Cardiff v Bournemouth Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 02/02/19

Cardiff v Bournemouth Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

James Cormack (@jamesxyyx) previews Cardiff City v AFC Bournemouth and provides us with his best bets for Saturday evening’s Premier League clash by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

  • 2019 Profit & Loss: +1.66pts

Cardiff City v AFC Bournemouth Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 02/01/19
  • Time: 17:30
  • Venue: Cardiff City Stadium
  • Channel: BT Sport 1

Eddie Howe takes his Bournemouth side to South Wales this weekend to take on a Cardiff side that are desperate for three points.

Neil Warnock hasn’t had it easy in his return to the top-flight and he will want to get rid of the notion that he’s a manager that gets teams promoted, only for them to go straight back down again.

His Cardiff side come into this one in poor form. They haven’t won since their impressive 1-0 at Leicester which ended 2018 and have dropped points against Huddersfield and Newcastle in recent weeks. This Cardiff side have problems at both ends of the pitch, holding the second worst defensive and scoring records in the PL so far this season.

Cardiff City fans will be hoping for a spirited display from the home side this Saturday evening in what is set to be a highly emotional game for all involved with the club. This fixture being the first home game for Cardiff since the tragedy involving recent record-signing Emiliano Sala.

It will be a difficult ask for them to get all three points against a Bournemouth side coming into this one full of confidence.

After winning just 2 of 12 games in a stretch running from the start of November to the middle of January, Bournemouth have picked up two vital wins against West Ham and Chelsea in their most recent fixtures.

Their 4-0 triumph over Maurizio Sarri’s Chelsea in mid-week was certainly a turn-up with Bournemouth’s counter-attacking style matching up perfectly against what has generally been Sarri’s slow-paced, possession style so far this season. Bournemouth’s two front-men, David Brooks and Josh King, were successful in nullifying the effectiveness of Jorginho, who has proven to become less and even more less effective as the season’s gone on, and the pair were superb when they found themselves in countless 2v2 scenarios against David Luiz and Antonio Rudiger.

David Brooks, who showed great skill and composure with his goal on Wednesday, has all the makings to be an elite footballer in this league. His style reminds me a lot of Manchester City’s Riyad Mahrez and his tally of 6 goals and 4 assists in the PL so far this season highlights his effectiveness in the final third. Expect him to be a factor on Saturday.

Team News

Sean Morrison remains sidelined as he recovers from appendix surgery for the home side, while the on-loan Harry Arter is ineligible to face his parent club. Star man Victor Camarasa is also set to return after missing out mid-week.

As for Bournemouth; Simon Francis and Lewis Cook are long-term absentees, whilst Callum Wilson and Jefferson Lerma are doubts for this fixture.

Potential Cardiff Starting XI: Etheridge, Peltier, Ecuele Manga, Bamba, Bennett, Gunnarsson, Paterson, Camarasa, Ralls, Hoilett, Niasse.

Potential Bournemouth Starting XI: Boruc, Clyne, Cook, Ake, Smith, Stanislas, Surman, Gosling, Fraser, Brooks, King.

Head To Head

  • All-time: Cardiff-14, Draw-11, Bournemouth-19.
  • The meeting earlier this season was the first time these two sides have faced each other in the top-flight.

Key Stats & Facts

  • Reverse fixture at the Vitality ended in a 2-0 win for the Cherries.
  • Bournemouth have won back-to-back games, they are yet to win three in a row this season.
  • The away side haven’t won on the road since a 3-0 against Fulham back in October; they have lost 6 away games in a row.
  • Prior to their two most recent clean sheets, Bournemouth had conceded 12 in 3 games.
  • The away side will be without their top scorer Callum Wilson who has scored 10 PL goals, they will be hoping that Josh King (8 PL goals) will be adding to his tally this weekend.
  • Ryan Fraser is the joint leading assister in the league this season with 9, level with Eden Hazard.
  • Cardiff hold the second worst defensive record in the league with 46 goals conceded in 24 games, Bournemouth have the worst defensive record amongst teams outside the bottom four with 42 goals against.
  • Cardiff also hold the second worst scoring record with just 20 goals scored.
  • Scotsman Callum Paterson is the Bluebirds top scorer this season with 4 PL goals.
  • Cardiff are the biggest underachievers in front of goal in the PL- xG: 24.15, the 4.15 difference is the largest in the PL.
  • Cardiff have won once in their last 8, their last home win came back at the start of December with a 1-0 win over Southampton.

Betting Odds

  • Cardiff 23/10
  • Draw 5/2
  • Bournemouth 11/8

The Verdict

I’m expecting an electric atmosphere at the Cardiff City Stadium on Saturday evening and Cardiff to win at over 2/1 could be good value for some. However, I really like this Bournemouth team and I think the transfer of Nathaniel Clyne is an underrated move. Already they look more sure at the back, keeping two clean sheets in the 3 games he has started for the Cherries. I think the outright market is difficult for this one, I would back Bournemouth but it’s more of a hunch than anything else.

Instead, I’m looking at an anytime scorer for this one. I think Bournemouth may score a couple against this poor Cardiff backline and Josh King has got the be the best bet to get on the scoresheet at 9/4. The Norwegian has rediscovered his goal-scoring form as of late, being awarded MOTM in Bournemouth’s last two games, scoring 3 in the process. The striker is set to lead the line with Callum Wilson out and with the creativity behind him in the form of Brooks, Fraser and Stanislas, I have no doubt that King will have his fair share of chances in this one.

Another bet I like is BTTS in the first half at 18/5. As I’ve previously said, the atmosphere should be electric for this game and I’m expecting the Cardiff players to respond with an early goal. Remember, this Bournemouth defence boasts the worst record for teams from 15th upwards. I also like the away side to get on the scoresheet in the opening period. The Cherries have a pretty good record in the first half, scoring 20 in 24 and they are also going up against a pretty poor backline that is still without Sean Morrison.

Recommended Bets

  • 1pt – Josh King anytime- 9/4 (betway)
  • 1pt – BTTS 1st half- 18/5 (Coral)