Chelsea v Everton Betting Preview, Odds & Tips | 11/11/18

Chelsea v Everton Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

Dave South (@LockupTipster) previews Chelsea v Everton and provides us with his best bets for Sunday’s 14:15pm kick off by analysing team news, potential line-ups, head-to-head, key stats and facts and more.

Chelsea v Everton Betting Preview, Odds & Tips

  • Date: 11/11/18
  • Time: 14:15
  • Venue: Stamford Bridge
  • Channel: Sky Sports PL

Chelsea come into this off the back of a single goal victory to head maximum points in the Europa League on Thursday night assured of topping the group now with two games left in the group stage.

Everton are a big price at 15/2 considering Chelsea played on Thursday, however, playing at the bridge is like the home side’s fortress, so taking anything from this game will be a tall task and see plenty of accumulators involving Chelsea to continue their unbeaten run.

Team News

Aside from Cesc Fabregas, who missed Thursday's 1-0 win away to BATE Borisov through illness, Chelsea have a fully fit squad ahead of Sunday's clash with Everton at Stamford Bridge.

Eden Hazard got 60 minutes of playing time under his belt in the Europa League and should be ready to play even longer here.

Alvaro Morata was one of several first-team players given the night off by Maurizio Sarri in midweek and they will all return here.

Mateo Kovacic will hope to start against Everton after being overlooked from the starting XI in Chelsea's last two games.

Yerry Mina will make his highly anticipated full Everton debut on Sunday with Kurt Zouma unable to play against his parent club.

Leighton Baines should recover from a stomach complaint in time to make the bench for Everton on Sunday.

Phil Jagielka and Jonjoe Kenny continue to miss out for the away side.

Potential Chelsea Starting XI: Arrizabalaga, Azpilicueta, Rudiger, Luiz, Alonson, Kovacicm Jorginho, Kante, Willian, Morata, Hazard

Potential Everton Starting XI: Pickford, Digne, Mina, Keane, Coleman, Gomes, Gueye, Bernard, Siguardsson, Walcott and Richarlison

Head to Head

  • Chelsea 4-1-1 (Last six)

Key Stats & Facts

  • Chelsea are unbeaten in the league this season boasting one of the best defensive records in the season thus far.
  • Everton have lost once in the Premier League in the last five matches.
  • Chelsea have netted almost 2.5 goals per game this season.
  • Chelsea have conceded just once in the last four meetings with Everton.
  • There have been over 2.5 goals netted in five of Everton’s last six away games.

Betting Odds

  • Chelsea – 4/9 William Hill
  • Draw – 17/4 Unibet
  • Everton – 15/2 Betfred

The Verdict

Despite Chelsea only conceding eight goals in eleven games, all but one goal conceded has actually been at home, which was a surprise to research more closely.

Everton have netted in all but one on the road this season, having netted at least twice on three of the five on the road. This leaned me to look towards the both to score market, where the pricing ranges from 4/6 – 4/5, but most punting around the 8/11 mark.

Torn between the both to score, but topping up the price with over 2.5 goals pays 11/10 creating a situation of risk mitigation here. Both to net at best priced 4/5 represents a 55.55% chance, whereas adding a third goal to the mix implies a 47.62% chance. Previous meeting tendencies does not make this a worthy bet, however on actual recent form it does. I would not put you off either, but greening up between the two markets, I’ll take the easier of the two.

However, to close the potential argument with the above, if the game was sat at 1-1 in the second half, would you punt a 1/6 on a third goal? The difference between the BTTS and BTTS and over 2.5 goals, although if either were 2-0 up, for the bet to still win would require a third goal, so a balanced argument there on how to view this game!

Recommended Bets

  • Both to score 4/5 (Sportingbet – minimum price acceptable)