Burnley v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 31/08/19

Burnley v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamescormack_) previews Burnley v Liverpool and provides us with his best bets for Saturday’s evening kick-off by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +6.79pts

Burnley v Liverpool Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 31/08/19
  • Time: 17:30
  • Venue: Turf Moor
  • Channel: Sky Sports

Liverpool are looking to maintain their fast start to the 2019/20 Premier League season with a win over Burnley on Saturday evening. The Reds are the only side to have a 100% record in the league thus far.

With Spurs and VAR costing Manchester City two points on game week two, Jurgen Klopp’s men have got the early advantage in the title race. Yes, I’m talking about a title race in August. But, the reality is, these two sides are comfortably the best two teams in the country. I thought Spurs would close that gap and potentially make it a three-horse race, but after seeing their early performances and the rumoured dysfunction behind the scenes, I don’t have much hope for the North London side.

Despite winning all three of their games, including an impressive win over Arsenal last weekend, this Liverpool backline certainly hasn’t looked quite as stout as it did last season. After conceding 22 in 38 in 2018/19, they’ve conceded 3 in 3 so far and teams have created more than enough in all three games.

Unai Emery tried to nullify Liverpool’s threat through the middle by deploying a diamond midfield. It was a tactic that allowed TAA and Andy Robertson the most space out of anyone on the pitch but also meant that the likes of Nicolas Pepe and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang could exploit the voids left behind by the advancing full-backs. Emery’s plan was clever but poorly executed.

Against Sean Dyche and Burnley this week, it’s going to be a completely different game for the Reds. In their typical 4-4-2, Burnley’s wide midfielders will have to work tirelessly to prevent Liverpool’s full-backs having too much space, as well as trying to make the game as compact as they can. Liverpool’s defence will also have a different sort of test as well. Instead of the pace of Aubameyang and Pepe, they’ll be dealing with the physicality and intelligence of Ashely Barnes and possibly Chris Wood, although I do see Jay Rodriguez starting for more of a threat on the counter.

Barnes, who has four goals already this season, is undoubtedly one of the most underrated players in the Premier League. With limited creativity within this Burnley side, the uncapped Austrian usually has little to work with and has to deal with his side having little of the ball in most games. Nevertheless, his finishing is fantastic and he’s a striker who can score a variety of goals, as shown in the past two weeks with his poachers finish at Arsenal and then his 25-yard half-volley at Molineux last Sunday.

One contest I’m particularly looking forward to is TAA v Dwight McNeil down the Burnley left. Although McNeil may face limited opportunities to get forward on Saturday, I think that if Burnley create something, it’ll be from the left flank. McNeil has displayed his ability to beat defenders 1v1 and Alexander-Arnold, for all his attacking talent, isn’t the full package defensively and we’ve seen him get caught out of position on occasions. I’d like Dyche to be brave with McNeil and allow the 19-year-old to stay high and fill the space left by the Liverpool right-back when he inevitably wanders into Burnley’s final-third.

Team News        

Robbie Brady and Steven Defour remain out for the home side whilst Johann Berg Gudmundsson missed Burnley’s Carabao Cup tie against Sunderland in midweek, he’s a doubt for this one.

As for Liverpool, Naby Keita is once again a doubt with a hip injury whilst Alisson and Nathaniel Clyne are out. Adrian, the summer signing from West Ham, will retain his place in goal.

Potential Burnley Starting XI: Pope, Lowton, Mee, Tarkowski, Pieters, Lennon, Westwood, Cork, McNeil, Barnes, Rodriguez.

Potential Liverpool Starting XI: Adrian, Alexander-Arnold, Van Dijk, Matip, Robertson, Fabinho, Henderson, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Salah, Firmino, Mane.

Head To Head

  • All-time: Burnley-37, Draw-28, Liverpool-55.
  • The home side have won just one of the previous ten meetings, a 2-0 win at Turf Moor back in 2016.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Ashley Barnes can become the first Burnley player to score in five consecutive PL matches, and a third of his strikes in the competition have come against last season's top six sides.
  • Barnes is the joint-second leading scorer this season with 4 goals. Liverpool’s top scorer, Mo Salah, is third with 3.
  • With an xG of just 2.9, Barnes has certainly over-performed in front of goal this season.
  • Burnley accumulated just 4 points against the top six last season, with their only points at Turf Moor coming from a 2-1 win against Spurs.
  • In 10 combined appearances against Burnley, Liverpool’s deadly front-three have 7 goals between them.
  • Liverpool are the only side to win all three of their league games.
  • The Reds didn’t drop points away from home against sides that finished in the bottom half last season and overall, conceded just 12 goals on the road.

Betting Odds

  • Burnley 19/2
  • Draw 9/2
  • Liverpool 4/11

The Verdict

Burnley at nearly 10/1 is a price that could tempt some. However, I don’t see the Clarets beating Liverpool at Turf Moor on Saturday, although they should trouble Adrian and the Liverpool defence with the form that Ashley Barnes is in at the moment. With the outright markets out of the window, I’m first going to back BTTS at evens. In any given game, I’d back Liverpool’s front three to score and although James Tarkowski and Ben Mee are brilliant centre-halves, I think they’re short (not literally) at full-back.  Sadio Mane and Mo Salah should be too much for Matthew Lowton and Erik Pieters. At the other end of the pitch, Liverpool have surprisingly struggled and the likes of Barnes and Rodriguez/Wood may get some joy despite coming up against Europe’s premier centre-back in Virgil van Dijk. Dyche’s direct style together with Burnley’s personnel upfront is a great combination and they should come into this one with confidence after impressive performances at the Emirates and Molineux.

The other bet I have lined up for this one is Matthew Lowton to be carded at 7/2. The 30-year-old right-back will face up against a frighteningly quick Sadio Mane and a surging Andy Robertson from left-back. Although he’ll likely get support from his right midfielder, I don’t see Lowton keeping up with Mane and Robertson for 90 minutes. In Burnley’s three games so far, Lowton has averaged over two tackles a game and a foul per game as well. I expect these averages to increase after Saturday’s game and I also see the right-back picking up his first booking of the season.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt – BTTS – Evens (Betfred)
  • 1pt – Matthew Lowton to be carded – 7/2 (SkyBet)