Burnley v Chelsea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 26/10/19

Burnley v Chelsea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamescormack_) previews Burnley v Chelsea and provides us with his best bets for Saturday evening’s televised Premier League clash] by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +14.67pts

Burnley v Chelsea Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 26/10/19
  • Time: 17:30
  • Venue: Turf Moor
  • Channel: Sky Sports Main Event

Chelsea will be looking to make it seven wins in a row in all competitions under their new boss Frank Lampard as they travel to Turf Moor to take on Sean Dyche’s Burnley.

After a nightmare start, which saw them lose 4-0 at Old Trafford on matchday one, Lampard’s men accumulated 17 points from their next eight Premier League games, leaving them fourth in the table.

Their only other domestic defeat this season was a 2-1 home loss to table-toppers Liverpool and even in that one, this young Chelsea side impressed.

In the week, we saw the Blues put in one of their most impressive European performances in recent years – beating Ajax, last season’s semi-finalists, 1-0 on their turf. Despite the losses of Matthijs de Ligt and Frenkie de Jong in the summer, it’s still a very talented Ajax side that possesses the likes of Hakim Ziyech, Donny van de Beek, Quincy Promes and Dusan Tadic.

And despite the youthful core of this Chelsea team, it was a very mature display from Lampard’s warriors. They looked comfortable throughout and made it incredibly tough for the usually free-flowing Dutch side to find any rhythm going forward. Eventually, their stoutness at the back and overall control of proceedings was rewarded with substitute Michy Batshuayi, who had earlier spurned a glorious opportunity, netting the winner 15 minutes from time.

With all the plaudits seemingly going to the likes of Tammy Abraham, Mason Mount and Fikayo Tomori, it has to be said that the midfield duo of Mateo Kovacic and Jorginho have been superb for Lampard this season and look almost unrecognisable from their 2018/19 campaigns. With N’Golo Kante struggling for fitness, the two have needed to step up – something they certainly have done.

After that impressive victory, their attention now turns to the tricky fixture of Burnley away.

The Clarets have picked up three of each to start their campaign (W3 D3 L3) and will be hoping to bounce back from their VAR-inspired defeat at the King Power last weekend.

Sitting deep in their typical 4-4-2, Dyche’s men have been a difficult side to beat at Turf Moor this season. Only Liverpool, who won convincingly, have been able to score there. The centre-back duo of Ben Mee and James Tarkowski has been as stout as ever, whilst full-backs Matthew Lowton and Erik Pieters have certainly ‘done their job’.

The physical nature of this Burnley side just a few days after a massive away win in Europe is not ideal for Chelsea, who don’t exactly have the cleanest bill of health at the moment.

Team News        

Dyche will be welcoming back Jack Cork for this one after the former Chelsea man Jack Cork missed Burnley’s last two games with a shoulder injury.  Similarly, Ashley Barnes could return to the starting XI after missing the trip to Leicester last weekend with a groin injury.

Chelsea loanee Danny Drinkwater isn’t legible to face his parent club, whilst wide midfielder Johann Berg Gudmundsson is out with a thigh injury.

As for the visitors, N’Golo Kanté has not recovered in time for this one after picking up a knock on international duty.

Ross Barkley is a doubt after rolling his ankle in Chelsea’s 1-0 victory over Newcastle last weekend. The Englishman missed the trip to Amsterdam in the week.

We could see Emerson return on Saturday as Frank Lampard looks to ease the burden on Marcos Alonso. The Italian suffered a thigh injury prior to the recent break but has since returned to training.

However, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Andreas Christensen and Antonio Rudiger are unlikely to return for this one.

Potential Burnley Starting XI: Pope; Lowton, Mee, Tarkowski, Pieters; Lennon, Cork, Westwood, McNeil; Wood, Rodriguez.

Potential Chelsea Starting XI: Kepa; Azpilicueta, Tomori, Zouma, Emerson; Jorginho, Kovacic; Pulisic, Mount, Hudson-Odoi; Abraham.

Head To Head

  • All-time: Burnley-38, Draw-24, Chelsea-36
  • The home side have won just one in their last ten against the Blues – a 3-2 win at Stamford Bridge on the opening weekend of the 2017/18 season.
  • Burnley haven’t beaten Chelsea at home since 1983.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Chelsea have won their last six games in all competitions.
  • Burnley’s only defeat at Turf Moor this season came against Liverpool – they’ve won their other three home games.
  • The Clarets have kept clean sheets in all three of their home victories.
  • In their four away games this season, the Blues have conceded nine goals – the fourth highest tally in the division.
  • However, they also average three goals a game on the road – the second-best record in the league.
  • Stats suggest that the visitors have conceded more goals than they should’ve done this season. They’ve conceded 14 times but have an xGA of 10.06 – their -3.94 differential is the league’s second-lowest, above only Watford.
  • Ashley Barnes hasn’t found the back of the net since matchday four when he scored in a 1-1 draw away at Wolves.

Betting Odds

  • Burnley 15/4
  • Draw 3/1
  • Chelsea 10/13

The Verdict

This is a difficult fixture for the Blues, difficulty that is amplified due to injury issues around the squad. A large majority of those who played on Wednesday will have to play again on Saturday and it wouldn’t be surprising to see an underwhelming Chelsea performance, no matter how good they’ve looked as of late.

This is a difficult game to find much value in, so I’ve only got the one bet lined up for this one.

That one bet is a Burnley double chance. The Clarets have kept three clean sheets in their three victories at home this season and I think they’ll make it tough for a Chelsea attack that has impressed so far. At the other end, Burnley have two physical centre-forwards who will be a nuisance for ‘youngsters’ Tomori and Kurt Zouma. It’ll be important for Burnley to see out the opening 45 as the Blues have scored 58% of their 19 goals in the first half and also if this Chelsea side does fatigue, it’ll be later on in the game. Plus, Ashley Barnes, who could be returning from injury for this one, is certainly due a goal.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt – Burnley double chance – 59/50 (Marathon Bet)