but they have won three league matches in a row.
Atalanta this season are similar to the Liverpool team under Brendan Rogers, in the sens that they normally just out-score teams. They are flaky defensively, which might be down to the fact their defenders spend more time scoring goals than defending their own. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 20/29 (68%) games this season in the league, with over 3.5 goals landing in 15/29 (52%).
As for Bologna, over 2.5 goals has landed in 14/29 league games (48%) but has occurred in 7 of their last 10 away league games, including all of the last three. They have also managed to score in 10 of their last 11 (90%) away Serie A matches and given Atalanta’s leaky defence, this game could be full of goals.
This match, as I have said, sees two sides that concede plenty of goals. As mentioned in the stats above, Atalanta have the second worst defensive record of any of the top 10 sides in the Serie A (40 goals conceded in 29 league games) which averages at 1.3 per game. Bologna have conceded just three more, which makes their average 1.4 per game, so the clever thing to do would be to follow the trend and back goals here.