Marcello Cossali-Francis (@marchCF96) previews Burnley vs Aberdeen and provides us with his best bets for Thursday’s second-round Europa League second-leg qualifier by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.
Burnley v Aberdeen Betting Preview, Odds & Tips
- Date: 02/08/18
- Time: 19:45
- Venue: Turf Moor
Burnley and Aberdeen face off in their second leg of the Europa League second-round qualifier after the 1-1 draw in Scotland last week.
Burnley needed a late bit of brilliance from Sam Vokes to give them the advantage heading into the second-leg, but this match looks very difficult to call.
The Scottish side looked the better in the first-leg and were bitterly disappointed with the late concession of the away goal, but they showed enough to suggest they can still win this tie.
The Scottish side were extremely aggressive and strong in defence and were rarely troubled by Burnley up until the equaliser. The Burnley starting eleven is not filled with goals and the fact they have not added to their squad this summer is worrying for them, as it is difficult to see where the goals are going to come from. Burnley have won just twice at home this year in all competitions and have won just two of their last nine games overall.
As for Aberdeen, they are on a current 11 match streak without defeat and lost just five of their away games in the league this season. Their main threat comes from Gary Mackay-Steven, who has scored eight goals for the Dons this season and scored the penalty in the first-leg. He looks the most likely to score in this game from either side and he may be the way to go in the anytime goal scorer market.
Burnley are heavy favourites for the game at 19/50 best price but on the back of last week’s performance, they do not look all that much better than their Scottish counterparts. Aberdeen at 9/1 look really good value considering they were equal to, if not better, than Burnley in the first-leg and given Aberdeen’s form this year and how Burnley have won just twice at home in 2018, this game looks much closer to call than the bookies suggest.
Given that the bookies favour Burnley so heavily, we can use the handicap market to find a decent bet here. Aberdeen +2 at 4/5 looks a very decent price even if it’s an odds-on bet but given Aberdeen are much more accustomed to these qualifiers than Burnley and that Burnley are fortunate to be level in this match, this bet looks very strong.
Aberdeen in the double chance market is a bet that offers an even better price at 12/5 and at those odds, that would be where to lean towards. The Dons showed they were capable of restricting Burnley for the most part and know that if they can score, they can give themselves a real chance of going through. Burnley look short of goals and the fact they have the slender advantage means they will probably sit back and try to defend maintain that.
Nick Pope was substituted in the 11th minute of the first-leg last week and manager, Sean Dyche, fears the injury could be a serious one. He misses out and will be replaced by Anders Lindegaard. Goal scorer Sam Vokes could replace Chris Wood in attack.
Aberdeen have no new injury fears and manager, Derek McInnes, could name an un-changed starting eleven.
Potential Burnley Starting XI: Lindegaard; Lowton, Tarkowski, Mee, Ward; Cork, Westwood; Lennon, Hendrick, Gudmundsson, Vokes
Potential Aberdeen Starting XI: Lewis, Logan, Devlin, McKenna, Hoban, Ferguson, Shinnie, Ball, Mackay-Steven, Cosgrove, McGinn.
Head To Head
- The first-leg was the first time these two sides have met in any competition.
Key Stats & Facts
- There have been under 2.5 goals in Aberdeen’s last seven games in Europa League qualifying matches.
- Burnley have won just two home games in 2018
- Aberdeen lost just five of their 19 away games this season
- Burnley – 4/11
- Draw – 9/2
- Aberdeen – 9/1
Whilst the bookies have this down as a straight forward victory for the Claret and Blues, I don’t see it being anywhere near as one sided. Aberdeen could and should have closed out a 1-0 victory in the first leg and had chances of their own to seal victory and travel to Lancashire knowing they have the ability to get through this tie. Burnley lack fire power but are extremely solid as we all know so the fact they have the away goal makes it tough for the Dons but it looks set to be a very close game, which might come down to the away goals rule or even extra time and penalties.