Sam Langston (@Samlan98) previews Brazil v Venezuela and provides us with his best bets for Tuesday’s Copa América Group A clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
- 2019 Profit & Loss: +0.27pts
Brazil v Venezuela Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 18/06/2019
- Time: 1:30
- Venue: Fonte Nova Arena
- Channel: Premier Sports
Three second-half goals sealed a comfortable win for Brazil in their Copa curtain raiser versus Bolivia, but there’s plenty for Tite’s troops to improve on heading into their second group game with Venezuela.
Seleção supporters have become accustomed to Tite’s conservatism over his three-year reign. It was evident again in the first-half on Saturday, as the Brazil boss opted to start the double pivot of Fernandinho and Casemiro at the base of his midfield.
This was unnecessarily cautious against a side who had lost their last 14 competitive away fixtures and it ultimately contributed to a lacklustre and predictable first-half Brazil performance. Tite’s side racked up 76% of the possession but could only muster a single shot on target and were subsequently booed off by a frustrated São Paulo audience with the score 0-0 heading into the interval.
Tite moved Fernandinho higher up the pitch after the break, allowing his side to play more expansively. Barcelona orchestrator Arthur is expected to start from the off in favour of the City man in Salvador and this should help Brazil retain greater fluidity in their play.
The Seleção next meet a Venezuela side who kicked-off their Copa campaign with a 0-0 draw against Peru. La Vinotinto have made massive strides in the last year, climbing up to their best ever position of 29th in the FIFA world rankings, and they’ll no doubt provide the Copa favourites with a slightly sterner test than in their first group game against the Bolivians.
Arthur has recovered from his injury and should be handed a start for the Seleção.
Alongside Torino’s Tomás Rincón, Salomón Rondón is the main man in this Venezuelan side. He’ll spearhead their 4-5-1 formation. Ronald Hernández is likely to replace Luis Mago, who received a second booking in the stalemate with Peru.
Potential Brazil Starting XI: Alisson, Alves, Silva, Marquinhos, Filipe Luís, Arthur, Casemiro, Coutinho, Neres, Richarlison, Jesus.
Potential Venezuela Starting XI: Faríñez, Rosales, Chancellor, Villanueva, Hernandez, Moreno, Rincón, Herrera, Murillo, Savarino, Rondón.
Head To Head
- Brazil won the last meeting between the nations 2-0 in 2018 World Cup Qualifying. The two head-to-head matches prior to that ended in 3-1 and 2-1 victories for the Seleção.
Key Stats & Facts
- Brazil beat Bolivia 3-0.1 on xG metric.
- 24 of Brazil’s 30 wins under Tite have seen the Seleção emerge victorious by at least two goals.
- Venezuela have W7-D13-L10 since native Rafael Dudamel was appointed manager in 2016.
- Each of Venezuela’s five competitive away losses under Dudamel have been settled by a minimum of a two-goal margin.
- Brazil – 1/5
- Draw – 13/2
- Venezuela – 20/1
A combination of VAR and poor Peru finishing salvaged a point for Venezuela in their Group A opener. La Vinotinto were saved by the video referee twice, surrendering a significant 1.93 Expected Goals in the process, and they’ll do well to ride their luck again against this ruthless Seleção outfit.
Brazil outperform their xG figures on a consistent basis; it’s no surprise given the quality in their squad. Tite’s pragmatism limits the chances they create but his side are clinical when presented with the slightest of opportunities.
I therefore like Black Type’s 5/7 on them to cover the -1.75 Asian Handicap here. Despite the market opening at 3/4, it still appears to be excellent value.
This bet requires a victory by at least three goals to pay out as a full winner but we’ll have the insurance of a half stakes win should Tite’s side triumph by a margin of two.
Tite’s Seleção so often fail to hit top gear but their quality is such that they more often than not run out handsome winners. In fact, 13 of Tite’s 14 competitive wins as Brazil boss have come by a two-goal margin or more, so the fact that we can profit if his side win by exactly two goals makes the current line on offer very attractive.
As such, I don’t expect this price to be around for too much longer. I’m sure the line will be set higher come kick-off, so snatch the value whilst it’s on offer.